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Apolonia Fier vs Burreli Result & Analysis

Date: 03/05/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 4-4
Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
Vs
44%
31%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Burreli
Burreli
Albania: 1st Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U
10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Apolonia Fier a 44% win probability against Burreli in the Albania: 1st Division on 2026-05-03, with 31% for the draw and 26% for Burreli. The model estimates around 2.3 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.3%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (81%).

Results analysis

Apolonia Fier finished 4-4 against Burreli (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 44% home win, 31% draw and 26% away win. Missed: Under 3.5 (81%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Apolonia Fier winâś— Miss
43.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś“ Hit
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Burreli winâś— Miss
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L12L12L01L22D00D02L00D12L12LA·KAS22/02H·POG28/02A·LAC07/03H·SKE14/03A·LUF18/03H·LUS21/03A·FK 04/04A·KOR11/04H·BES19/04A·ILI25/04
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.230.931.210.751.25
vs Stronger (9)1.001.891.002.001.001.75
vs Similar (17)0.590.940.750.880.441.00
vs Weaker (4)1.501.002.000.001.331.33
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Burreli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BurreliBurreli

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D01L00D00D25L03L13L01L02L10WH·KOR22/02A·BES01/03H·ILI07/03H·FK 14/03A·KAS18/03H·POG22/03A·LAC04/04H·SKE11/04A·LUF19/04H·LUS25/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.270.690.810.711.79
vs Stronger (5)0.601.600.751.500.002.00
vs Similar (20)0.851.300.700.701.001.90
vs Weaker (5)0.200.800.500.000.001.33
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Apolonia Fier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.3%
Under 1.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.3%
Under 2.5
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
19.3%
Under 3.5
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.0%
No
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0
12.4%
0-0
11.7%
2-0
9.0%
0-1
8.6%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
6.1%
0-2
4.7%
Apolonia Fier goals ↓
Burreli goals →
01234
012%8.6%4.7%1.5%0.3%
112%14%6.1%1.9%0.5%
29.0%8.5%4.0%1.3%0.3%
34.0%3.7%1.8%0.6%0.1%
41.3%1.2%0.6%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Apolonia Fier goals (down), columns = Burreli goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Laci
2.39
Skenderbeu Korce
2.33
Pogradeci
2.06
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.36
Kastrioti Krujë
1.18
Besa Kavajë
1.18
Burreli
1.12
Korabi Peshkopi
1.09
Luftëtari
1.03
Bylis B
1.00
FK Kukesi
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Apolonia Fier
0.85
Lushnja
0.79
Butrinti Sarandë
0.00
Apolonia Fier is 0.27 points worse than Burreli in terms of average points per game (0.85 vs 1.12).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Pogradeci
1.91
Laci
1.82
Skenderbeu Korce
1.73
Kastrioti Krujë
1.33
Besa Kavajë
1.24
Luftëtari
1.12
Bylis B
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.97
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
0.94
Apolonia Fier
0.94
Burreli
0.82
Lushnja
0.79
Butrinti Sarandë
0.00
Apolonia Fier is 0.12 goals better than Burreli in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 0.82).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Laci
0.70
Skenderbeu Korce
0.76
Pogradeci
0.94
Bylis B
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.00
Korabi Peshkopi
1.18
Luftëtari
1.29
Besa Kavajë
1.30
Apolonia Fier
1.33
Burreli
1.36
Lushnja
1.42
FK Kukesi
1.46
Kastrioti Krujë
1.73
Butrinti Sarandë
2.00
Apolonia Fier is 0.03 goals better than Burreli in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.36).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D01L11D00D11D00D00D00D01L00DA·KAS22/02H·POG28/02A·LAC07/03H·SKE14/03A·LUF18/03H·LUS21/03A·FK 04/04A·KOR11/04H·BES19/04A·ILI25/04
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.230.470.290.570.190.38
vs Stronger (9)0.561.000.601.000.501.00
vs Similar (17)0.000.240.000.380.000.11
vs Weaker (4)0.500.251.000.000.330.33
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Burreli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BurreliBurreli

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L00D00D12L02L11D00D01L10WH·KOR22/02A·BES01/03H·ILI07/03H·FK 14/03A·KAS18/03H·POG22/03A·LAC04/04H·SKE11/04A·LUF19/04H·LUS25/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.270.430.190.380.360.50
vs Stronger (5)0.201.000.251.000.001.00
vs Similar (20)0.350.350.200.200.500.50
vs Weaker (5)0.000.200.000.000.000.33
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Apolonia Fier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Apolonia Fier over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.580.7%-------âś— Miss

đź’° 11. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (55)
€6m
SK (31)
€4m
LAC (24)
€3m
POG (47)
€3m
BK (34)
€3m
AF (39)
€2m
KK (24)
€2m
KP (34)
€2m
FK (38)
€2m
IF (35)
€2m
BUR (29)
€2m
LUF (42)
€2m
LUS (40)
€1m
Apolonia Fier and Burreli have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAC (0)
€0m
SK (0)
€0m
AF (0)
€0m
BK (0)
€0m
BUR (0)
€0m
BB (0)
€0m
FK (0)
€0m
IF (0)
€0m
KK (0)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
LUF (0)
€0m
LUS (0)
€0m
POG (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAC (0)
€0m
SK (0)
€0m
AF (0)
€0m
BK (0)
€0m
BUR (0)
€0m
BB (0)
€0m
FK (0)
€0m
IF (0)
€0m
KK (0)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
LUF (0)
€0m
LUS (0)
€0m
POG (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAC (0)
€0m
SK (0)
€0m
AF (0)
€0m
BK (0)
€0m
BUR (0)
€0m
BB (0)
€0m
FK (0)
€0m
IF (0)
€0m
KK (0)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
LUF (0)
€0m
LUS (0)
€0m
POG (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
AF wins
2
Draws
4
BUR wins

Head-to-head

Apolonia Fier vs Burreli · H/A from AF
DateH/AGameScore
17/01/26ABurreli Vs AF2-0
19/10/25HAF Vs Burreli1-2
23/02/25HAF Vs Burreli0-0
19/01/25ABurreli Vs AF0-1
21/10/24HAF Vs Burreli1-1
08/05/24ABurreli Vs AF2-1
16/12/23ABurreli Vs AF1-0
28/09/23HAF Vs Burreli3-0

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26AIliria Fushë-Krujë Vs AF2-1
19/04/26HAF Vs Besa Kavajë1-2
11/04/26AKorabi Peshkopi Vs AF0-0
04/04/26AFK Kukesi Vs AF2-0
21/03/26HAF Vs Lushnja0-0
18/03/26ALuftëtari Vs AF2-2
14/03/26HAF Vs Skenderbeu Korce0-1
07/03/26ALaci Vs AF2-1
28/02/26HAF Vs Pogradeci1-2
22/02/26AKastrioti Krujë Vs AF1-0

BurreliBurreli

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26HBUR Vs Lushnja1-0
19/04/26ALuftëtari Vs BUR2-0
11/04/26HBUR Vs Skenderbeu Korce0-1
04/04/26ALaci Vs BUR3-1
22/03/26HBUR Vs Pogradeci0-3
18/03/26AKastrioti Krujë Vs BUR5-2
14/03/26HBUR Vs FK Kukesi0-0
07/03/26HBUR Vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë0-0
01/03/26ABesa Kavajë Vs BUR1-0
22/02/26HBUR Vs Korabi Peshkopi0-0

đź“Š 13. Overall Statistics

Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 0 Wins / 3 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDLL1.14
HomeDLLDL1.17
AwayLDLDL1.11
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%26%26%
AVG goals2.082.042.11
Over 1.5 %68%65%70%
Over 2.5 %36%43%30%
Over 3.5 %12%13%11%
Scored1.021.041.00
Conceded1.061.001.11
BTTS44%39%48%
Clean Sheet36%48%26%
Corners---
Cards---
Burreli
Burreli
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW1.34
HomeDDLLW1.41
AwayLLLLL1.26
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%37%35%
AVG goals1.861.482.30
Over 1.5 %56%44%70%
Over 2.5 %32%26%39%
Over 3.5 %10%0%22%
Scored0.820.740.91
Conceded1.040.741.39
BTTS28%26%30%
Clean Sheet44%52%35%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LaciLaci3379
73%
2.4
6023+37
2.5
73%
52%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0001.80.7
-
2Skenderbeu KorceSkenderbeu Korce3377
73%
2.3
5725+32
2.5
64%
45%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.70.8
-
3PogradeciPogradeci3368
61%
2.1
6331+32
2.8
76%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0001.90.9
-
4Iliria Fushë-KrujëIliria Fushë-Krujë3345
33%
1.4
3233-1
2.0
67%
36%
6%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.01.0
-
5Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë3339
30%
1.2
4143-2
2.5
70%
48%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0001.21.3
-
6Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë3339
33%
1.2
4457-13
3.1
76%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.31.7
-
7BurreliBurreli3337
27%
1.1
2745-18
2.2
64%
36%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0000.81.4
-
8Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi3336
24%
1.1
3139-8
2.1
64%
36%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0000.91.2
-
9LuftëtariLuftëtari3435
21%
1.0
3844-6
2.4
76%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.11.3
-
10FK KukesiFK Kukesi3535
26%
1.0
3451-17
2.4
74%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.01.5
-
11Apolonia FierApolonia Fier3328
18%
0.8
3144-13
2.3
70%
39%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0000.91.3
-
12LushnjaLushnja3326
15%
0.8
2647-21
2.2
61%
39%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.81.4
-
13Bylis BBylis B11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
0001.01.0
-
14Sopoti LibrazhdSopoti Librazhd11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
15Butrinti SarandëButrinti Sarandë10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
Albania: 1st Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →

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