Apoel Nicosia are tipped to lift the cup, with a 44% chance of victory, a 28% draw and a 28% chance for AEL. The model projects an average of 2.7 goals, most likely a 2-goal total, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 13.2%. Home side Apoel, who have been struggling at home against weaker opponents, average 1.83 goals scored and 0.83 conceded, while AEL, playing away against stronger opposition, average 0.67 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.3%, Under 6.5 at 97.9% with a 4% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.5%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.5%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.3%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.8%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.1% with a 7% edge, and Over 19.5 fouls at 94.5%. The match shape suggests a tight contest with a slight edge to the home side.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Apoel Nicosia win
44.4%
Avg Implied 50.3% · @ 1.82
Edge
-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.88
Betano
1.85
SBO
1.84
1xBet
1.83
William Hil
1.83
Draw
27.7%
Avg Implied 27.3% · @ 3.35
Edge
+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.44
Marathonbet
3.44
Pinnacle
3.43
AEL win
28.0%
Avg Implied 22.4% · @ 4.08
Edge
+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
1xBet
4.24
Betano
4.20
Pinnacle
4.18
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Apoel Nicosia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.47
1.53
1.27
1.00
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.95
1.62
1.33
1.56
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (9)
2.00
1.11
1.83
0.83
2.33
1.67
Clean sheet %
20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEL
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.23
1.31
1.31
1.29
1.14
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.75
0.80
1.60
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (19)
1.37
1.16
1.33
1.33
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.33
2.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Apoel Nicosia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.6%
@ 1.29+5.1%
Under 1.5
23.4%
@ 3.23-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Under
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.25
Marathonbet
3.14
1xBet
3.14
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.0%
@ 1.95+2.6%
Under 2.5
49.0%
@ 1.83-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.99
SBO
1.97
Marathonbet
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.95
Under
Betfair
1.87
Bet365
1.85
SBO
1.83
Betano
1.83
Pinnacle
1.82
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.9%
@ 3.23+0.4%
Under 3.5
71.1%
@ 1.29-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.20
Betano
3.20
1xBet
3.14
Under
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Both teams to score
Yes
55.5%
@ 1.82+4.8%
No
44.5%
@ 1.87-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Betano
1.78
No
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.86
William Hil
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%@ 6.14+5.9%
2-1
9.2%@ 7.88+3.6%
1-0
9.0%@ 6.28+1.9%
0-0
7.8%@ 8.78+2.8%
2-0
7.8%@ 8.02+2.3%
1-2
7.1%@ 13.07+3.7%
0-1
6.6%@ 10.45+2.3%
2-2
5.4%@ 14.09+2.3%
Apoel Nicosia goals ↓
AEL goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
6.6%
4.6%
1.8%
0.5%
1
9.0%
13%
7.1%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.8%
9.2%
5.4%
2.1%
0.6%
3
4.0%
4.7%
2.8%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.5%
1.8%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Apoel Nicosia goals (down), columns = AEL goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Omonia Nicosia
2.42
AEK Larnaca
1.92
Apollon Limassol
1.86
Pafos
1.72
Apoel Nicosia
1.44
Aris
1.42
Anorthosis
1.36
AEL
1.33
Omonia Aradippou
1.27
Nea Salamis
1.21
Krasava Ypsonas
1.21
Olympiakos
1.21
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.10
Karmiotissa
1.00
Apoel Nicosia is 0.11 points better than AEL in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Omonia Nicosia
2.44
Pafos
1.83
AEK Larnaca
1.72
Aris
1.69
Apoel Nicosia
1.47
Apollon Limassol
1.44
AEL
1.24
Nea Salamis
1.14
Krasava Ypsonas
1.09
Anorthosis
1.06
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.03
Olympiakos
0.97
Omonia Aradippou
0.94
Karmiotissa
0.94
Apoel Nicosia is 0.23 goals better than AEL in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Omonia Nicosia
0.67
AEK Larnaca
0.92
Pafos
1.06
Apollon Limassol
1.14
Anorthosis
1.21
Aris
1.25
Apoel Nicosia
1.25
Omonia Aradippou
1.27
Krasava Ypsonas
1.33
Olympiakos
1.33
AEL
1.39
Nea Salamis
1.52
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.68
Karmiotissa
1.85
Apoel Nicosia is 0.14 goals better than AEL in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Pafos
55%
Olympiakos
54%
Apoel Nicosia
54%
Apollon Limassol
53%
Aris
52%
Omonia Nicosia
51%
Anorthosis
50%
AEK Larnaca
49%
AEL
49%
Krasava Ypsonas
47%
Omonia Aradippou
43%
Apoel Nicosia is 4.8 percentage points better than AEL in terms of average possession (54% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Apoel Nicosia
For 6.1 · Against 5.6 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 1.9 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 11.6 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AEL
For 3.4 · Against 2.7 · Total 6.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 17.6 · Total 30.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Apoel Nicosia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.8
10.3
2.7
3.4
2.1
27.4
28.5
25.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
10.8
11.1
10.5
2.9
3.4
2.4
27.4
28.8
25.5
vs Weaker (14)
10.0
10.2
9.5
2.2
3.3
1.1
27.4
27.8
26.5
% over line
67%
76%
50%
42%
52%
32%
85%
88%
80%
% under line
33%
24%
50%
58%
48%
68%
15%
12%
20%
This opponent (AEL) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEL
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.4
7.9
6.6
1.2
1.3
1.2
30.3
28.9
32.6
vs Stronger (14)
8.8
8.0
11.0
1.4
1.7
1.0
29.0
27.7
33.0
vs Similar (31)
6.2
7.0
5.5
1.3
1.3
1.4
31.6
30.8
32.5
vs Weaker (5)
11.0
11.0
-
0.4
0.5
0.0
25.0
25.0
-
% over line
38%
38%
40%
18%
15%
21%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
62%
62%
60%
82%
85%
79%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Apoel Nicosia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Omonia 29is Maiou
10.6
Nea Salamis
10.2
Omonia Nicosia
10.0
Krasava Ypsonas
9.9
Apoel Nicosia
9.8
Aris
9.7
Pafos
9.6
AEL
9.3
Karmiotissa
9.3
AEK Larnaca
9.2
Apollon Limassol
9.2
Anorthosis
8.7
Olympiakos
8.2
Omonia Aradippou
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aris
5.7
Anorthosis
5.3
Omonia 29is Maiou
5.3
Omonia Aradippou
5.2
Apoel Nicosia
5.1
AEK Larnaca
5.1
Pafos
4.9
Apollon Limassol
4.9
AEL
4.8
Nea Salamis
4.7
Karmiotissa
4.6
Omonia Nicosia
4.6
Olympiakos
4.4
Krasava Ypsonas
3.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Anorthosis
29.5
Omonia Aradippou
28.9
Olympiakos
27.8
AEL
27.6
Apoel Nicosia
27.2
Karmiotissa
27.0
Aris
26.2
Pafos
26.1
AEK Larnaca
26.0
Omonia 29is Maiou
25.1
Nea Salamis
25.0
Omonia Nicosia
24.9
Krasava Ypsonas
24.3
Apollon Limassol
24.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
42.1%
Under 9.5
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
72.2%
Under 3.5
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
88.1%
Under 21.5
11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Apoel Nicosia or Draw
72.0%
Avg Implied 77.7% · @ 1.19
Edge
-5.7%
44%
28%
28%
covers Apoel Nicosia + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Apoel Nicosia or AEL
72.3%
Avg Implied 73.5% · @ 1.26
Edge
-1.2%
44%
28%
28%
covers Apoel Nicosia + AEL
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Draw or AEL
55.6%
Avg Implied 48.8% · @ 1.90
Edge
+6.9%
44%
28%
28%
covers Draw + AEL
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.98
SBO
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.91
Betfair
1.91
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Apoel Nicosia over/under 0.5
Over
78.5%
@ 1.19+0.1%
Under
21.5%
@ 4.32-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Under
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Betano
4.15
Apoel Nicosia over/under 1.5
Over
45.4%
@ 1.92-3.1%
Under
54.6%
@ 1.81+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
Betfair
1.91
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
Betfair
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Apoel Nicosia over/under 2.5
Over
20.0%
@ 3.85-4.0%
Under
80.0%
@ 1.22+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.00
1xBet
4.00
Betano
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Under
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.19
Apoel Nicosia over/under 3.5
Over
7.0%
@ 8.30-4.2%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.05+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.30
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.02
AEL over/under 0.5
Over
69.2%
@ 1.52+7.8%
Under
30.8%
@ 2.41-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Under
Betano
2.50
Pinnacle
2.46
Betfair
2.38
Bet365
2.38
1xBet
2.35
AEL over/under 1.5
Over
32.9%
@ 3.41+5.7%
Under
67.1%
@ 1.28-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.54
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.30
1xBet
3.20
Under
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
AEL over/under 2.5
Over
11.6%
@ 8.78+1.0%
Under
88.4%
@ 1.04-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
9.50
1xBet
9.50
Marathonbet
9.10
Bet365
8.00
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
AEL over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
@ 13.75-3.7%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.01+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Apoel Nicosia, so a minus line means Apoel Nicosia give that many goals of a start and AEL receive them. At -1, Apoel Nicosia must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Apoel Nicosia win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Apoel Nicosia)
Apoel Nicosia -2
9.2%
@ 6.30-4.8%
Draw -2
13.7%
@ 5.08-3.7%
AEL +2
77.1%
@ 1.29+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.10
Draw
Marathonbet
5.15
Bet365
5.00
Away
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
Handicap -1 (Apoel Nicosia)
Apoel Nicosia -1
22.9%
@ 3.09-5.4%
Draw -1
21.4%
@ 3.49-3.7%
AEL +1
55.6%
@ 1.89+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Marathonbet
3.08
Draw
Bet365
3.60
Marathonbet
3.48
Betfair
3.40
Away
Marathonbet
1.92
Betfair
1.91
Bet365
1.83
Handicap +1 (Apoel Nicosia)
Apoel Nicosia +1
72.0%
@ 1.20-1.8%
Draw +1
16.1%
@ 5.58+0.2%
AEL -1
11.8%
@ 8.65+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.18
Draw
Marathonbet
5.65
Bet365
5.50
Away
Marathonbet
8.80
Bet365
8.50
Handicap +2 (Apoel Nicosia)
Apoel Nicosia +2
88.2%
@ 1.05-0.6%
Draw +2
8.1%
@ 13.00+0.9%
AEL -2
3.7%
@ 23.00-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Away
Bet365
23.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Apoel Nicosia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.67
0.47
0.40
0.33
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.38
0.81
0.56
0.56
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (9)
0.44
0.33
0.33
0.17
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEL
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.31
0.69
0.64
0.43
vs Stronger (8)
0.00
0.88
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.53
0.44
0.67
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Apoel Nicosia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.4%
@ 1.39+2.9%
Under 0.5
30.6%
@ 2.78-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Under
William Hil
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.83
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.70
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.4%
@ 2.81-0.7%
Under 1.5
67.6%
@ 1.39+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.83
Marathonbet
2.77
1xBet
2.77
Under
Bet365
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.4%
@ 6.72-2.5%
Under 2.5
88.6%
@ 1.08+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
William Hil
7.00
Betano
6.40
1xBet
6.20
Under
Betano
1.09
William Hil
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Apoel Nicosia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.3%
@ 1.80-3.3%
Under
51.7%
@ 1.92+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.81
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.75
Under
Pinnacle
1.96
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.88
Betano
1.88
Apoel Nicosia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.3%
@ 5.17-4.7%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.13+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.10
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Apoel Nicosia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.4%
@ 10.75-6.3%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.03+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
AEL over/under 0.5 HT
Over
38.4%
@ 2.62+3.1%
Under
61.6%
@ 1.43-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.70
1xBet
2.60
Betano
2.60
Marathonbet
2.58
Under
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.40
AEL over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.7%
@ 9.35+0.8%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.03-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.00
1xBet
9.80
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
AEL over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Apoel Nicosia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.80
1.07
0.87
0.67
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.81
0.78
1.00
0.42
0.67
vs Weaker (9)
1.56
0.78
1.50
0.67
1.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEL
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.62
0.64
0.71
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
0.88
0.80
0.60
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.63
0.89
0.67
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Apoel Nicosia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.3%
@ 1.24+0.3%
Under 0.5
24.7%
@ 3.73-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Under
Betano
3.85
1xBet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
William Hil
3.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
42.6%
@ 2.13-1.1%
Under 1.5
57.4%
@ 1.66+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.16
William Hil
2.15
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.10
Under
Betano
1.72
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
William Hil
1.62
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.6%
@ 4.46-4.3%
Under 2.5
83.4%
@ 1.18+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.80
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
4.30
Betano
4.25
Under
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.17
William Hil
1.15
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Apoel Nicosia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.1%
@ 1.57-6.2%
Under
46.9%
@ 2.29+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.32
1xBet
2.26
Apoel Nicosia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.2%
@ 3.64-6.2%
Under
80.8%
@ 1.24+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.72
1xBet
3.70
Betano
3.50
Under
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Apoel Nicosia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.6%
@ 8.00-6.0%
Under
94.4%
@ 1.04+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.00
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.03
AEL over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.2%
@ 2.13+10.7%
Under
45.8%
@ 1.64-10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.16
Betano
2.07
Under
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.60
AEL over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.2%
@ 6.90-0.2%
Under
86.8%
@ 1.07+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.40
1xBet
7.20
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
AEL over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.5%
@ 12.00-5.3%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.02+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+4.5%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.3%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.3%
Away under 3.5 goals
96.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.7%
Over 19.5 fouls
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.4%
1.04
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
+6.0%
Under 5.5
94.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
+3.5%
Home under 3.5 goals
93.0%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.02
-
+4.2%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.3%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-0.8%
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.6%
1.08
Betano
1.09
William Hil
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+2.5%
Away under 2.5 goals
88.4%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-1.0%
Home +2 handicap
88.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-0.6%
Over 21.5 fouls
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.8%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
-
-
+0.2%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.7%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
-
-
+4.7%
Under 4.5
86.1%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
-
+1.8%
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.4%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.17
William Hil
1.15
-
+4.3%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.8%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
-
-
+6.2%
Home under 2.5 goals
80.0%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.19
+4.0%
Under 11.5 corners
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
78.5%
1.19
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
-
+0.1%
Over 23.5 fouls
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
77.1%
1.29
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
-
-
-
+8.5%
Over 1.5
76.6%
1.29
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
-
+5.1%
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.3%
1.24
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.22
-
+0.3%
Home or Away
72.3%
1.26
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
-1.2%
Over 3.5 cards
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
72.0%
1.19
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
-5.7%
Home +1 handicap
72.0%
1.20
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.18
-
-
-
-1.8%
Under 3.5
71.1%
1.29
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
-
-0.4%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Apoel Nicosia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nikolas Koutsakos30%
Stefan Dražić23%
Daniel Mancini14%
Mathías Tomás14%
Miloš Degenek11%
David Abagna9%
Peter Olayinka8%
Constantinos Poursaitides8%
Marquinhos7%
Konstantinos Laifis6%
Diego Rosa6%
Franz Denniz Brorsson0%
Max Meyer0%
Dimitris Diamantakos0%
Kostas Stafylidis0%
Vid Belec0%
Dálcio0%
Nanú0%
Marius Corbu0%
Gabriel Pereira0%
Evagoras Antoniou0%
Vitor Meer0%
Gabriel Maioli0%
Geovane Meurer0%
Panagiotis Kattirtzis0%
Charles Yaw Appiah0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vitor Meer35%
Diego Rosa28%
Franz Denniz Brorsson25%
Konstantinos Laifis25%
Daniel Mancini21%
Gabriel Pereira20%
Nanú19%
Mathías Tomás19%
Peter Olayinka17%
Dálcio15%
Marquinhos14%
Gabriel Maioli12%
Miloš Degenek11%
Max Meyer10%
Dimitris Diamantakos10%
Kostas Stafylidis10%
David Abagna9%
Constantinos Poursaitides8%
Vid Belec6%
Nikolas Koutsakos5%
Stefan Dražić5%
Marius Corbu0%
Evagoras Antoniou0%
Geovane Meurer0%
Panagiotis Kattirtzis0%
Charles Yaw Appiah0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kostas Stafylidis20%
Mathías Tomás19%
Daniel Mancini14%
Marius Corbu14%
Nanú10%
Marquinhos7%
Stefan Dražić5%
Peter Olayinka0%
Franz Denniz Brorsson0%
Konstantinos Laifis0%
Miloš Degenek0%
Max Meyer0%
Dimitris Diamantakos0%
Vid Belec0%
Dálcio0%
Diego Rosa0%
Nikolas Koutsakos0%
Gabriel Pereira0%
Evagoras Antoniou0%
Vitor Meer0%
David Abagna0%
Gabriel Maioli0%
Geovane Meurer0%
Constantinos Poursaitides0%
Panagiotis Kattirtzis0%
Charles Yaw Appiah0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathías Tomás38%
Stefan Dražić18%
Gabriel Maioli12%
Nikolas Koutsakos10%
Peter Olayinka8%
Marquinhos7%
Franz Denniz Brorsson0%
Konstantinos Laifis0%
Miloš Degenek0%
Max Meyer0%
Daniel Mancini0%
Dimitris Diamantakos0%
Kostas Stafylidis0%
Vid Belec0%
Dálcio0%
Nanú0%
Marius Corbu0%
Diego Rosa0%
Gabriel Pereira0%
Evagoras Antoniou0%
Vitor Meer0%
David Abagna0%
Geovane Meurer0%
Constantinos Poursaitides0%
Panagiotis Kattirtzis0%
Charles Yaw Appiah0%
AEL · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Zakaria Sawo44%
Luther Singh40%
Morgan Ferrier33%
Christoforos Frantzis33%
Andreas Makris27%
Sérgio Conceição27%
Andreas Panayiotou Filiotis20%
Fernando Forestieri17%
Léo Natel12%
Nemanja Glavčić9%
Guillermo Ochoa0%
Július Szőke0%
Bassel Jradi0%
Davor Zdravkovski0%
Vasilios Papafotis0%
Luka Bogdan0%
Ivan Milosavljević0%
Dušan Stevanović0%
Danil Paroutis0%
Emmanuel Imanishimwe0%
Stephane Keller0%
Panagiotis Kyriakou0%
Thapelo Maseko0%
François Régis Mughe0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Morgan Ferrier67%
Július Szőke62%
Dušan Stevanović33%
Emmanuel Imanishimwe29%
Stephane Keller25%
Luther Singh20%
Andreas Panayiotou Filiotis20%
Sérgio Conceição18%
Thapelo Maseko14%
Guillermo Ochoa12%
Léo Natel12%
Zakaria Sawo11%
Ivan Milosavljević9%
Nemanja Glavčić9%
Bassel Jradi0%
Davor Zdravkovski0%
Andreas Makris0%
Vasilios Papafotis0%
Fernando Forestieri0%
Luka Bogdan0%
Danil Paroutis0%
Christoforos Frantzis0%
Panagiotis Kyriakou0%
François Régis Mughe0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sérgio Conceição27%
Léo Natel25%
Stephane Keller25%
Luther Singh20%
François Régis Mughe17%
Thapelo Maseko14%
Ivan Milosavljević9%
Nemanja Glavčić9%
Guillermo Ochoa0%
Július Szőke0%
Bassel Jradi0%
Davor Zdravkovski0%
Andreas Makris0%
Vasilios Papafotis0%
Fernando Forestieri0%
Morgan Ferrier0%
Luka Bogdan0%
Dušan Stevanović0%
Danil Paroutis0%
Christoforos Frantzis0%
Emmanuel Imanishimwe0%
Zakaria Sawo0%
Andreas Panayiotou Filiotis0%
Panagiotis Kyriakou0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Christoforos Frantzis33%
Luther Singh20%
François Régis Mughe17%
Léo Natel12%
Luka Bogdan12%
Zakaria Sawo11%
Andreas Makris9%
Guillermo Ochoa0%
Július Szőke0%
Bassel Jradi0%
Davor Zdravkovski0%
Vasilios Papafotis0%
Fernando Forestieri0%
Morgan Ferrier0%
Ivan Milosavljević0%
Dušan Stevanović0%
Nemanja Glavčić0%
Sérgio Conceição0%
Danil Paroutis0%
Emmanuel Imanishimwe0%
Stephane Keller0%
Andreas Panayiotou Filiotis0%
Panagiotis Kyriakou0%
Thapelo Maseko0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
AL (30)
€16m
AL (24)
€15m
AN (30)
€15m
ON (23)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
AEL (21)
€9m
ANO (25)
€7m
NS (15)
€5m
OA (18)
€5m
OLY (14)
€4m
KY (20)
€4m
KAR (12)
€3m
O2M (10)
€3m
Apoel Nicosia's squad is €6m more valuable than AEL's (€15m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
AN (12)
€8m
ON (9)
€7m
AL (10)
€7m
AL (9)
€7m
AEL (9)
€4m
ARI (8)
€3m
ANO (9)
€2m
KY (8)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
OA (5)
€1m
OLY (4)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
O2M (2)
€0m
Apoel Nicosia's attack is €4m more valuable than AEL's (€8m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (4)
€3m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (4)
€2m
AL (6)
€2m
AEL (5)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
ANO (6)
€1m
OA (4)
€1m
KAR (3)
€1m
KY (4)
€0m
O2M (2)
€0m
OLY (2)
€0m
Apoel Nicosia and AEL have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
AL (11)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
ANO (10)
€3m
AEL (7)
€3m
OA (9)
€2m
OLY (8)
€2m
O2M (6)
€2m
KAR (6)
€2m
NS (7)
€2m
KY (8)
€1m
Apoel Nicosia's defence is €2m more valuable than AEL's (€5m vs €3m).
Cyprus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Pafos
Omonia 29is Maiou
AEK Larnaca
Olympiakos
Nea Salamis
Apollon Limassol
Aris
Omonia Aradippou
Omonia Nicosia
Anorthosis
Karmiotissa
Krasava Ypsonas