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Annagh United vs Warrenpoint Town Result & Analysis

Date: 12/11/2022
Time: 15:00
Final 1-1
Annagh United
Annagh United
Vs
49%
28%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Warrenpoint Town
Warrenpoint Town
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Annagh United are tipped to win, with a 49% chance of triumph, a 28% chance of a draw and a 23% chance of Warrenpoint Town taking the points. The match is expected to see 2.5 goals on average, with the most likely total of two goals occurring 27% of the time. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.4% probability. Annagh United, playing at home against a weaker side, have averaged 2.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded, while Warrenpoint Town, away against a stronger opponent, average 1.17 scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 with a 76.0% chance and Over 1.5 with a 72.3% chance. The home win probability is 49%, the draw 28% and the away win 23%.

Results analysis

The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, Annagh United, failed to secure the win, ending the game in a 1-1 draw. The model had picked a home win with a 49% probability, but that call was wrong. The match finished 1-1, a draw that matched the model’s 28% draw probability. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a 76% chance, and its pick of Over 1.5 goals also hit, at 72.3%. Annagh United’s recent form, a two-game winning streak, was halted, while Warrenpoint Town, coming off a draw, managed to level the score. The final result confirmed the model’s predictions on total goals but not on the outcome.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Annagh United win✗ Miss
48.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town win✗ Miss
22.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Annagh UnitedAnnagh United

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W01L21W21W30W11D12L01L31W30WA·NEW03/09A·WAR23/09A·DUN27/09H·H&W01/10A·BAL08/10H·BAL15/10A·ARD22/10A·DER29/10H·NEW05/11H·DER08/11
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.860.862.000.711.711.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)2.141.142.001.002.251.25
vs Weaker (7)1.570.572.000.501.000.67
Clean sheet %21% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W21W21W10W11D20W20W01L32W11DA·DER27/08H·ARD03/09A·KNO17/09H·ANN23/09A·BAL01/10H·INS08/10H·LOU22/10A·DUN29/10H·H&W05/11H·BAL08/11
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.381.001.571.001.171.00
vs Stronger (12)1.421.001.671.001.171.00
vs Similar (1)1.001.001.001.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %31% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%10%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.3%
Under 1.5
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.3%
Under 2.5
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.0%
Under 3.5
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.7%
No
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.4%
1-0
11.4%
2-0
9.6%
0-0
9.5%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
6.8%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
4.9%
Annagh United goals ↓
Warrenpoint Town goals →
01234
09.5%6.8%3.9%1.3%0.3%
111%13%5.9%1.9%0.5%
29.6%9.3%4.5%1.5%0.4%
34.9%4.7%2.3%0.7%0.2%
41.8%1.8%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Annagh United goals (down), columns = Warrenpoint Town goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Loughgall
2.03
Warrenpoint Town
1.87
Annagh United
1.55
Dundela
1.53
Ards
1.47
Ballyclare Comrades
1.45
H&W Welders
1.45
Ballinamallard United
1.37
Dergview
1.08
Newington Youth
1.05
Institute
1.00
Knockbreda
1.00
Ballymacash Rangers
0.50
Annagh United is 0.32 points worse than Warrenpoint Town in terms of average points per game (1.55 vs 1.87).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Loughgall
1.97
Ards
1.89
H&W Welders
1.82
Warrenpoint Town
1.76
Ballyclare Comrades
1.74
Newington Youth
1.61
Annagh United
1.53
Dundela
1.50
Dergview
1.34
Knockbreda
1.32
Ballinamallard United
1.32
Institute
1.32
Ballymacash Rangers
1.00
Annagh United is 0.24 goals worse than Warrenpoint Town in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.76).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Loughgall
0.66
Annagh United
1.13
Warrenpoint Town
1.16
Dundela
1.53
Ballinamallard United
1.55
Institute
1.66
Ballyclare Comrades
1.66
H&W Welders
1.71
Dergview
1.79
Ards
1.97
Newington Youth
1.97
Ballymacash Rangers
2.00
Knockbreda
2.23
Annagh United is 0.03 goals better than Warrenpoint Town in terms of goals conceded per game (1.13 vs 1.16).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Annagh UnitedAnnagh United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D11D20W10W10W01L00D30W10WA·NEW03/09A·WAR23/09A·DUN27/09H·H&W01/10A·BAL08/10H·BAL15/10A·ARD22/10A·DER29/10H·NEW05/11H·DER08/11
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.860.291.290.000.430.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.860.571.330.000.501.00
vs Weaker (7)0.860.001.250.000.330.00
Clean sheet %71% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W01L10W00D01L00D20W00D20W10WA·DER27/08H·ARD03/09A·KNO17/09H·ANN23/09A·BAL01/10H·INS08/10H·LOU22/10A·DUN29/10H·H&W05/11H·BAL08/11
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.620.310.710.290.500.33
vs Stronger (12)0.580.330.670.330.500.33
vs Similar (1)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %69% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Annagh United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Annagh UnitedAnnagh United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W01L10W01L20W01L11D01L01L20WA·NEW03/09A·WAR23/09A·DUN27/09H·H&W01/10A·BAL08/10H·BAL15/10A·ARD22/10A·DER29/10H·NEW05/11H·DER08/11
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.570.710.711.290.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)1.290.570.671.001.750.25
vs Weaker (7)0.710.570.750.500.670.67
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W20W11D10W10W20W00D01L12L01LA·DER27/08H·ARD03/09A·KNO17/09H·ANN23/09A·BAL01/10H·INS08/10H·LOU22/10A·DUN29/10H·H&W05/11H·BAL08/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.690.860.710.670.67
vs Stronger (12)0.830.671.000.670.670.67
vs Similar (1)0.001.000.001.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %54% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Annagh United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.576.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.572.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
AU wins
0
Draws
1
WT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Annagh United vs Warrenpoint Town · H/A from AU
DateH/AGameScore
23/09/22AWarrenpoint Town Vs AU1-0

Annagh UnitedAnnagh United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/11/22HAU Vs Dergview3-0
05/11/22HAU Vs Newington Youth3-1
29/10/22ADergview Vs AU1-0
22/10/22AArds Vs AU2-1
15/10/22HAU Vs Ballyclare Comrades1-1
08/10/22ABallinamallard United Vs AU0-3
01/10/22HAU Vs H&W Welders2-1
27/09/22ADundela Vs AU1-2
23/09/22AWarrenpoint Town Vs AU1-0
03/09/22ANewington Youth Vs AU1-4

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/11/22HWT Vs Ballinamallard United1-1
05/11/22HWT Vs H&W Welders3-2
29/10/22ADundela Vs WT1-0
22/10/22HWT Vs Loughgall2-0
08/10/22HWT Vs Institute2-0
01/10/22ABallyclare Comrades Vs WT1-1
23/09/22HWT Vs Annagh United1-0
17/09/22AKnockbreda Vs WT1-2
03/09/22HWT Vs Ards2-1
27/08/22ADergview Vs WT0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Annagh United
Annagh United
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLWW2.07
HomeDWDWW2.43
AwayLWWLL1.71
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %64%71%57%
AVG goals2.712.712.71
Over 1.5 %86%100%71%
Over 2.5 %64%57%71%
Over 3.5 %14%14%14%
Scored1.862.001.71
Conceded0.860.711.00
BTTS64%71%57%
Clean Sheet21%29%14%
Corners---
Cards---
Warrenpoint Town
Warrenpoint Town
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWD1.85
HomeWWWWD2.29
AwayDWWDL1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%71%33%
AVG goals2.382.572.17
Over 1.5 %85%86%83%
Over 2.5 %38%43%33%
Over 3.5 %8%14%0%
Scored1.381.571.17
Conceded1.001.001.00
BTTS46%43%50%
Clean Sheet31%43%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LoughgallLoughgall3877
61%
2.0
7525+50
2.6
71%
50%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.7
-
2Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town3871
55%
1.9
6744+23
2.9
84%
53%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
3Annagh UnitedAnnagh United3859
45%
1.6
5843+15
2.7
84%
63%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
4DundelaDundela3858
47%
1.5
5758-1
3.0
74%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
5ArdsArds3856
45%
1.5
7275-3
3.9
89%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.92.0
-
6H&W WeldersH&W Welders3855
45%
1.4
6965+4
3.5
79%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
7Ballyclare ComradesBallyclare Comrades3855
37%
1.4
6663+3
3.4
84%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.7
-
8Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United3852
37%
1.4
5059-9
2.9
84%
55%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
9DergviewDergview3841
29%
1.1
5168-17
3.1
82%
66%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.8
-
10Newington YouthNewington Youth3840
29%
1.1
6175-14
3.6
89%
68%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.0
-
11KnockbredaKnockbreda4040
25%
1.0
5389-36
3.5
85%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.2
-
12InstituteInstitute3838
26%
1.0
5063-13
3.0
82%
45%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
13Ballymacash RangersBallymacash Rangers21
0%
0.5
24-2
3.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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