This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aris
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
0.63
1.94
0.44
1.71
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.07
0.73
1.25
0.38
0.86
1.14
vs Weaker (15)
2.60
0.53
2.62
0.50
2.57
0.57
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Apoel Nicosia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.6%
Under 1.5
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.7%
Under 2.5
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.3%
Under 3.5
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.8%
No
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0
9.9%
0-0
9.4%
2-1 ✓
8.7%
0-1
8.0%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
7.2%
0-2
5.2%
Apoel Nicosia goals ↓
Aris goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
8.0%
5.2%
2.0%
0.6%
1
9.9%
14%
7.2%
2.7%
0.8%
2
7.7%
8.7%
4.9%
1.9%
0.5%
3
3.5%
4.0%
2.3%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.2%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Apoel Nicosia goals (down), columns = Aris goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Pafos
2.28
Aris
2.08
AEK Larnaca
1.89
Omonia Nicosia
1.89
Anorthosis
1.58
Apoel Nicosia
1.47
Apollon Limassol
1.28
AEL
1.18
Ethnikos Achna
1.18
Enosis
1.06
Omonia Aradippou
1.06
Karmiotissa
1.03
Nea Salamis
0.79
Omonia 29is Maiou
0.42
Apoel Nicosia is 0.61 points worse than Aris in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 2.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Omonia Nicosia
1.92
Pafos
1.86
Aris
1.83
Apoel Nicosia
1.64
AEK Larnaca
1.61
Anorthosis
1.52
Ethnikos Achna
1.33
AEL
1.15
Apollon Limassol
1.03
Omonia Aradippou
0.97
Enosis
0.94
Nea Salamis
0.94
Karmiotissa
0.91
Omonia 29is Maiou
0.70
Apoel Nicosia is 0.19 goals worse than Aris in terms of goals scored per game (1.64 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pafos
0.58
AEK Larnaca
0.83
Aris
0.86
Apoel Nicosia
1.00
Apollon Limassol
1.08
Omonia Nicosia
1.11
Anorthosis
1.27
Enosis
1.45
AEL
1.61
Ethnikos Achna
1.61
Karmiotissa
1.73
Omonia Aradippou
1.76
Nea Salamis
1.88
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.97
Apoel Nicosia is 0.14 goals worse than Aris in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.86).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Apoel Nicosia
58%
Ethnikos Achna
58%
Pafos
56%
AEK Larnaca
53%
Apollon Limassol
53%
Anorthosis
50%
Omonia Nicosia
49%
Omonia Aradippou
46%
Nea Salamis
46%
Aris
46%
Omonia 29is Maiou
45%
AEL
44%
Enosis
40%
Karmiotissa
39%
Apoel Nicosia is 12.8 percentage points better than Aris in terms of average possession (58% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Apoel Nicosia
For 5.2 · Against 3.8 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 15.0 · Total 28.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aris
For 2.8 · Against 6.0 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.6 · Against 1.8 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 11.2 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Apoel Nicosia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
8.8
8.7
2.7
3.0
2.4
27.6
27.7
27.6
vs Stronger (1)
6.0
6.0
-
7.0
7.0
-
27.0
27.0
-
vs Similar (35)
8.5
8.4
8.5
3.2
3.3
3.0
28.9
30.2
27.5
vs Weaker (14)
10.0
10.0
10.0
1.4
1.7
1.0
24.0
23.2
28.0
% over line
38%
33%
44%
42%
46%
38%
88%
87%
89%
% under line
62%
67%
56%
58%
54%
62%
12%
13%
11%
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aris
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.4
9.4
2.1
1.9
2.2
25.6
23.7
27.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
9.2
9.8
8.7
2.8
2.2
3.3
25.9
21.7
30.2
vs Weaker (24)
8.3
6.2
11.0
1.3
1.5
1.0
25.0
26.8
22.7
% over line
37%
30%
44%
32%
31%
33%
79%
70%
89%
% under line
63%
70%
56%
68%
69%
67%
21%
30%
11%
This opponent (Apoel Nicosia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Omonia Nicosia
10.8
Omonia 29is Maiou
10.6
Nea Salamis
10.2
AEL
10.0
Apollon Limassol
9.5
Omonia Aradippou
9.5
Aris
9.5
Karmiotissa
9.4
AEK Larnaca
9.4
Apoel Nicosia
9.3
Anorthosis
9.0
Enosis
8.8
Pafos
8.5
Ethnikos Achna
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Omonia Aradippou
6.2
Aris
5.4
Omonia 29is Maiou
5.3
Anorthosis
5.3
Pafos
5.1
Apoel Nicosia
5.1
Apollon Limassol
5.1
Enosis
5.1
Ethnikos Achna
5.0
AEK Larnaca
4.9
Nea Salamis
4.7
Karmiotissa
4.7
Omonia Nicosia
4.6
AEL
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Anorthosis
29.0
Apoel Nicosia
28.8
Enosis
28.6
Karmiotissa
27.0
Ethnikos Achna
26.8
AEL
26.8
Omonia Aradippou
26.0
Pafos
26.0
Aris
25.7
AEK Larnaca
25.6
Apollon Limassol
25.2
Omonia 29is Maiou
25.1
Nea Salamis
25.0
Omonia Nicosia
24.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
47.4%
Under 9.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
74.3%
Under 3.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
90.6%
Under 21.5
9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Apoel Nicosia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.47
0.69
0.25
0.50
0.71
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.29
0.62
0.10
0.40
0.45
0.82
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.12
1.60
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aris
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.40
0.81
0.31
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.47
0.50
0.38
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (15)
1.20
0.33
1.12
0.25
1.29
0.43
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Apoel Nicosia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Apoel Nicosia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apoel Nicosia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apoel Nicosia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Apoel Nicosia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.57
1.19
0.50
0.79
0.64
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.62
0.70
0.70
0.73
0.55
vs Weaker (8)
1.88
0.38
2.40
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aris
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.23
1.12
0.12
0.71
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.27
0.75
0.00
0.14
0.57
vs Weaker (15)
1.40
0.20
1.50
0.25
1.29
0.14
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Apoel Nicosia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Apoel Nicosia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apoel Nicosia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apoel Nicosia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Apoel Nicosia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Anastasios Donis36%
Pizzi30%
Stefan Dražić29%
David Abagna29%
Youssef El Arabi28%
Konstantinos Laifis27%
Georgi Kostadinov17%
Gabriel Maioli14%
Konstantinos Galanopoulos11%
Marius Corbu8%
Marquinhos8%
Xavi Quintilla6%
Mateo Sušić5%
Issam Chebake5%
Pieros Sotiriou0%
Radosav Petrović0%
Dieumerci Ndongala0%
Max Meyer0%
Lasha Dvali0%
Vid Belec0%
Iván Alejo0%
Sergio Tejera0%
Paris Polikarpou0%
Kingsley Sarfo0%
Giannis Satsias0%
Lautaro Cano0%
Evagoras Antoniou0%
Algassime Bah0%
Panagiotis Kattirtzis0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lautaro Cano33%
Evagoras Antoniou25%
Pieros Sotiriou20%
Dieumerci Ndongala20%
Issam Chebake20%
Kingsley Sarfo20%
Radosav Petrović18%
Konstantinos Laifis18%
Sergio Tejera18%
David Abagna18%
Georgi Kostadinov17%
Lasha Dvali15%
Anastasios Donis14%
Giannis Satsias14%
Xavi Quintilla12%
Stefan Dražić12%
Konstantinos Galanopoulos11%
Youssef El Arabi11%
Mateo Sušić11%
Algassime Bah9%
Vid Belec9%
Max Meyer8%
Marius Corbu8%
Marquinhos8%
Pizzi0%
Iván Alejo0%
Paris Polikarpou0%
Gabriel Maioli0%
Panagiotis Kattirtzis0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Anastasios Donis29%
Sergio Tejera23%
Youssef El Arabi17%
Gabriel Maioli14%
Xavi Quintilla12%
Stefan Dražić12%
Konstantinos Galanopoulos11%
Pizzi10%
Radosav Petrović9%
Lasha Dvali8%
David Abagna6%
Konstantinos Laifis5%
Pieros Sotiriou0%
Dieumerci Ndongala0%
Marquinhos0%
Max Meyer0%
Vid Belec0%
Iván Alejo0%
Issam Chebake0%
Georgi Kostadinov0%
Paris Polikarpou0%
Kingsley Sarfo0%
Mateo Sušić0%
Marius Corbu0%
Giannis Satsias0%
Lautaro Cano0%
Evagoras Antoniou0%
Algassime Bah0%
Panagiotis Kattirtzis0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Anastasios Donis29%
Youssef El Arabi22%
David Abagna18%
Marquinhos15%
Stefan Dražić12%
Konstantinos Galanopoulos11%
Pizzi10%
Marius Corbu8%
Konstantinos Laifis5%
Pieros Sotiriou0%
Radosav Petrović0%
Xavi Quintilla0%
Dieumerci Ndongala0%
Max Meyer0%
Lasha Dvali0%
Vid Belec0%
Iván Alejo0%
Sergio Tejera0%
Issam Chebake0%
Georgi Kostadinov0%
Paris Polikarpou0%
Kingsley Sarfo0%
Mateo Sušić0%
Giannis Satsias0%
Lautaro Cano0%
Evagoras Antoniou0%
Algassime Bah0%
Gabriel Maioli0%
Panagiotis Kattirtzis0%
Aris
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Veljko Nikolić40%
Yannick Gomis33%
Mihlali Mayambela17%
Karol Struski17%
Vaná0%
Aleksandr Kokorin0%
Connor Goldson0%
Giorgi Kvilitaia0%
Anderson Correia0%
Steeve Yago0%
Edi Semedo0%
Slobodan Urošević0%
Leo Bengtsson0%
Eric Boakye0%
Zakaria Sawo0%
Miłosz Matysik0%
Jaden Montnor0%
Alex Opoku Sarfo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Alex Opoku Sarfo67%
Giorgi Kvilitaia50%
Leo Bengtsson50%
Jaden Montnor50%
Aleksandr Kokorin33%
Connor Goldson33%
Anderson Correia25%
Steeve Yago20%
Veljko Nikolić20%
Vaná17%
Yannick Gomis17%
Eric Boakye17%
Karol Struski17%
Edi Semedo0%
Mihlali Mayambela0%
Slobodan Urošević0%
Zakaria Sawo0%
Miłosz Matysik0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Aleksandr Kokorin33%
Anderson Correia25%
Edi Semedo25%
Vaná0%
Connor Goldson0%
Giorgi Kvilitaia0%
Yannick Gomis0%
Steeve Yago0%
Mihlali Mayambela0%
Slobodan Urošević0%
Leo Bengtsson0%
Veljko Nikolić0%
Eric Boakye0%
Karol Struski0%
Zakaria Sawo0%
Miłosz Matysik0%
Jaden Montnor0%
Alex Opoku Sarfo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Aleksandr Kokorin33%
Giorgi Kvilitaia25%
Leo Bengtsson17%
Vaná0%
Connor Goldson0%
Anderson Correia0%
Yannick Gomis0%
Steeve Yago0%
Edi Semedo0%
Mihlali Mayambela0%
Slobodan Urošević0%
Veljko Nikolić0%
Eric Boakye0%
Karol Struski0%
Zakaria Sawo0%
Miłosz Matysik0%
Jaden Montnor0%
Alex Opoku Sarfo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
AL (30)
€16m
AL (24)
€15m
AN (30)
€15m
ON (23)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
AEL (21)
€9m
ANO (25)
€7m
NS (15)
€5m
OA (18)
€5m
KAR (12)
€3m
O2M (10)
€3m
ENO (9)
€1m
EA (2)
€0m
Apoel Nicosia's squad is €4m more valuable than Aris's (€15m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
AN (12)
€8m
ON (9)
€7m
AL (10)
€7m
AL (9)
€7m
AEL (9)
€4m
ARI (8)
€3m
ANO (9)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
OA (5)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
ENO (3)
€0m
O2M (2)
€0m
EA (1)
€0m
Apoel Nicosia's attack is €5m more valuable than Aris's (€8m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (4)
€3m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (4)
€2m
AL (6)
€2m
AEL (5)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
ANO (6)
€1m
OA (4)
€1m
KAR (3)
€1m
O2M (2)
€0m
ENO (2)
€0m
EA (0)
€0m
Apoel Nicosia and Aris have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
AL (11)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
ANO (10)
€3m
AEL (7)
€3m
OA (9)
€2m
O2M (6)
€2m
KAR (6)
€2m
NS (7)
€2m
ENO (4)
€1m
EA (1)
€0m
Apoel Nicosia and Aris have a similar defence value (both €5m).
Cyprus: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →