Pythia gives Apoel Nicosia a 27% win probability against Omonia Nicosia in the Cyprus: 1. Division on 2026-05-16, with 25% for the draw and 48% for Omonia Nicosia. The model estimates around 3.1 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (23%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (11.6%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (93%), Over 2.5 cards (86%), Over 21.5 fouls (85%), Over 1.5 (83%).
Results analysis
Apoel Nicosia finished 0-3 against Omonia Nicosia (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 27% home win, 25% draw and 48% away win. Picks that landed: Over 19.5 fouls (93%), Over 2.5 cards (86%), Over 21.5 fouls (85%), Over 1.5 (83%), Under 11.5 corners (77%), Over 23.5 fouls (73%). Missed: Over 3.5 cards (70%).
ðŊ 1. Model Analysis
Apoel Nicosia winâ Miss
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Omonia Nicosia winâ Hit
47.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
â― 2. Goal Analysis
Apoel Nicosia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.27
1.69
1.12
1.29
1.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.18
1.35
1.75
1.12
0.67
1.56
vs Weaker (13)
1.92
1.15
1.62
1.12
2.40
1.20
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Omonia Nicosia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Omonia Nicosia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
0.77
2.07
0.47
2.13
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.68
1.16
1.38
0.75
1.91
1.45
vs Weaker (10)
2.90
0.10
3.00
0.17
2.75
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Apoel Nicosia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.6%
Under 1.5
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.8%
Under 2.5
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.5%
Under 3.5
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.8%
No
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
1-2
9.5%
0-2
7.2%
0-1
7.0%
2-1
6.9%
2-2
6.2%
1-3
5.6%
0-0
5.6%
Apoel Nicosia goals ↓
Omonia Nicosia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
7.0%
7.2%
4.3%
1.9%
1
4.8%
12%
9.5%
5.6%
2.5%
2
3.9%
6.9%
6.2%
3.7%
1.7%
3
1.7%
3.0%
2.7%
1.6%
0.7%
4
0.6%
1.0%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Apoel Nicosia goals (down), columns = Omonia Nicosia goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Omonia Nicosia
2.42
AEK Larnaca
1.92
Apollon Limassol
1.86
Pafos
1.72
Apoel Nicosia
1.44
Aris
1.42
Anorthosis
1.36
AEL
1.33
Omonia Aradippou
1.27
Olympiakos
1.21
Krasava Ypsonas
1.21
Akritas
1.06
Ethnikos Achna
1.00
Enosis
0.15
Apoel Nicosia is 0.97 points worse than Omonia Nicosia in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 2.42).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Omonia Nicosia
2.44
Pafos
1.83
AEK Larnaca
1.72
Aris
1.69
Apoel Nicosia
1.47
Apollon Limassol
1.44
AEL
1.24
Krasava Ypsonas
1.09
Anorthosis
1.06
Ethnikos Achna
1.03
Olympiakos
0.97
Akritas
0.94
Omonia Aradippou
0.94
Enosis
0.33
Apoel Nicosia is 0.97 goals worse than Omonia Nicosia in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 2.44).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Omonia Nicosia
0.67
AEK Larnaca
0.92
Pafos
1.06
Apollon Limassol
1.14
Anorthosis
1.21
Apoel Nicosia
1.25
Aris
1.25
Omonia Aradippou
1.27
Olympiakos
1.33
Krasava Ypsonas
1.33
AEL
1.39
Ethnikos Achna
1.61
Akritas
1.76
Enosis
2.42
Apoel Nicosia is 0.58 goals worse than Omonia Nicosia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 0.67).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Pafos
55%
Olympiakos
54%
Apoel Nicosia
54%
Apollon Limassol
53%
Aris
52%
Omonia Nicosia
51%
Anorthosis
50%
AEK Larnaca
49%
AEL
49%
Ethnikos Achna
48%
Krasava Ypsonas
47%
Akritas
44%
Omonia Aradippou
43%
Enosis
41%
Apoel Nicosia is 3.0 percentage points better than Omonia Nicosia in terms of average possession (54% vs 51%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Apoel Nicosia
For 5.7 · Against 6.0 · Total 11.7
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.9
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 11.7 · Total 23.4
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Omonia Nicosia
For 5.0 · Against 3.3 · Total 8.3
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.5
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 14.4 · Total 25.9
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Apoel Nicosia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.9
9.7
3.0
3.6
2.4
28.0
28.9
26.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (33)
10.7
11.1
10.2
3.4
3.7
3.0
28.2
30.1
25.6
vs Weaker (17)
9.8
10.5
8.3
2.2
3.2
1.2
27.4
26.8
28.7
% over line
64%
76%
45%
46%
56%
36%
86%
88%
82%
% under line
36%
24%
55%
54%
44%
64%
14%
12%
18%
This opponent (Omonia Nicosia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Omonia Nicosia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
9.4
7.6
2.1
2.2
1.9
25.5
24.1
26.9
vs Stronger (1)
12.0
12.0
-
7.0
7.0
-
19.0
19.0
-
vs Similar (29)
8.5
9.0
8.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
26.1
25.1
26.9
vs Weaker (20)
7.3
9.5
3.0
0.5
0.7
0.2
24.3
23.0
27.0
% over line
40%
50%
30%
34%
32%
36%
70%
50%
90%
% under line
60%
50%
70%
66%
68%
64%
30%
50%
10%
This opponent (Apoel Nicosia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Omonia Nicosia
10.2
Apoel Nicosia
9.9
Aris
9.7
Krasava Ypsonas
9.6
Pafos
9.6
AEL
9.3
Akritas
9.3
AEK Larnaca
9.2
Apollon Limassol
9.1
Enosis
9.0
Anorthosis
8.7
Ethnikos Achna
8.4
Olympiakos
8.2
Omonia Aradippou
7.8
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aris
5.7
Anorthosis
5.3
Omonia Aradippou
5.2
Apoel Nicosia
5.1
AEK Larnaca
5.1
Ethnikos Achna
5.0
Enosis
4.9
Apollon Limassol
4.8
AEL
4.8
Pafos
4.7
Omonia Nicosia
4.5
Olympiakos
4.4
Akritas
4.4
Krasava Ypsonas
4.0
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Anorthosis
29.5
Omonia Aradippou
28.9
Enosis
28.2
Olympiakos
27.8
AEL
27.6
Apoel Nicosia
27.3
Ethnikos Achna
27.2
Aris
26.2
AEK Larnaca
26.0
Pafos
25.6
Krasava Ypsonas
24.9
Omonia Nicosia
24.5
Apollon Limassol
24.5
Akritas
23.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
46.0%
Under 9.5
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
70.5%
Under 3.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
84.8%
Under 21.5
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Apoel Nicosia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.53
0.44
0.38
0.43
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.59
0.62
0.38
0.33
0.78
vs Weaker (13)
0.38
0.46
0.25
0.38
0.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Omonia Nicosia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Omonia Nicosia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.27
1.20
0.20
1.20
0.33
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.11
0.42
1.00
0.38
1.18
0.45
vs Weaker (10)
1.40
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Apoel Nicosia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Apoel Nicosia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apoel Nicosia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apoel Nicosia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Omonia Nicosia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Omonia Nicosia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Omonia Nicosia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Apoel Nicosia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.73
1.25
0.75
0.86
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.76
1.12
0.75
0.33
0.78
vs Weaker (13)
1.54
0.69
1.38
0.75
1.80
0.60
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Omonia Nicosia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Omonia Nicosia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.50
0.87
0.27
0.93
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.74
0.38
0.38
0.73
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
1.50
0.10
1.50
0.17
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Apoel Nicosia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Apoel Nicosia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apoel Nicosia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apoel Nicosia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Omonia Nicosia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Omonia Nicosia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Omonia Nicosia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 2.5 cards
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 3.5 cards
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð° 13. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
ON (37)
€19m
AL (30)
€16m
AN (30)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
Apoel Nicosia's squad is €3m less valuable than Omonia Nicosia's (€15m vs €19m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
ON (13)
€8m
AN (12)
€8m
AL (10)
€7m
ARI (8)
€3m
Apoel Nicosia and Omonia Nicosia have a similar attack value (both €8m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (6)
€4m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (6)
€2m
Apoel Nicosia's midfield is €1m less valuable than Omonia Nicosia's (€3m vs €4m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
ON (18)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
Apoel Nicosia's defence is €2m less valuable than Omonia Nicosia's (€5m vs €7m).
Cyprus: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →