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Apolonia Fier vs Besa Kavajë Result & Analysis

Date: 04/05/2024
Time: 14:00
Final 0-1
Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
Vs
57%
26%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
Albania: 1st Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Apolonia Fier win✗ Miss
56.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë win✓ Hit
17.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L20W11D11D21W00D21W01L41W01LA·VOR24/02H·KAS03/03A·LUS09/03H·KOR17/03H·TOM27/03A·FLA31/03H·VOR06/04A·AF 13/04H·BYL21/04A·LUZ28/04
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.330.931.880.880.711.00
vs Stronger (12)1.001.171.501.000.501.33
vs Similar (18)1.560.782.100.800.880.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-513L03L05L02L41W41W10W32W02L00DA·KAS25/02A·VOR03/03H·AF 09/03A·BYL16/03H·LUZ27/03A·TOM31/03A·BUR06/04H·KAS14/04A·LUS21/04H·KOR28/04
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.431.131.270.871.60
vs Stronger (3)0.002.670.003.000.002.00
vs Similar (24)1.041.171.080.831.001.50
vs Weaker (3)1.672.334.003.000.502.00
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Apolonia Fier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.7%
Under 1.5
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.6%
Under 2.5
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.8%
Under 3.5
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.2%
No
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
1-0
11.6%
2-0
11.1%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.4%
3-0
6.5%
3-1
5.6%
0-1 ✓
5.3%
Apolonia Fier goals ↓
Besa Kavajë goals →
01234
08.4%5.3%2.8%0.8%0.2%
112%12%4.9%1.4%0.3%
211%9.7%4.2%1.2%0.3%
36.5%5.6%2.5%0.7%0.2%
42.8%2.5%1.1%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Apolonia Fier goals (down), columns = Besa Kavajë goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
AF Elbasani
2.39
Bylis
2.15
Flamurtari
1.71
Vora
1.47
Apolonia Fier
1.43
Korabi Peshkopi
1.32
Burreli
1.21
Kastrioti Krujë
1.21
Lushnja
1.21
Besa Kavajë
1.21
Luzi 2008
0.94
Tomori Berat
0.52
Luftëtari
0.00
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Apolonia Fier is 0.22 points better than Besa Kavajë in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 1.21).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
2.30
Vora
1.88
Bylis
1.67
Apolonia Fier
1.37
Flamurtari
1.31
Kastrioti Krujë
1.30
Luzi 2008
1.24
Korabi Peshkopi
1.24
Lushnja
1.18
Besa Kavajë
1.09
Luftëtari
1.00
Burreli
0.85
Tomori Berat
0.64
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Apolonia Fier is 0.28 goals better than Besa Kavajë in terms of goals scored per game (1.37 vs 1.09).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flamurtari
0.83
Bylis
0.94
AF Elbasani
0.97
Apolonia Fier
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
1.12
Burreli
1.30
Besa Kavajë
1.41
Kastrioti Krujë
1.42
Lushnja
1.56
Vora
1.59
Luzi 2008
1.70
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
2.00
Tomori Berat
2.18
Luftëtari
3.00
Apolonia Fier is 0.44 goals better than Besa Kavajë in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.41).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L20W00D00D01L00D10W00D10W00DA·VOR24/02H·KAS03/03A·LUS09/03H·KOR17/03H·TOM27/03A·FLA31/03H·VOR06/04A·AF 13/04H·BYL21/04A·LUZ28/04
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.330.690.310.500.36
vs Stronger (12)0.500.330.670.330.330.33
vs Similar (18)0.670.330.700.300.620.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D03L02L20W20W00D11D00D00DA·KAS25/02A·VOR03/03H·AF 09/03A·BYL16/03H·LUZ27/03A·TOM31/03A·BUR06/04H·KAS14/04A·LUS21/04H·KOR28/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.500.400.530.400.47
vs Stronger (3)0.001.330.002.000.000.00
vs Similar (24)0.420.380.330.250.500.50
vs Weaker (3)0.670.672.001.000.000.50
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Apolonia Fier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Apolonia Fier over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D11D11D20W00D11D01L31W01LA·VOR24/02H·KAS03/03A·LUS09/03H·KOR17/03H·TOM27/03A·FLA31/03H·VOR06/04A·AF 13/04H·BYL21/04A·LUZ28/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.601.190.560.210.64
vs Stronger (12)0.500.830.830.670.171.00
vs Similar (18)0.890.441.400.500.250.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L03L02L00D21W21W10W21W02L00DA·KAS25/02A·VOR03/03H·AF 09/03A·BYL16/03H·LUZ27/03A·TOM31/03A·BUR06/04H·KAS14/04A·LUS21/04H·KOR28/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.930.730.730.471.13
vs Stronger (3)0.001.330.001.000.002.00
vs Similar (24)0.620.790.750.580.501.00
vs Weaker (3)1.001.672.002.000.501.50
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Apolonia Fier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Apolonia Fier over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.7%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.573.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (25)
€5m
VOR (25)
€4m
BK (21)
€2m
IF (26)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
AF (18)
€1m
LUF (18)
€1m
LUS (17)
€1m
Apolonia Fier's squad is €1m less valuable than Besa Kavajë's (€1m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (10)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
BK (6)
€1m
IF (9)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
LUF (6)
€0m
BUR (5)
€0m
AF (4)
€0m
LUS (3)
€0m
Apolonia Fier and Besa Kavajë have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (5)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
IF (6)
€0m
AF (3)
€0m
LUF (4)
€0m
LUS (4)
€0m
Apolonia Fier and Besa Kavajë have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (10)
€2m
VOR (11)
€1m
BK (8)
€1m
IF (11)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
AF (11)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
LUF (8)
€0m
LUS (10)
€0m
Apolonia Fier and Besa Kavajë have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
AF wins
3
Draws
1
BK wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Apolonia Fier vs Besa Kavajë · H/A from AF
DateH/AGameScore
02/12/23ABesa Kavajë Vs AF0-0
17/09/23HAF Vs Besa Kavajë1-1
19/02/23HAF Vs Besa Kavajë0-0
19/09/22ABesa Kavajë Vs AF2-1

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/04/24ALuzi 2008 Vs AF1-0
21/04/24HAF Vs Bylis4-1
13/04/24AAF Elbasani Vs AF1-0
06/04/24HAF Vs Vora2-1
31/03/24AFlamurtari Vs AF0-0
27/03/24HAF Vs Tomori Berat2-1
17/03/24HAF Vs Korabi Peshkopi1-1
09/03/24ALushnja Vs AF1-1
03/03/24HAF Vs Kastrioti Krujë2-0
24/02/24AVora Vs AF1-0

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/04/24HBK Vs Korabi Peshkopi0-0
21/04/24ALushnja Vs BK2-0
14/04/24HBK Vs Kastrioti Krujë3-2
06/04/24ABurreli Vs BK0-1
31/03/24ATomori Berat Vs BK1-4
27/03/24HBK Vs Luzi 20084-1
16/03/24ABylis Vs BK2-0
09/03/24HBK Vs AF Elbasani0-5
03/03/24AVora Vs BK3-0
25/02/24AKastrioti Krujë Vs BK3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWL1.52
HomeWDWWW2.00
AwayLDDLL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%58%21%
AVG goals2.202.272.12
Over 1.5 %60%62%58%
Over 2.5 %38%38%38%
Over 3.5 %20%19%21%
Scored1.261.540.96
Conceded0.940.731.17
BTTS52%54%50%
Clean Sheet30%31%29%
Corners---
Cards---
Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLD1.20
HomeLLWWD1.46
AwayLLWWL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%42%23%
AVG goals2.422.462.38
Over 1.5 %62%62%62%
Over 2.5 %38%38%38%
Over 3.5 %26%25%27%
Scored1.121.330.92
Conceded1.301.121.46
BTTS34%29%38%
Clean Sheet36%42%31%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani3379
73%
2.4
7632+44
3.3
82%
64%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.31.0
-
2BylisBylis3371
67%
2.2
5531+24
2.6
73%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.9
-
3FlamurtariFlamurtari3560
46%
1.7
4629+17
2.1
57%
37%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.8
-
4Apolonia FierApolonia Fier3550
37%
1.4
4834+14
2.3
63%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.0
-
5VoraVora3450
44%
1.5
6454+10
3.5
79%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.91.6
-
6Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi3445
35%
1.3
4238+4
2.4
56%
44%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.1
-
7Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë3441
32%
1.2
3748-11
2.5
68%
38%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.11.4
-
8LushnjaLushnja3441
32%
1.2
4053-13
2.7
79%
53%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.6
-
9Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë3340
30%
1.2
4347-4
2.7
73%
48%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1101.31.4
-
10BurreliBurreli3340
36%
1.2
2843-15
2.2
55%
36%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.3
-
11Luzi 2008Luzi 20083331
27%
0.9
4156-15
2.9
73%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
12Tomori BeratTomori Berat3317
12%
0.5
2172-51
2.8
76%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.2
-
13LuftëtariLuftëtari10
0%
0.0
13-2
4.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.03.0
-
14Iliria Fushë-KrujëIliria Fushë-Krujë10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.02.0
-
Albania: 1st Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →

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