The contest between Annagh United and H&W Welders is as balanced as the model’s numbers suggest. The home side, fresh from a 2-0 win over Moyola Park, has a 41 % chance to triumph, 26 % of a draw and 33 % for the visitors. The model’s pick is a home win, and the average goal output is three, with the most likely total of two goals at 23 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.1 % chance, a tidy reflection of the evenly matched sides.
Annagh United, playing at home against a weaker opponent, averages 1.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. H&W Welders, on a two-game winning run away from home, have a higher offensive output of 2.5 goals per game but concede 1.62. This contrast hints at a tight contest where both teams could find the net.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.7 %), Under 6.5 (96.5 %), Away under 3.5 goals (94.4 %), Home under 3.5 goals (91.9 %), Under 5.5 (91.2 %), Home +2 handicap (84.5 %), Away under 2.5 goals (82.8 %) and Over 1.5 (81.7 %). Each pick carries its own probability, with no overlap in win chances.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Annagh United win
41.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders win
32.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Annagh United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.37
1.88
1.29
1.31
1.46
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.92
1.62
2.12
1.50
1.60
1.80
vs Weaker (17)
1.41
1.18
1.67
1.11
1.12
1.25
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
H&W Welders
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
1.20
2.56
1.19
2.07
1.21
vs Stronger (17)
2.29
1.35
2.11
1.11
2.50
1.62
vs Similar (7)
1.14
1.71
1.50
2.25
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
3.83
0.17
5.33
0.00
2.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.7%
Under 1.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.5%
Under 2.5
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.1%
Under 3.5
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.9%
No
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.8%
1-0
6.7%
2-2
6.3%
2-0
6.3%
0-0
5.9%
0-1
5.7%
Annagh United goals ↓
H&W Welders goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
5.7%
4.9%
2.3%
0.8%
1
6.7%
12%
7.8%
3.7%
1.3%
2
6.3%
8.9%
6.3%
3.0%
1.1%
3
3.4%
4.8%
3.4%
1.6%
0.6%
4
1.4%
1.9%
1.4%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Annagh United goals (down), columns = H&W Welders goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Annagh United is 0.40 points worse than H&W Welders in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 2.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Annagh United is 0.60 goals better than H&W Welders in terms of goals scored per game (2.40 vs 1.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Annagh United is 1.20 goals worse than H&W Welders in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 0.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Annagh United or Draw
67.3%
Avg Implied -
41%
26%
33%
covers Annagh United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annagh United or H&W Welders
73.8%
Avg Implied -
41%
26%
33%
covers Annagh United + H&W Welders
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or H&W Welders
58.9%
Avg Implied -
41%
26%
33%
covers Draw + H&W Welders
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Annagh United over/under 0.5
Over
80.1%
Under
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 1.5
Over
48.0%
Under
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 2.5
Over
22.0%
Under
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 3.5
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5
Over
75.9%
Under
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5
Over
41.5%
Under
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5
Over
17.2%
Under
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 3.5
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Annagh United, so a minus line means Annagh United give that many goals of a start and H&W Welders receive them. At -1, Annagh United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Annagh United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Annagh United)
Annagh United -2
8.8%
Draw -2
12.7%
H&W Welders +2
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Annagh United)
Annagh United -1
21.4%
Draw -1
19.7%
H&W Welders +1
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Annagh United)
Annagh United +1
67.3%
Draw +1
17.2%
H&W Welders -1
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Annagh United)
Annagh United +2
84.5%
Draw +2
9.8%
H&W Welders -2
5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Annagh United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.57
1.00
0.35
0.69
0.85
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.62
1.00
0.25
1.00
1.20
vs Weaker (17)
0.76
0.53
1.00
0.44
0.50
0.62
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
H&W Welders
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.70
1.31
0.62
1.07
0.79
vs Stronger (17)
1.35
0.76
1.22
0.44
1.50
1.12
vs Similar (7)
0.71
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.17
2.00
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.0%
Under 0.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.7%
Under 1.5
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.7%
Under 2.5
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Annagh United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.5%
Under
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.8%
Under
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.4%
Under
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Annagh United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
0.88
0.94
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.92
1.00
1.12
1.25
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (17)
0.65
0.65
0.67
0.67
0.62
0.62
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
H&W Welders
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.50
1.25
0.56
1.00
0.43
vs Stronger (17)
0.94
0.59
0.89
0.67
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.71
0.50
0.75
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (6)
2.50
0.00
3.33
0.00
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.1%
Under 0.5
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
46.1%
Under 1.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.1%
Under 2.5
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Annagh United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.1%
Under
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.4%
Under
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.7%
Under
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.2%
Under
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →