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APEA vs Digenis Morphou Result & Analysis

Date: 14/03/2026
Time: 13:30
Final 1-0
APEA
APEA
Vs
23%
24%
53%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Digenis Morphou
Digenis Morphou
Cyprus: 2. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The model projects a high-scoring encounter, with an average of 3.2 goals expected. The most probable total is three, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.7% chance. APEA’s home form shows they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.56 conceded against similar opposition, while Digenis Morphou, playing away, averages 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded against comparable teams. The model favours an away win, with probabilities of 23% for a home victory, 24% for a draw, and 53% for Digenis Morphou to come out on top. In addition, the model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals carries an 84.4% probability. Recent form hints at a story: APEA are on a three-game winning streak, having beaten Ethnikos Latsion 2-1, whereas Digenis Morphou is coming off a draw, 1-1 against AE Zakakiou. These attacking and defensive figures, coupled with the recent momentum, set the stage for a match where the away side is the favourite and a 1-1 result is the most likely score.

Results analysis

The upset came early, with APEA snatching a 1-0 victory to end their three-game winning streak. The pre-match favourite was the model’s pick for an away win, assigned a 53% probability, but that call proved wrong. The model’s selection for Over 1.5 goals, at 84.4%, also missed, as the match finished with a single goal. APEA’s home form was strong, with a 1.33 average of goals scored and 1.56 conceded, while Digenis Morphou had a slightly higher scoring average of 1.7 and 1.5 conceded. The final score of 1-0 confirmed a home win, leaving the model’s predictions off target.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

APEA win✓ Hit
22.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou win✗ Miss
53.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

APEAAPEA

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W02L23L11D31W01L02L01L10W11DH·ETH03/01A·NEA10/01H·AE 17/01A·DIG25/01H·AHI31/01H·HAL07/02A·SPA14/02H·IRA21/02A·ETH28/02A·AE 07/03
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.431.331.671.001.18
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.171.281.331.561.001.00
vs Weaker (5)1.202.001.332.001.002.00
Clean sheet %22% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Digenis Morphou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Digenis MorphouDigenis Morphou

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L02L51W11D22D15L12L20W32W40WH·PAE03/01A·SPA10/01H·AHI18/01H·APE25/01A·HAL31/01H·SPA07/02A·IRA14/02H·ETH21/02A·AE 28/02A·AHI07/03
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.871.531.731.732.001.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.721.721.752.001.701.50
vs Weaker (12)2.081.251.711.432.601.00
Clean sheet %20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (APEA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
84.4%
Under 1.5
15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
62.9%
Under 2.5
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.7%
Under 3.5
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.7%
No
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
7.7%
0-1
6.8%
1-3
6.4%
2-1
6.1%
2-2
6.1%
0-3
5.1%
APEA goals ↓
Digenis Morphou goals →
01234
04.9%6.8%7.7%5.1%2.5%
13.9%11%9.7%6.4%3.2%
23.1%6.1%6.1%4.0%2.0%
31.3%2.6%2.5%1.7%0.8%
40.4%0.8%0.8%0.5%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = APEA goals (down), columns = Digenis Morphou goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Nea Salamis
2.62
Karmiotissa
1.93
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.83
PAEEK
1.59
Halkanoras
1.55
Doxa
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.41
Digenis Morphou
1.34
Spartakos Kitiou
1.34
APEA
1.34
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.28
ASIL Lysi
1.07
Ethnikos Latsion
1.03
MEAP Nisou
1.00
AE Zakakiou
0.90
Ahironas / Onisilos
0.28
APEA and Digenis Morphou are level in average points per game (both 1.34).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Omonia 29is Maiou
2.07
Nea Salamis
1.93
Karmiotissa
1.86
Halkanoras
1.62
Digenis Morphou
1.55
Spartakos Kitiou
1.45
PAEEK
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.45
APEA
1.31
Doxa
1.17
ASIL Lysi
1.10
AE Zakakiou
1.10
MEAP Nisou
1.07
Ethnikos Latsion
0.97
Iraklis Yerolakkou
0.93
Ahironas / Onisilos
0.62
APEA is 0.24 goals worse than Digenis Morphou in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.55).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nea Salamis
0.52
Karmiotissa
0.90
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.03
PAEEK
1.07
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.14
Doxa
1.21
Spartakos Kitiou
1.24
Halkanoras
1.28
Digenis Morphou
1.31
APEA
1.31
Ayia Napa
1.48
Ethnikos Latsion
1.59
ASIL Lysi
1.72
MEAP Nisou
1.72
AE Zakakiou
1.79
Ahironas / Onisilos
2.34
APEA and Digenis Morphou are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.31).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

APEAAPEA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W01L11D01L01L01L01L00D10W11DH·ETH03/01A·NEA10/01H·AE 17/01A·DIG25/01H·AHI31/01H·HAL07/02A·SPA14/02H·IRA21/02A·ETH28/02A·AE 07/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.480.780.500.750.450.82
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.500.720.440.780.560.67
vs Weaker (5)0.401.000.670.670.001.50
Clean sheet %35% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Digenis Morphou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Digenis MorphouDigenis Morphou

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L01L30W10W10W04L11D10W01L20WH·PAE03/01A·SPA10/01H·AHI18/01H·APE25/01A·HAL31/01H·SPA07/02A·IRA14/02H·ETH21/02A·AE 28/02A·AHI07/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.700.530.930.670.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.330.830.251.120.400.60
vs Weaker (12)1.000.500.860.711.200.20
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (APEA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
APEA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

APEAAPEA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L12L10W30W00D01L01L00D00DH·ETH03/01A·NEA10/01H·AE 17/01A·DIG25/01H·AHI31/01H·HAL07/02A·SPA14/02H·IRA21/02A·ETH28/02A·AE 07/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.650.830.920.550.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.670.560.890.780.440.33
vs Weaker (5)0.801.000.671.331.000.50
Clean sheet %52% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Digenis Morphou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Digenis MorphouDigenis Morphou

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L21W01L12L11D01L10W31W20WH·PAE03/01A·SPA10/01H·AHI18/01H·APE25/01A·HAL31/01H·SPA07/02A·IRA14/02H·ETH21/02A·AE 28/02A·AHI07/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.270.831.200.801.330.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.390.891.500.881.300.90
vs Weaker (12)1.080.750.860.711.400.80
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (APEA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
APEA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.4%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NS (15)
€5m
KAR (12)
€3m
O2M (10)
€3m
DOX (1)
€0m
AN (1)
€0m
PAE (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NS (4)
€2m
KAR (3)
€0m
O2M (2)
€0m
AN (1)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
PAE (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NS (4)
€2m
KAR (3)
€1m
O2M (2)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
AN (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
PAE (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
O2M (6)
€2m
KAR (6)
€2m
NS (7)
€2m
DOX (1)
€0m
PAE (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
AN (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
APE wins
1
Draws
1
DM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

APEA vs Digenis Morphou · H/A from APE
DateH/AGameScore
25/01/26ADigenis Morphou Vs APE1-1
05/10/25HAPE Vs Digenis Morphou0-4

APEAAPEA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/03/26AAE Zakakiou Vs APE1-1
28/02/26AEthnikos Latsion Vs APE0-1
21/02/26HAPE Vs Iraklis Yerolakkou0-1
14/02/26ASpartakos Kitiou Vs APE2-0
07/02/26HAPE Vs Halkanoras0-1
31/01/26HAPE Vs Ahironas / Onisilos3-1
25/01/26ADigenis Morphou Vs APE1-1
17/01/26HAPE Vs AE Zakakiou2-3
10/01/26ANea Salamis Vs APE2-0
03/01/26HAPE Vs Ethnikos Latsion3-0

Digenis MorphouDigenis Morphou

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/03/26AAhironas / Onisilos Vs DM0-4
28/02/26AAE Zakakiou Vs DM2-3
21/02/26HDM Vs Ethnikos Latsion2-0
14/02/26AIraklis Yerolakkou Vs DM2-1
07/02/26HDM Vs Spartakos Kitiou1-5
31/01/26AHalkanoras Vs DM2-2
25/01/26HDM Vs APEA1-1
18/01/26HDM Vs Ahironas / Onisilos5-1
10/01/26ASpartakos Kitiou Vs DM2-0
03/01/26HDM Vs PAEEK0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

APEA
APEA
Cyprus: 2. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWD1.13
HomeWLWLL0.92
AwayLDLWD1.36
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%25%36%
AVG goals2.613.002.18
Over 1.5 %74%75%73%
Over 2.5 %52%75%27%
Over 3.5 %22%33%9%
Scored1.171.331.00
Conceded1.431.671.18
BTTS48%42%55%
Clean Sheet22%25%18%
Corners---
Cards---
Digenis Morphou
Digenis Morphou
Cyprus: 2. Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWW1.54
HomeLWDLW1.56
AwayLDLWW1.52
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%48%44%
AVG goals3.303.243.36
Over 1.5 %90%88%92%
Over 2.5 %66%60%72%
Over 3.5 %38%36%40%
Scored1.801.721.88
Conceded1.501.521.48
BTTS64%68%60%
Clean Sheet22%20%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Nea SalamisNea Salamis2976
83%
2.6
5615+41
2.4
69%
45%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2221.90.5
-
2KarmiotissaKarmiotissa2956
55%
1.9
5426+28
2.8
72%
55%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0121.90.9
-
3Omonia 29is MaiouOmonia 29is Maiou2953
48%
1.8
6033+27
3.2
79%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0022.11.1
-
4PAEEKPAEEK2946
41%
1.6
4231+11
2.5
72%
48%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
5HalkanorasHalkanoras2945
45%
1.6
4737+10
2.9
72%
62%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.3
-
6DoxaDoxa2942
41%
1.4
3435-1
2.4
79%
41%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.2
-
7Ayia NapaAyia Napa2941
38%
1.4
4243-1
2.9
83%
45%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
8Digenis MorphouDigenis Morphou2939
38%
1.3
4538+7
2.9
86%
55%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.3
-
9Spartakos KitiouSpartakos Kitiou2939
34%
1.3
4236+6
2.7
83%
45%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
10APEAAPEA2939
38%
1.3
3838+0
2.6
76%
52%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
11Iraklis YerolakkouIraklis Yerolakkou2937
28%
1.3
2730-3
2.0
62%
31%
10%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.0
-
12ASIL LysiASIL Lysi2931
28%
1.1
3250-18
2.8
69%
48%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.7
-
13Ethnikos LatsionEthnikos Latsion2930
28%
1.0
2846-18
2.6
79%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
14MEAP NisouMEAP Nisou2929
28%
1.0
3150-19
2.8
76%
48%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.7
-
15AE ZakakiouAE Zakakiou2926
21%
0.9
3252-20
2.9
79%
48%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
16Ahironas / OnisilosAhironas / Onisilos298
3%
0.3
1868-50
3.0
83%
55%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.3
-
Cyprus: 2. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 2. Division stats & trends →

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