PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Annagh United vs Institute Prediction & Stats

Date: 26/09/2026
Time: 14:00
Annagh United
Annagh United
Vs
45%
26%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Institute
Institute
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Annagh United are tipped to lift the trophy at home, the model’s pick for a home win. The match is expected to be a moderate affair with an average of 2.9 goals, and the most likely total of 2 goals carries a 24% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.3% probability, reflecting the balanced attacking output of both sides.

Annagh’s home form shows they average 2.14 goals scored and 1.71 conceded against similarly matched opponents, while Institute’s away record is 1.5 scored and 1.88 conceded. Home win, draw and away win probabilities stand at 45%, 26% and 28% respectively.

The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.9%), Under 6.5 (96.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.8%), Under 5.5 (92.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.2%), Home +2 handicap (87.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (86.1%) and Under 4.5 (82.4%). Annagh are coming off a win, whereas Institute return after a defeat.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Annagh United win
45.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Institute win
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Annagh UnitedAnnagh United

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L02L04L23L21W14L42W22D20W31WH·QUE11/04H·LIM18/04A·H&W24/04H·CRU28/04A·CRU01/05A·NEW08/08H·RAT11/08A·DUN15/08H·MOY22/08A·BAL29/08← PremiershipChampionship →
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.371.881.291.311.46
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.921.622.121.501.601.80
vs Weaker (17)1.411.181.671.111.121.25
Clean sheet %23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

InstituteInstitute

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W00D30W31W41W10W12L00D14L13LA·DUN28/03H·WAR04/04H·BAL11/04H·ARD18/04A·ARM25/04A·STR07/08H·BAL11/08H·LOU15/08A·QUE22/08H·NEW29/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.331.671.201.531.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.431.501.570.861.292.14
vs Weaker (16)1.751.191.751.501.750.88
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.4%
Under 1.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.5%
Under 2.5
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.1%
Under 3.5
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
59.7%
No
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
7.6%
2-0
7.3%
1-2
7.2%
0-0
6.4%
2-2
6.0%
0-1
5.6%
Annagh United goals ↓
Institute goals →
01234
06.4%5.6%4.3%1.8%0.6%
17.6%12%7.2%3.1%1.0%
27.3%9.3%6.0%2.6%0.8%
34.0%5.2%3.3%1.4%0.5%
41.7%2.2%1.4%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Annagh United goals (down), columns = Institute goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Annagh United is 1.20 points better than Institute in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.80).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Annagh United is 1.60 goals better than Institute in terms of goals scored per game (2.40 vs 0.80).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Annagh United and Institute are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.80).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Annagh United or Draw
71.6%
Avg Implied -
45%
26%
28%
covers Annagh United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annagh United or Institute
73.7%
Avg Implied -
45%
26%
28%
covers Annagh United + Institute
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Institute
54.7%
Avg Implied -
45%
26%
28%
covers Draw + Institute
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Annagh United over/under 0.5
Over
81.1%
Under
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 1.5
Over
49.6%
Under
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 2.5
Over
23.3%
Under
76.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 3.5
Over
8.8%
Under
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 0.5
Over
72.3%
Under
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 1.5
Over
36.7%
Under
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 2.5
Over
13.9%
Under
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 3.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Annagh United, so a minus line means Annagh United give that many goals of a start and Institute receive them. At -1, Annagh United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Annagh United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Annagh United)
Annagh United -2
10.3%
Draw -2
14.0%
Institute +2
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Annagh United)
Annagh United -1
24.3%
Draw -1
20.9%
Institute +1
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Annagh United)
Annagh United +1
71.6%
Draw +1
15.9%
Institute -1
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Annagh United)
Annagh United +2
87.4%
Draw +2
8.3%
Institute -2
4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Annagh UnitedAnnagh United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L03L21W10W12L30W12L00D11DH·QUE11/04H·LIM18/04A·H&W24/04H·CRU28/04A·CRU01/05A·NEW08/08H·RAT11/08A·DUN15/08H·MOY22/08A·BAL29/08← PremiershipChampionship →
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.571.000.350.690.85
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.000.621.000.251.001.20
vs Weaker (17)0.760.531.000.440.500.62
Clean sheet %57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

InstituteInstitute

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D30W10W10W10W00D00D11D01LA·DUN28/03H·WAR04/04H·BAL11/04H·ARD18/04A·ARM25/04A·STR07/08H·BAL11/08H·LOU15/08A·QUE22/08H·NEW29/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.470.800.400.530.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.570.570.430.140.711.00
vs Weaker (16)0.750.381.120.620.380.12
Clean sheet %67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Annagh United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Annagh UnitedAnnagh United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L01L01L02L11D02L12L10W20W20WH·QUE11/04H·LIM18/04A·H&W24/04H·CRU28/04A·CRU01/05A·NEW08/08H·RAT11/08A·DUN15/08H·MOY22/08A·BAL29/08← PremiershipChampionship →
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.800.880.940.620.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.921.001.121.250.600.60
vs Weaker (17)0.650.650.670.670.620.62
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

InstituteInstitute

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D00D21W31W00D12L00D03L12LA·DUN28/03H·WAR04/04H·BAL11/04H·ARD18/04A·ARM25/04A·STR07/08H·BAL11/08H·LOU15/08A·QUE22/08H·NEW29/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.870.870.801.000.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.860.931.140.710.571.14
vs Weaker (16)1.000.810.620.881.380.75
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Annagh United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.9%-------
Under 6.596.9%-------
Away under 3.5 goals95.9%-------
Under 5.592.1%-------
Home under 3.5 goals91.2%-------
Home +2 handicap87.4%-------
Away under 2.5 goals86.1%-------
Under 4.582.4%-------
Home over 0.5 goals81.1%-------
Over 1.580.4%-------
Home under 2.5 goals76.7%-------
Away +2 handicap75.7%-------
Home or Away73.7%-------
Away over 0.5 goals72.3%-------
Home or Draw71.6%-------
Home +1 handicap71.6%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
AU wins
2
Draws
1
INS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Annagh United vs Institute · H/A from AU
DateH/AGameScore
17/02/26HAU Vs Institute3-1
15/11/25AInstitute Vs AU1-0
27/09/25HAU Vs Institute2-0
22/03/25AInstitute Vs AU2-6
02/11/24AInstitute Vs AU0-0
31/08/24HAU Vs Institute2-1
13/04/24AInstitute Vs AU0-2
13/01/24HAU Vs Institute0-0

Annagh UnitedAnnagh United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26ABallinamallard United Vs AU1-3
22/08/26HAU Vs Moyola Park2-0
15/08/26ADundela Vs AU2-2
11/08/26HAU Vs Rathfriland4-2
08/08/26ANewington Youth Vs AU4-1
01/05/26ACrusaders FC Vs AU1-2
28/04/26HAU Vs Crusaders FC2-3
24/04/26AH&W Welders Vs AU4-0
18/04/26HAU Vs Limavady United0-2
11/04/26HAU Vs Queen's University0-4

InstituteInstitute

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HINS Vs Newry City AFC1-3
22/08/26AQueen's University Vs INS4-1
15/08/26HINS Vs Loughgall0-0
11/08/26HINS Vs Ballinamallard United1-2
07/08/26AStrabane Athletic Vs INS0-1
25/04/26AArmagh City Vs INS1-4
18/04/26HINS Vs Ards3-1
11/04/26HINS Vs Ballinamallard United3-0
04/04/26HINS Vs Warrenpoint Town0-0
28/03/26ADundela Vs INS1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Annagh United
Annagh United
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWW1.88
HomeLLLWW2.04
AwayLWLDW1.72
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%64%52%
AVG goals2.843.002.68
Over 1.5 %76%88%64%
Over 2.5 %52%48%56%
Over 3.5 %34%32%36%
Scored1.601.761.44
Conceded1.241.241.24
BTTS50%52%48%
Clean Sheet30%32%28%
Corners---
Cards---
Institute
Institute
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDLL1.46
HomeWWLDL1.48
AwayWWWWL1.43
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%41%43%
AVG goals3.043.112.96
Over 1.5 %74%70%78%
Over 2.5 %64%63%65%
Over 3.5 %38%37%39%
Scored1.581.631.52
Conceded1.461.481.43
BTTS56%56%57%
Clean Sheet28%33%22%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Newington YouthNewington Youth513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
2H&W WeldersH&W Welders512
80%
2.4
93+6
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.6
-
3Glenavon FCGlenavon FC510
60%
2.0
148+6
4.4
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.81.6
-
4QueenQueen's University510
60%
2.0
115+6
3.2
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5Annagh UnitedAnnagh United510
60%
2.0
129+3
4.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.8
-
6LoughgallLoughgall59
40%
1.8
107+3
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
7Newry City AFCNewry City AFC59
60%
1.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
8ArdsArds57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
10Moyola ParkMoyola Park57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United56
40%
1.2
58-3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12InstituteInstitute54
20%
0.8
49-5
2.6
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
13DundelaDundela53
0%
0.6
710-3
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
14Strabane AthleticStrabane Athletic53
20%
0.6
610-4
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
15Armagh CityArmagh City52
0%
0.4
37-4
2.0
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
16RathfrilandRathfriland50
0%
0.0
516-11
4.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.2
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

← all matches