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Apolonia Fier vs Lushnja Result & Analysis

Date: 22/11/2023
Time: 12:30
Final 4-1
Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
Vs
60%
24%
16%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Lushnja
Lushnja
Albania: 1st Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Apolonia Fier winâś“ Hit
59.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lushnja winâś— Miss
16.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W11D23L30W00D41W30W01L11D21WA·KOR13/09H·BES17/09A·AF 24/09H·BUR28/09A·FLA02/10H·TOM07/10A·LUZ22/10H·BYL29/10A·KAS06/11H·VOR11/11
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.330.901.330.601.331.20
vs Stronger (10)1.101.600.750.751.332.17
vs Similar (20)1.450.551.550.551.330.56
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Lushnja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LushnjaLushnja

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-434L01L20W04L00D21W01L31W22D00DA·BES13/09H·AF 18/09A·BUR23/09H·FLA28/09A·TOM01/10H·LUZ07/10A·BYL22/10H·KAS29/10A·VOR06/11H·KOR11/11
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.571.191.190.932.00
vs Stronger (18)0.891.941.001.220.782.67
vs Similar (12)1.331.001.431.141.200.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Apolonia Fier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%315%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.5%
Under 1.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.5%
Under 2.5
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.3%
Under 3.5
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.0%
No
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
2-0
11.1%
1-0
10.7%
2-1
9.9%
0-0
7.3%
3-0
7.0%
3-1
6.2%
1-2
4.6%
Apolonia Fier goals ↓
Lushnja goals →
01234
07.3%4.5%2.5%0.7%0.2%
111%11%4.6%1.4%0.3%
211%9.9%4.4%1.3%0.3%
37.0%6.2%2.8%0.8%0.2%
43.3%2.9%1.3%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Apolonia Fier goals (down), columns = Lushnja goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
AF Elbasani
2.39
Bylis
2.15
Flamurtari
1.71
Vora
1.47
Apolonia Fier
1.43
Korabi Peshkopi
1.32
Burreli
1.21
Kastrioti Krujë
1.21
Lushnja
1.21
Besa Kavajë
1.21
Luzi 2008
0.94
Tomori Berat
0.52
Luftëtari
0.00
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Apolonia Fier is 0.22 points better than Lushnja in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 1.21).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
2.30
Vora
1.88
Bylis
1.67
Apolonia Fier
1.37
Flamurtari
1.31
Kastrioti Krujë
1.30
Luzi 2008
1.24
Korabi Peshkopi
1.24
Lushnja
1.18
Besa Kavajë
1.09
Luftëtari
1.00
Burreli
0.85
Tomori Berat
0.64
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Apolonia Fier is 0.19 goals better than Lushnja in terms of goals scored per game (1.37 vs 1.18).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flamurtari
0.83
Bylis
0.94
AF Elbasani
0.97
Apolonia Fier
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
1.12
Burreli
1.30
Besa Kavajë
1.41
Kastrioti Krujë
1.42
Lushnja
1.56
Vora
1.59
Luzi 2008
1.70
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
2.00
Tomori Berat
2.18
Luftëtari
3.00
Apolonia Fier is 0.59 goals better than Lushnja in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.56).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L21W20W00D11D20W00D11D11DA·KOR13/09H·BES17/09A·AF 24/09H·BUR28/09A·FLA02/10H·TOM07/10A·LUZ22/10H·BYL29/10A·KAS06/11H·VOR11/11
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.370.470.200.730.53
vs Stronger (10)0.500.600.250.250.670.83
vs Similar (20)0.650.250.550.180.780.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Lushnja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LushnjaLushnja

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L01L10W00D00D20W00D20W11D00DA·BES13/09H·AF 18/09A·BUR23/09H·FLA28/09A·TOM01/10H·LUZ07/10A·BYL22/10H·KAS29/10A·VOR06/11H·KOR11/11
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.570.500.380.210.79
vs Stronger (18)0.280.830.330.440.221.22
vs Similar (12)0.500.170.710.290.200.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Apolonia Fier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Apolonia Fier over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lushnja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lushnja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lushnja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W02L10W00D30W10W01L00D10WA·KOR13/09H·BES17/09A·AF 24/09H·BUR28/09A·FLA02/10H·TOM07/10A·LUZ22/10H·BYL29/10A·KAS06/11H·VOR11/11
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.530.870.400.600.67
vs Stronger (10)0.601.000.500.500.671.33
vs Similar (20)0.800.301.000.360.560.22
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Lushnja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LushnjaLushnja

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D00D10W04L00D01L01L11D11D00DA·BES13/09H·AF 18/09A·BUR23/09H·FLA28/09A·TOM01/10H·LUZ07/10A·BYL22/10H·KAS29/10A·VOR06/11H·KOR11/11
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.000.690.810.711.21
vs Stronger (18)0.611.110.670.780.561.44
vs Similar (12)0.830.830.710.861.000.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Apolonia Fier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Apolonia Fier over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lushnja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lushnja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lushnja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.5%-------âś“ Hit

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (25)
€5m
VOR (25)
€4m
BK (21)
€2m
IF (26)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
AF (18)
€1m
LUF (18)
€1m
LUS (17)
€1m
Apolonia Fier and Lushnja have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (10)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
BK (6)
€1m
IF (9)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
LUF (6)
€0m
BUR (5)
€0m
AF (4)
€0m
LUS (3)
€0m
Apolonia Fier and Lushnja have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (5)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
IF (6)
€0m
AF (3)
€0m
LUF (4)
€0m
LUS (4)
€0m
Apolonia Fier and Lushnja have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (10)
€2m
VOR (11)
€1m
BK (8)
€1m
IF (11)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
AF (11)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
LUF (8)
€0m
LUS (10)
€0m
Apolonia Fier and Lushnja have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
AF wins
1
Draws
0
LUS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Apolonia Fier vs Lushnja · H/A from AF
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/23ALushnja Vs AF0-3
25/02/23ALushnja Vs AF1-1
01/10/22HAF Vs Lushnja3-0

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/11/23HAF Vs Vora2-1
06/11/23AKastrioti Krujë Vs AF1-1
29/10/23HAF Vs Bylis0-1
22/10/23ALuzi 2008 Vs AF0-3
07/10/23HAF Vs Tomori Berat4-1
02/10/23AFlamurtari Vs AF0-0
28/09/23HAF Vs Burreli3-0
24/09/23AAF Elbasani Vs AF3-2
17/09/23HAF Vs Besa Kavajë1-1
13/09/23AKorabi Peshkopi Vs AF0-1

LushnjaLushnja

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/11/23HLUS Vs Korabi Peshkopi0-0
06/11/23AVora Vs LUS2-2
29/10/23HLUS Vs Kastrioti Krujë3-1
22/10/23ABylis Vs LUS1-0
07/10/23HLUS Vs Luzi 20082-1
01/10/23ATomori Berat Vs LUS0-0
28/09/23HLUS Vs Flamurtari0-4
23/09/23ABurreli Vs LUS0-2
18/09/23HLUS Vs AF Elbasani0-1
13/09/23ABesa Kavajë Vs LUS4-3

đź“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDW1.58
HomeDWWLW2.00
AwayWLDWD1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%61%25%
AVG goals2.392.392.40
Over 1.5 %66%56%75%
Over 2.5 %45%44%45%
Over 3.5 %21%22%20%
Scored1.371.611.15
Conceded1.030.781.25
BTTS53%44%60%
Clean Sheet34%39%30%
Corners---
Cards---
Lushnja
Lushnja
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDD1.19
HomeLLWWD1.80
AwayLWDLD0.47
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%50%6%
AVG goals2.682.353.06
Over 1.5 %73%65%82%
Over 2.5 %51%50%53%
Over 3.5 %30%25%35%
Scored1.081.250.88
Conceded1.591.102.18
BTTS49%50%47%
Clean Sheet22%30%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani3379
73%
2.4
7632+44
3.3
82%
64%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.31.0
-
2BylisBylis3371
67%
2.2
5531+24
2.6
73%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.9
-
3FlamurtariFlamurtari3560
46%
1.7
4629+17
2.1
57%
37%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.8
-
4Apolonia FierApolonia Fier3550
37%
1.4
4834+14
2.3
63%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.0
-
5VoraVora3450
44%
1.5
6454+10
3.5
79%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.91.6
-
6Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi3445
35%
1.3
4238+4
2.4
56%
44%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.1
-
7Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë3441
32%
1.2
3748-11
2.5
68%
38%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.11.4
-
8LushnjaLushnja3441
32%
1.2
4053-13
2.7
79%
53%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.6
-
9Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë3340
30%
1.2
4347-4
2.7
73%
48%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1101.31.4
-
10BurreliBurreli3340
36%
1.2
2843-15
2.2
55%
36%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.3
-
11Luzi 2008Luzi 20083331
27%
0.9
4156-15
2.9
73%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
12Tomori BeratTomori Berat3317
12%
0.5
2172-51
2.8
76%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.2
-
13LuftëtariLuftëtari10
0%
0.0
13-2
4.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.03.0
-
14Iliria Fushë-KrujëIliria Fushë-Krujë10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.02.0
-
Albania: 1st Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →

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