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Annagh United vs Warrenpoint Town Result & Analysis

Date: 03/03/2026
Time: 19:45
Final 1-0
Annagh United
Annagh United
Vs
55%
26%
19%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Warrenpoint Town
Warrenpoint Town
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Annagh United are tipped to win, with a 55% chance of lifting the trophy, a 26% chance of a draw and a 19% chance of Warrenpoint Town taking the points. The model expects 2.6 goals on average, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 12.4% probability, though the final result will be a 1-0 home win. Annagh United, playing at home against a weaker side, have averaged 1.71 goals scored and 0.43 conceded, while Warrenpoint Town, on the road to a stronger opponent, have averaged 0.69 goals scored and 1.69 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 with a 75.0% chance, and Under 3.5 with a 72.9% chance. The model’s selection for the match outcome remains the Home win.

Results analysis

Annagh United extended their two-game winning run to finish 1-0 over Warrenpoint Town, a result that matched the model’s favourite of a home win, which it had predicted with a 55% probability. The model’s call was therefore correct. The suggested picks delivered a mixed outcome: the Over 1.5 selection, with a 75% chance, missed, while the Under 3.5 pick, backed by a 72.9% probability, hit. The final score of 1-0 confirmed the model’s most likely total of two goals, though the 2-goal prediction itself was not listed as a pick. Overall, the model’s predictions performed well, accurately identifying the winner and the total-goals range.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Annagh United win✓ Hit
55.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town win✗ Miss
18.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Annagh UnitedAnnagh United

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-551W01L31W03L32W01L30W31W00D21WA·NEW20/12H·BAL26/12A·LIM31/12A·LOU17/01H·NEW24/01A·QUE31/01H·ARM14/02H·INS17/02A·BAL21/02H·H&W28/02
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.630.901.930.791.381.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)2.000.922.141.141.830.67
vs Weaker (17)1.350.881.710.431.101.20
Clean sheet %33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W00D03L51W01L01L04L52W10W01LH·LOU20/12A·ARD26/12H·H&W30/12A·ARM17/01H·LIM31/01A·QUE10/02A·NEW14/02H·DUN21/02H·BAL24/02A·LOU28/02
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.371.791.291.251.44
vs Stronger (24)1.081.421.551.090.691.69
vs Similar (6)3.171.172.672.003.670.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%017%126%222%314%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.0%
Under 1.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.0%
Under 2.5
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.1%
Under 3.5
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.4%
No
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
1-0 ✓
11.2%
2-0
10.6%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.3%
3-0
6.0%
3-1
5.5%
0-1
5.5%
Annagh United goals ↓
Warrenpoint Town goals →
01234
08.3%5.5%3.0%0.9%0.2%
111%12%5.2%1.6%0.4%
211%9.7%4.5%1.4%0.3%
36.0%5.5%2.5%0.8%0.2%
42.6%2.4%1.1%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Annagh United goals (down), columns = Warrenpoint Town goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Limavady United
2.13
Annagh United
1.89
H&W Welders
1.74
Newington Youth
1.58
Institute
1.55
Queen's University
1.50
Loughgall
1.47
Ards
1.37
Warrenpoint Town
1.08
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Dundela
0.74
Armagh City
0.50
Annagh United is 0.82 points better than Warrenpoint Town in terms of average points per game (1.89 vs 1.08).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
H&W Welders
2.29
Newington Youth
2.03
Limavady United
1.82
Institute
1.55
Ards
1.47
Annagh United
1.45
Queen's University
1.34
Loughgall
1.32
Warrenpoint Town
1.18
Ballinamallard United
1.16
Dundela
1.13
Armagh City
0.79
Annagh United is 0.26 goals better than Warrenpoint Town in terms of goals scored per game (1.45 vs 1.18).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Limavady United
0.89
Loughgall
1.00
Annagh United
1.03
Queen's University
1.21
Institute
1.21
H&W Welders
1.26
Ards
1.34
Warrenpoint Town
1.39
Ballinamallard United
1.58
Newington Youth
1.63
Dundela
2.03
Armagh City
2.95
Annagh United is 0.37 goals better than Warrenpoint Town in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.39).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Annagh UnitedAnnagh United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W00D10W01L20W01L00D10W00D11DA·NEW20/12H·BAL26/12A·LIM31/12A·LOU17/01H·NEW24/01A·QUE31/01H·ARM14/02H·INS17/02A·BAL21/02H·H&W28/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.300.930.140.750.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.150.381.000.141.330.67
vs Weaker (17)0.590.240.860.140.400.30
Clean sheet %70% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D02L11D00D00D02L41W10W00DH·LOU20/12A·ARD26/12H·H&W30/12A·ARM17/01H·LIM31/01A·QUE10/02A·NEW14/02H·DUN21/02H·BAL24/02A·LOU28/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.600.930.500.560.69
vs Stronger (24)0.540.620.820.450.310.77
vs Similar (6)1.500.501.330.671.670.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Annagh United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Annagh UnitedAnnagh United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L21W02L12L00D30W21W00D10WA·NEW20/12H·BAL26/12A·LIM31/12A·LOU17/01H·NEW24/01A·QUE31/01H·ARM14/02H·INS17/02A·BAL21/02H·H&W28/02
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.601.000.640.620.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.850.541.141.000.500.00
vs Weaker (17)0.760.650.860.290.700.90
Clean sheet %57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D01L40W01L01L02L11D00D01LH·LOU20/12A·ARD26/12H·H&W30/12A·ARM17/01H·LIM31/01A·QUE10/02A·NEW14/02H·DUN21/02H·BAL24/02A·LOU28/02
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.770.860.790.690.75
vs Stronger (24)0.540.790.730.640.380.92
vs Similar (6)1.670.671.331.332.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Annagh United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.0%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.572.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (5)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AC (2)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HW (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
1
AU wins
1
Draws
3
WT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Annagh United vs Warrenpoint Town · H/A from AU
DateH/AGameScore
20/09/25AWarrenpoint Town Vs AU0-1
29/04/23AWarrenpoint Town Vs AU2-1
18/02/23HAU Vs Warrenpoint Town0-1
12/11/22HAU Vs Warrenpoint Town1-1
23/09/22AWarrenpoint Town Vs AU1-0

Annagh UnitedAnnagh United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/02/26HAU Vs H&W Welders2-1
21/02/26ABallinamallard United Vs AU0-0
17/02/26HAU Vs Institute3-1
14/02/26HAU Vs Armagh City3-0
31/01/26AQueen's University Vs AU1-0
24/01/26HAU Vs Newington Youth3-2
17/01/26ALoughgall Vs AU3-0
31/12/25ALimavady United Vs AU1-3
26/12/25HAU Vs Ballinamallard United0-1
20/12/25ANewington Youth Vs AU1-5

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/02/26ALoughgall Vs WT1-0
24/02/26HWT Vs Ballinamallard United1-0
21/02/26HWT Vs Dundela5-2
14/02/26ANewington Youth Vs WT4-0
10/02/26AQueen's University Vs WT1-0
31/01/26HWT Vs Limavady United0-1
17/01/26AArmagh City Vs WT1-5
30/12/25HWT Vs H&W Welders0-3
26/12/25AArds Vs WT0-0
20/12/25HWT Vs Loughgall1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Annagh United
Annagh United
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDW2.02
HomeLWWWW2.21
AwayWWLLD1.85
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %64%71%58%
AVG goals2.983.082.88
Over 1.5 %76%83%69%
Over 2.5 %56%54%58%
Over 3.5 %32%33%31%
Scored1.902.001.81
Conceded1.081.081.08
BTTS44%50%38%
Clean Sheet38%38%38%
Corners---
Cards---
Warrenpoint Town
Warrenpoint Town
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWL1.58
HomeWLLWW1.92
AwayDWLLL1.27
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%58%35%
AVG goals2.942.962.92
Over 1.5 %72%75%69%
Over 2.5 %50%54%46%
Over 3.5 %34%33%35%
Scored1.681.831.54
Conceded1.261.121.38
BTTS52%54%50%
Clean Sheet24%29%19%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Limavady UnitedLimavady United3881
63%
2.1
6934+35
2.7
68%
47%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.9
-
2Annagh UnitedAnnagh United3872
58%
1.9
5539+16
2.5
71%
45%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.0
-
3H&W WeldersH&W Welders3866
50%
1.7
8748+39
3.6
92%
76%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.3
-
4Newington YouthNewington Youth3860
47%
1.6
7762+15
3.7
87%
74%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
5InstituteInstitute3859
45%
1.6
5946+13
2.8
71%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.2
-
6QueenQueen's University3857
39%
1.5
5146+5
2.6
76%
39%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.2
-
7LoughgallLoughgall3856
37%
1.5
5038+12
2.3
74%
42%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.0
-
8ArdsArds3852
39%
1.4
5651+5
2.8
74%
55%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town3841
29%
1.1
4553-8
2.6
58%
39%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
10Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United3838
24%
1.0
4460-16
2.7
68%
55%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
11DundelaDundela3828
13%
0.7
4377-34
3.2
89%
68%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
12Armagh CityArmagh City3819
11%
0.5
30112-82
3.7
87%
71%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.9
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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