Pythia gives Antalyaspor a 38% win probability against Kocaelispor in the Turkey: Süper Lig on 2026-05-17, with 31% for the draw and 32% for Kocaelispor. The model estimates around 2.3 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.4%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (96%), Over 21.5 fouls (91%), Over 2.5 cards (88%), Over 23.5 fouls (82%).
Results analysis
Antalyaspor finished 1-0 against Kocaelispor (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 38% home win, 31% draw and 32% away win. Picks that landed: Over 19.5 fouls (96%), Over 21.5 fouls (91%), Over 2.5 cards (88%), Over 23.5 fouls (82%), Under 3.5 (79%), Under 11.5 corners (78%), Over 3.5 cards (74%), Over 25.5 fouls (70%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Antalyaspor win✓ Hit
37.8%
Avg Implied 61.2% · @ 1.50
Edge
-23.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.6%
Avg Implied 23.1% · @ 3.97
Edge
+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kocaelispor win✗ Miss
31.6%
Avg Implied 15.6% · @ 5.88
Edge
+16.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Antalyaspor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.63
1.20
1.80
0.47
1.47
vs Stronger (14)
1.21
2.07
1.33
2.11
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (16)
0.50
1.25
1.00
1.33
0.20
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Kocaelispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kocaelispor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.00
1.07
0.80
0.73
1.20
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.94
1.06
1.25
0.75
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.80
3.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Antalyaspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
69.3%
Under 1.5
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.7%
@ 1.88-7.7%
Under 2.5
58.3%
@ 1.83+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.0%
Under 3.5
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.9%
No
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
10.9%
1-0 ✓
10.5%
0-1
9.3%
2-1
8.1%
2-0
7.3%
1-2
7.3%
0-2
5.9%
Antalyaspor goals ↓
Kocaelispor goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.3%
5.9%
2.2%
0.6%
1
11%
14%
7.3%
2.7%
0.7%
2
7.3%
8.1%
4.5%
1.7%
0.5%
3
3.0%
3.4%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Antalyaspor goals (down), columns = Kocaelispor goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Galatasaray
2.26
Fenerbahçe
2.18
Trabzonspor
2.03
Beşiktaş
1.76
Başakşehir
1.68
Göztepe
1.62
Samsunspor
1.50
Rizespor
1.21
Konyaspor
1.18
Kocaelispor
1.09
Alanyaspor
1.09
Gaziantep FK
1.09
Kasımpaşa
1.03
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.00
Eyüpspor
0.97
Antalyaspor
0.94
Kayserispor
0.88
Fatih Karagümrük
0.88
Antalyaspor is 0.15 points worse than Kocaelispor in terms of average points per game (0.94 vs 1.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Galatasaray
2.26
Fenerbahçe
2.26
Trabzonspor
1.79
Beşiktaş
1.74
Başakşehir
1.71
Rizespor
1.35
Samsunspor
1.35
Konyaspor
1.26
Gaziantep FK
1.26
Göztepe
1.24
Alanyaspor
1.21
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.06
Eyüpspor
0.97
Antalyaspor
0.97
Kasımpaşa
0.97
Fatih Karagümrük
0.91
Kayserispor
0.79
Kocaelispor
0.76
Antalyaspor is 0.21 goals better than Kocaelispor in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 0.76).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Galatasaray
0.88
Göztepe
0.94
Başakşehir
1.03
Fenerbahçe
1.09
Kocaelispor
1.12
Trabzonspor
1.15
Beşiktaş
1.18
Alanyaspor
1.21
Samsunspor
1.32
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.38
Eyüpspor
1.41
Kasımpaşa
1.44
Konyaspor
1.47
Rizespor
1.53
Fatih Karagümrük
1.59
Antalyaspor
1.62
Gaziantep FK
1.71
Kayserispor
1.82
Antalyaspor is 0.50 goals worse than Kocaelispor in terms of goals conceded per game (1.62 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Galatasaray
62%
Fenerbahçe
59%
Beşiktaş
56%
Trabzonspor
55%
Başakşehir
54%
Samsunspor
54%
Konyaspor
52%
Rizespor
50%
Gaziantep FK
50%
Kocaelispor
50%
Alanyaspor
48%
Eyüpspor
48%
Kayserispor
47%
Fatih Karagümrük
45%
Antalyaspor
45%
Kasımpaşa
44%
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
43%
Göztepe
38%
Antalyaspor is 4.7 percentage points worse than Kocaelispor in terms of average possession (45% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Antalyaspor
For 4.3 · Against 5.7 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 3.8 · Total 6.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 14.8 · Total 28.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kocaelispor
For 3.6 · Against 3.9 · Total 7.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.7 · Against 13.0 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Antalyaspor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.5
9.1
4.3
4.5
4.1
27.1
29.4
24.9
vs Stronger (21)
9.0
9.3
8.7
4.1
3.7
4.5
26.9
27.8
25.9
vs Similar (29)
9.5
9.6
9.5
4.4
5.1
3.8
27.4
30.7
24.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
55%
59%
50%
56%
56%
56%
89%
95%
82%
% under line
45%
41%
50%
44%
44%
44%
11%
5%
18%
This opponent (Kocaelispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kocaelispor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.2
8.1
8.4
4.1
4.2
4.0
27.2
25.7
28.8
vs Stronger (11)
7.9
8.0
7.8
2.8
2.5
3.2
27.0
25.6
28.4
vs Similar (24)
7.8
8.5
7.3
4.5
4.4
4.5
27.5
26.1
28.5
vs Weaker (15)
9.3
7.8
12.5
4.5
5.1
3.7
27.0
25.4
30.2
% over line
31%
30%
32%
56%
52%
60%
87%
78%
95%
% under line
69%
70%
68%
44%
48%
40%
13%
22%
5%
This opponent (Antalyaspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Fenerbahçe
10.7
Kayserispor
10.0
Beşiktaş
9.9
Samsunspor
9.8
Gaziantep FK
9.8
Başakşehir
9.6
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
9.6
Konyaspor
9.5
Rizespor
9.4
Trabzonspor
9.3
Antalyaspor
9.2
Göztepe
9.1
Kasımpaşa
9.1
Eyüpspor
9.1
Galatasaray
8.9
Fatih Karagümrük
8.7
Kocaelispor
8.0
Alanyaspor
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Gaziantep FK
6.0
Fenerbahçe
5.9
Konyaspor
5.4
Kasımpaşa
5.2
Alanyaspor
5.1
Antalyaspor
5.1
Göztepe
5.1
Beşiktaş
5.0
Eyüpspor
4.9
Başakşehir
4.9
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
4.7
Rizespor
4.7
Kocaelispor
4.7
Trabzonspor
4.6
Kayserispor
4.6
Galatasaray
4.6
Samsunspor
4.6
Fatih Karagümrük
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fatih Karagümrük
29.0
Gaziantep FK
28.9
Kasımpaşa
27.8
Antalyaspor
27.1
Alanyaspor
26.9
Kocaelispor
26.7
Göztepe
26.7
Başakşehir
26.7
Rizespor
26.2
Eyüpspor
25.8
Trabzonspor
25.7
Fenerbahçe
25.6
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
25.5
Kayserispor
25.4
Samsunspor
25.3
Beşiktaş
25.3
Konyaspor
25.2
Galatasaray
23.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
44.5%
Under 9.5
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
73.5%
Under 3.5
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
90.9%
Under 21.5
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Antalyaspor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.70
0.47
0.47
0.27
0.93
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
0.79
0.56
0.67
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.25
0.62
0.33
0.17
0.20
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Kocaelispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kocaelispor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.33
0.60
0.27
0.33
0.40
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.38
0.50
0.33
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.41
0.62
0.25
0.33
0.56
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Antalyaspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Antalyaspor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Antalyaspor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Antalyaspor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kocaelispor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kocaelispor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kocaelispor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Antalyaspor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.93
0.73
1.33
0.20
0.53
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
1.29
0.78
1.44
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.25
0.62
0.67
1.17
0.00
0.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Kocaelispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kocaelispor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.67
0.47
0.53
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
0.62
0.00
0.67
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.65
0.62
0.50
0.33
0.78
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.80
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Antalyaspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Antalyaspor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Antalyaspor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Antalyaspor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kocaelispor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kocaelispor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kocaelispor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (23)
€260m
TRA (29)
€116m
GÖZ (28)
€80m
BAŞ (30)
€75m
SAM (26)
€56m
RIZ (45)
€49m
ALA (31)
€42m
KON (32)
€37m
EYÜ (35)
€36m
GF (30)
€30m
KAY (34)
€27m
ANT (29)
€22m
FK (32)
€21m
KOC (24)
€21m
Antalyaspor and Kocaelispor have a similar squad value (both €22m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (9)
€151m
TRA (11)
€48m
GÖZ (12)
€42m
BAŞ (10)
€36m
SAM (9)
€30m
RIZ (17)
€18m
ALA (12)
€15m
GF (12)
€15m
KON (10)
€15m
KAY (13)
€12m
FK (13)
€11m
EYÜ (14)
€10m
ANT (11)
€9m
KOC (10)
€7m
Antalyaspor's attack is €2m more valuable than Kocaelispor's (€9m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (4)
€43m
GÖZ (5)
€24m
TRA (8)
€23m
ALA (9)
€15m
BAŞ (6)
€13m
RIZ (9)
€10m
KON (8)
€8m
KOC (6)
€8m
SAM (5)
€8m
EYÜ (8)
€7m
GF (5)
€6m
KAY (7)
€5m
ANT (5)
€5m
FK (6)
€4m
Antalyaspor's midfield is €3m less valuable than Kocaelispor's (€5m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (10)
€66m
TRA (10)
€45m
BAŞ (14)
€26m
RIZ (19)
€21m
SAM (12)
€19m
EYÜ (13)
€18m
GÖZ (11)
€15m
KON (14)
€14m
ALA (10)
€11m
KAY (14)
€9m
GF (13)
€9m
ANT (13)
€8m
FK (13)
€6m
KOC (8)
€6m
Antalyaspor's defence is €2m more valuable than Kocaelispor's (€8m vs €6m).
Turkey: Süper Lig 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: Süper Lig stats & trends →