This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Larnaca
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.77
1.47
0.93
1.20
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.05
0.86
1.25
1.08
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (8)
2.12
0.50
2.33
0.33
2.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Apollon Limassol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
60.2%
Under 1.5
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
31.7%
Under 2.5
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
13.9%
Under 3.5
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
40.8%
No
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.2%
1-1
14.9%
0-1
12.6%
1-0
12.0%
0-2
7.1%
1-2 ✓
6.8%
2-1
6.5%
2-0
6.5%
Apollon Limassol goals ↓
AEK Larnaca goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
13%
7.1%
2.4%
0.6%
1
12%
15%
6.8%
2.3%
0.6%
2
6.5%
6.5%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
3
2.1%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Apollon Limassol goals (down), columns = AEK Larnaca goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Pafos
2.28
Aris
2.08
AEK Larnaca
1.89
Omonia Nicosia
1.89
Anorthosis
1.58
Apoel Nicosia
1.47
Apollon Limassol
1.28
AEL
1.18
Ethnikos Achna
1.18
Enosis
1.06
Omonia Aradippou
1.06
Karmiotissa
1.03
Nea Salamis
0.79
Omonia 29is Maiou
0.42
Apollon Limassol is 0.61 points worse than AEK Larnaca in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 1.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Omonia Nicosia
1.92
Pafos
1.86
Aris
1.83
Apoel Nicosia
1.64
AEK Larnaca
1.61
Anorthosis
1.52
Ethnikos Achna
1.33
AEL
1.15
Apollon Limassol
1.03
Omonia Aradippou
0.97
Enosis
0.94
Nea Salamis
0.94
Karmiotissa
0.91
Omonia 29is Maiou
0.70
Apollon Limassol is 0.58 goals worse than AEK Larnaca in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.61).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pafos
0.58
AEK Larnaca
0.83
Aris
0.86
Apoel Nicosia
1.00
Apollon Limassol
1.08
Omonia Nicosia
1.11
Anorthosis
1.27
Enosis
1.45
AEL
1.61
Ethnikos Achna
1.61
Karmiotissa
1.73
Omonia Aradippou
1.76
Nea Salamis
1.88
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.97
Apollon Limassol is 0.25 goals worse than AEK Larnaca in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Apoel Nicosia
58%
Ethnikos Achna
58%
Pafos
56%
AEK Larnaca
53%
Apollon Limassol
53%
Anorthosis
50%
Omonia Nicosia
49%
Omonia Aradippou
46%
Nea Salamis
46%
Aris
46%
Omonia 29is Maiou
45%
AEL
44%
Enosis
40%
Karmiotissa
39%
Apollon Limassol is 0.3 percentage points worse than AEK Larnaca in terms of average possession (53% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Apollon Limassol
For 5.9 · Against 3.5 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 10.4 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AEK Larnaca
For 4.7 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 16.0 · Total 27.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Apollon Limassol
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.6
9.2
4.2
4.3
4.2
25.3
26.4
24.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (34)
9.6
9.5
9.8
5.0
5.0
4.9
25.9
27.1
24.7
vs Weaker (16)
10.7
14.0
7.4
2.7
2.8
2.6
23.4
24.2
22.6
% over line
51%
57%
45%
62%
60%
64%
78%
86%
70%
% under line
49%
43%
55%
38%
40%
36%
22%
14%
30%
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Larnaca
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.3
9.5
4.1
4.5
3.8
25.8
26.3
25.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
9.0
8.5
9.4
3.8
3.9
3.6
27.6
27.9
27.3
vs Weaker (14)
10.2
10.9
9.6
5.1
5.9
4.3
22.3
23.3
21.3
% over line
48%
50%
45%
60%
68%
52%
80%
85%
76%
% under line
52%
50%
55%
40%
32%
48%
20%
15%
24%
This opponent (Apollon Limassol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Omonia Nicosia
10.1
AEL
9.8
Nea Salamis
9.6
Apollon Limassol
9.6
AEK Larnaca
9.4
Aris
9.4
Apoel Nicosia
9.4
Karmiotissa
9.4
Enosis
8.8
Anorthosis
8.8
Pafos
8.5
Ethnikos Achna
8.3
Omonia Aradippou
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Omonia Aradippou
10.0
Aris
5.4
Anorthosis
5.3
Apollon Limassol
5.3
Apoel Nicosia
5.2
Pafos
5.1
Ethnikos Achna
5.1
Enosis
5.0
AEK Larnaca
4.9
Karmiotissa
4.8
Nea Salamis
4.6
AEL
4.6
Omonia Nicosia
4.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Apoel Nicosia
29.7
Anorthosis
29.3
Enosis
28.5
Omonia Aradippou
27.0
AEL
26.8
Karmiotissa
26.7
Ethnikos Achna
26.1
Aris
25.6
AEK Larnaca
25.5
Apollon Limassol
25.3
Pafos
25.3
Nea Salamis
24.9
Omonia Nicosia
23.9
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
50.3%
Under 9.5
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
70.1%
Under 3.5
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
80.3%
Under 21.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Apollon Limassol
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.50
0.60
0.47
1.20
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.89
0.72
0.80
0.70
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (12)
0.92
0.17
0.20
0.00
1.43
0.29
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Larnaca
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.40
0.67
0.53
0.40
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.45
0.67
0.58
0.30
0.30
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
0.25
0.67
0.33
0.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Apollon Limassol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Apollon Limassol over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apollon Limassol over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apollon Limassol over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Apollon Limassol
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.47
0.47
0.93
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.61
0.30
0.50
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (12)
1.00
0.33
0.80
0.40
1.14
0.29
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Larnaca
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.37
0.80
0.40
0.80
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.41
0.58
0.50
0.50
0.30
vs Weaker (8)
1.50
0.25
1.67
0.00
1.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Apollon Limassol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Apollon Limassol over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apollon Limassol over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apollon Limassol over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Apollon Limassol
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Diego Dorregaray40%
Clinton Duodu25%
Charles Boli17%
Gaetan Weissbeck14%
Jaromír Zmrhal0%
Pedro Marques0%
Chambos Kyriakou0%
Danilo Špoljarić0%
Sessi D'Almeida0%
Babacar Dione0%
Giorgos Malekkidis0%
Praxitelis Vouros0%
Quentin Boisgard0%
Israel Coll0%
Ángelo Sagal0%
Thomas Lam0%
Bruno Santos0%
Peter Leeuwenburgh0%
Ali Youssef0%
Julien Celestine0%
Carlos Barahona0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Clinton Duodu75%
Diego Dorregaray40%
Chambos Kyriakou33%
Giorgos Malekkidis33%
Bruno Santos33%
Praxitelis Vouros29%
Israel Coll25%
Ángelo Sagal25%
Thomas Lam25%
Danilo Špoljarić17%
Sessi D'Almeida17%
Charles Boli17%
Quentin Boisgard17%
Gaetan Weissbeck14%
Jaromír Zmrhal0%
Pedro Marques0%
Babacar Dione0%
Peter Leeuwenburgh0%
Ali Youssef0%
Julien Celestine0%
Carlos Barahona0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gaetan Weissbeck14%
Jaromír Zmrhal0%
Pedro Marques0%
Chambos Kyriakou0%
Danilo Špoljarić0%
Sessi D'Almeida0%
Diego Dorregaray0%
Babacar Dione0%
Giorgos Malekkidis0%
Praxitelis Vouros0%
Charles Boli0%
Quentin Boisgard0%
Israel Coll0%
Ángelo Sagal0%
Thomas Lam0%
Bruno Santos0%
Peter Leeuwenburgh0%
Ali Youssef0%
Julien Celestine0%
Carlos Barahona0%
Clinton Duodu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ángelo Sagal50%
Diego Dorregaray40%
Gaetan Weissbeck29%
Clinton Duodu25%
Giorgos Malekkidis17%
Jaromír Zmrhal0%
Pedro Marques0%
Chambos Kyriakou0%
Danilo Špoljarić0%
Sessi D'Almeida0%
Babacar Dione0%
Praxitelis Vouros0%
Charles Boli0%
Quentin Boisgard0%
Israel Coll0%
Thomas Lam0%
Bruno Santos0%
Peter Leeuwenburgh0%
Ali Youssef0%
Julien Celestine0%
Carlos Barahona0%
AEK Larnaca
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Enzo Cabrera67%
Aitor Cantalapiedra50%
Valentin Roberge0%
Fran Sol0%
Giorgos Athanasiadis0%
Marcus Rohdén0%
Karol Angielski0%
Gus Ledes0%
Pere Pons0%
Jorge Miramón0%
Godswill Ekpolo0%
Yerson Chacón0%
Imad Faraj0%
Hrvoje Miličević0%
Jeremie Gnali0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Enzo Cabrera33%
Karol Angielski33%
Yerson Chacón33%
Aitor Cantalapiedra25%
Pere Pons25%
Valentin Roberge0%
Fran Sol0%
Giorgos Athanasiadis0%
Marcus Rohdén0%
Gus Ledes0%
Jorge Miramón0%
Godswill Ekpolo0%
Imad Faraj0%
Hrvoje Miličević0%
Jeremie Gnali0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Yerson Chacón33%
Jeremie Gnali33%
Valentin Roberge0%
Fran Sol0%
Enzo Cabrera0%
Giorgos Athanasiadis0%
Marcus Rohdén0%
Aitor Cantalapiedra0%
Karol Angielski0%
Gus Ledes0%
Pere Pons0%
Jorge Miramón0%
Godswill Ekpolo0%
Imad Faraj0%
Hrvoje Miličević0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Enzo Cabrera33%
Yerson Chacón33%
Valentin Roberge0%
Fran Sol0%
Giorgos Athanasiadis0%
Marcus Rohdén0%
Aitor Cantalapiedra0%
Karol Angielski0%
Gus Ledes0%
Pere Pons0%
Jorge Miramón0%
Godswill Ekpolo0%
Imad Faraj0%
Hrvoje Miličević0%
Jeremie Gnali0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
AL (30)
€16m
AL (24)
€15m
AN (30)
€15m
ON (23)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
AEL (21)
€9m
ANO (25)
€7m
NS (15)
€5m
OA (18)
€5m
KAR (12)
€3m
O2M (10)
€3m
ENO (9)
€1m
EA (2)
€0m
Apollon Limassol and AEK Larnaca have a similar squad value (both €15m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
AN (12)
€8m
ON (9)
€7m
AL (10)
€7m
AL (9)
€7m
AEL (9)
€4m
ARI (8)
€3m
ANO (9)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
OA (5)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
ENO (3)
€0m
O2M (2)
€0m
EA (1)
€0m
Apollon Limassol and AEK Larnaca have a similar attack value (both €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (4)
€3m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (4)
€2m
AL (6)
€2m
AEL (5)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
ANO (6)
€1m
OA (4)
€1m
KAR (3)
€1m
O2M (2)
€0m
ENO (2)
€0m
EA (0)
€0m
Apollon Limassol and AEK Larnaca have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
AL (11)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
ANO (10)
€3m
AEL (7)
€3m
OA (9)
€2m
O2M (6)
€2m
KAR (6)
€2m
NS (7)
€2m
ENO (4)
€1m
EA (1)
€0m
Apollon Limassol and AEK Larnaca have a similar defence value (both €7m).
Cyprus: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Pafos
Aris
Omonia Nicosia
Apoel Nicosia
Anorthosis
Ethnikos Achna
AEL
Enosis
Omonia Aradippou
Karmiotissa
Nea Salamis
Omonia 29is Maiou