APEA’s recent 3-game winning streak and a 2-1 victory over Ethnikos Latsion set the stage for a high-scoring encounter, with the model projecting 3.2 goals on average. The most likely total is three goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.7 % chance. The model favours a home win, with a 55 % probability, a 23 % draw chance and a 22 % away win chance. APEA, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.33 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while Doxa, away against a stronger opponent, averages 1.75 scored and 1.42 conceded. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (98.2 %), Away under 3.5 goals (96.5 %), Under 6.5 (95.3 %), Home +2 handicap (90.9 %), Under 5.5 (89.1 %), Away under 2.5 goals (87.5 %), Home over 0.5 goals (86.6 %) and Home under 3.5 goals (85.5 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
APEA win
54.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Doxa win
21.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
APEA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.31
1.31
1.53
1.40
1.07
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.35
1.09
1.58
1.25
1.09
0.91
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
2.17
1.33
2.00
1.00
2.33
Clean sheet %
28% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Doxa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Doxa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.17
0.75
1.00
1.79
1.36
vs Stronger (23)
1.30
1.13
0.82
0.82
1.75
1.42
vs Similar (7)
1.00
1.29
0.60
1.40
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (APEA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.3%
Under 1.5
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.7%
Under 2.5
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.5%
Under 3.5
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.0%
No
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.0%
1-0
7.0%
3-1
6.5%
2-2
5.9%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
5.4%
APEA goals ↓
Doxa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
3.8%
2.9%
1.2%
0.4%
1
7.0%
11%
5.9%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.0%
9.8%
5.9%
2.4%
0.7%
3
5.4%
6.5%
4.0%
1.6%
0.5%
4
2.7%
3.3%
2.0%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = APEA goals (down), columns = Doxa goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ethnikos Achna
2.66
Akritas
2.54
Enosis
2.44
PAEEK
1.59
Halkanoras
1.55
Doxa
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.41
Ermis
1.37
Polemidion
1.37
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.37
APEA
1.34
Spartakos Kitiou
1.34
Digenis Morphou
1.34
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.28
ASIL Lysi
1.07
MEAP Nisou
1.00
APEA is 0.10 points worse than Doxa in terms of average points per game (1.34 vs 1.45).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ethnikos Achna
2.62
Akritas
2.50
Enosis
2.40
Halkanoras
1.62
Digenis Morphou
1.55
PAEEK
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.45
Spartakos Kitiou
1.45
Ermis
1.35
Polemidion
1.35
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.35
APEA
1.31
Doxa
1.17
ASIL Lysi
1.10
MEAP Nisou
1.07
Iraklis Yerolakkou
0.93
APEA is 0.14 goals better than Doxa in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ethnikos Achna
0.70
Akritas
0.73
Enosis
0.76
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.03
PAEEK
1.07
Doxa
1.21
Spartakos Kitiou
1.24
Halkanoras
1.28
APEA
1.31
Digenis Morphou
1.31
Ermis
1.35
Polemidion
1.35
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.35
Ayia Napa
1.48
ASIL Lysi
1.72
MEAP Nisou
1.72
APEA is 0.10 goals worse than Doxa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
APEA or Draw
78.2%
Avg Implied -
55%
23%
22%
covers APEA + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
APEA or Doxa
76.6%
Avg Implied -
55%
23%
22%
covers APEA + Doxa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Doxa
45.2%
Avg Implied -
55%
23%
22%
covers Draw + Doxa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
APEA over/under 0.5
Over
86.7%
Under
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 1.5
Over
59.8%
Under
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 2.5
Over
32.7%
Under
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 3.5
Over
14.5%
Under
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doxa over/under 0.5
Over
70.4%
Under
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doxa over/under 1.5
Over
34.4%
Under
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doxa over/under 2.5
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doxa over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to APEA, so a minus line means APEA give that many goals of a start and Doxa receive them. At -1, APEA must win by two or more to land; a one-goal APEA win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (APEA)
APEA -2
16.3%
Draw -2
16.9%
Doxa +2
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (APEA)
APEA -1
33.2%
Draw -1
21.6%
Doxa +1
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (APEA)
APEA +1
78.2%
Draw +1
12.7%
Doxa -1
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (APEA)
APEA +2
90.9%
Draw +2
6.2%
Doxa -2
2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
APEA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.55
0.69
0.47
0.67
0.64
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.65
0.42
0.67
0.73
0.64
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
41% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Doxa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Doxa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.38
0.50
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (23)
0.43
0.70
0.27
0.45
0.58
0.92
vs Similar (7)
0.57
0.57
0.60
0.60
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (APEA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.1%
Under 0.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.6%
Under 1.5
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.1%
Under 2.5
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
APEA over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.0%
Under
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.7%
Under
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doxa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.0%
Under
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doxa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.6%
Under
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doxa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
APEA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.76
0.62
1.07
0.73
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.43
1.17
0.58
0.36
0.27
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
59% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Doxa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Doxa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
0.38
0.50
1.21
0.50
vs Stronger (23)
0.87
0.43
0.55
0.36
1.17
0.50
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.71
0.00
0.80
1.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (APEA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.3%
Under 0.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.0%
Under 1.5
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.5%
Under 2.5
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
APEA over/under 0.5 2H
Over
56.3%
Under
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.5%
Under
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doxa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.7%
Under
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doxa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.4%
Under
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doxa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Doxa · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nikola Trujić50%
Ernest Asante40%
Dimitar Velkovski20%
Marios Antoniadis0%
Mesca0%
Charis Kyriakou0%
Duško Trajčevski0%
Guessouma Fofana0%
Adil Nabi0%
Konstantinos Provydakis0%
Bryan Alceus0%
Simranjit Thandi0%
Omar Hani0%
Vangelis Kyriakou0%
Nicolai Skoglund0%
Aleksa Puric0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nikola Trujić75%
Mesca33%
Bryan Alceus25%
Marios Antoniadis20%
Duško Trajčevski20%
Ernest Asante20%
Simranjit Thandi20%
Dimitar Velkovski0%
Charis Kyriakou0%
Guessouma Fofana0%
Adil Nabi0%
Konstantinos Provydakis0%
Omar Hani0%
Vangelis Kyriakou0%
Nicolai Skoglund0%
Aleksa Puric0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Guessouma Fofana33%
Marios Antoniadis20%
Dimitar Velkovski20%
Mesca0%
Charis Kyriakou0%
Duško Trajčevski0%
Adil Nabi0%
Konstantinos Provydakis0%
Nikola Trujić0%
Ernest Asante0%
Bryan Alceus0%
Simranjit Thandi0%
Omar Hani0%
Vangelis Kyriakou0%
Nicolai Skoglund0%
Aleksa Puric0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nikola Trujić50%
Marios Antoniadis0%
Mesca0%
Dimitar Velkovski0%
Charis Kyriakou0%
Duško Trajčevski0%
Guessouma Fofana0%
Adil Nabi0%
Konstantinos Provydakis0%
Ernest Asante0%
Bryan Alceus0%
Simranjit Thandi0%
Omar Hani0%
Vangelis Kyriakou0%
Nicolai Skoglund0%
Aleksa Puric0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Cyprus: 2. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 2. Division stats & trends →