Annagh United are tipped to win, with a 49% chance of triumph, a 28% chance of a draw and a 23% chance of Warrenpoint Town taking the points. The match is expected to see 2.5 goals on average, with the most likely total of two goals occurring 27% of the time. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.4% probability. Annagh United, playing at home against a weaker side, have averaged 2.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded, while Warrenpoint Town, away against a stronger opponent, average 1.17 scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 with a 76.0% chance and Over 1.5 with a 72.3% chance. The home win probability is 49%, the draw 28% and the away win 23%.
Results analysis
The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, Annagh United, failed to secure the win, ending the game in a 1-1 draw. The model had picked a home win with a 49% probability, but that call was wrong. The match finished 1-1, a draw that matched the model’s 28% draw probability. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a 76% chance, and its pick of Over 1.5 goals also hit, at 72.3%. Annagh United’s recent form, a two-game winning streak, was halted, while Warrenpoint Town, coming off a draw, managed to level the score. The final result confirmed the model’s predictions on total goals but not on the outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Annagh United win✗ Miss
48.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town win✗ Miss
22.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Annagh United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.86
0.86
2.00
0.71
1.71
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
2.14
1.14
2.00
1.00
2.25
1.25
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
0.57
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
21% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Warrenpoint Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.38
1.00
1.57
1.00
1.17
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
1.42
1.00
1.67
1.00
1.17
1.00
vs Similar (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
31% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.3%
Under 1.5
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.3%
Under 2.5
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.0%
Under 3.5
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.7%
No
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.4%
1-0
11.4%
2-0
9.6%
0-0
9.5%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
6.8%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
4.9%
Annagh United goals ↓
Warrenpoint Town goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.5%
6.8%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.9%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.6%
9.3%
4.5%
1.5%
0.4%
3
4.9%
4.7%
2.3%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.8%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Annagh United goals (down), columns = Warrenpoint Town goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Loughgall
2.03
Warrenpoint Town
1.87
Annagh United
1.55
Dundela
1.53
Ards
1.47
Ballyclare Comrades
1.45
H&W Welders
1.45
Ballinamallard United
1.37
Dergview
1.08
Newington Youth
1.05
Institute
1.00
Knockbreda
1.00
Ballymacash Rangers
0.50
Annagh United is 0.32 points worse than Warrenpoint Town in terms of average points per game (1.55 vs 1.87).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Loughgall
1.97
Ards
1.89
H&W Welders
1.82
Warrenpoint Town
1.76
Ballyclare Comrades
1.74
Newington Youth
1.61
Annagh United
1.53
Dundela
1.50
Dergview
1.34
Knockbreda
1.32
Ballinamallard United
1.32
Institute
1.32
Ballymacash Rangers
1.00
Annagh United is 0.24 goals worse than Warrenpoint Town in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.76).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Loughgall
0.66
Annagh United
1.13
Warrenpoint Town
1.16
Dundela
1.53
Ballinamallard United
1.55
Institute
1.66
Ballyclare Comrades
1.66
H&W Welders
1.71
Dergview
1.79
Ards
1.97
Newington Youth
1.97
Ballymacash Rangers
2.00
Knockbreda
2.23
Annagh United is 0.03 goals better than Warrenpoint Town in terms of goals conceded per game (1.13 vs 1.16).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Annagh United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
0.29
1.29
0.00
0.43
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.86
0.57
1.33
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.00
1.25
0.00
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
71% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Warrenpoint Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.62
0.31
0.71
0.29
0.50
0.33
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.33
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
69% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Annagh United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Annagh United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.57
0.71
0.71
1.29
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.29
0.57
0.67
1.00
1.75
0.25
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.57
0.75
0.50
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Warrenpoint Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.69
0.86
0.71
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (12)
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.67
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
54% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Annagh United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →