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Apolonia Fier vs Luzi 2008 Result & Analysis

Date: 03/02/2024
Time: 12:30
Final 1-0
Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
Vs
53%
26%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Luzi 2008
Luzi 2008
Albania: 1st Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Apolonia Fier winâś“ Hit
52.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Luzi 2008 winâś— Miss
20.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L11D21W41W22D00D01L01L11D12LH·BYL29/10A·KAS06/11H·VOR11/11H·LUS22/11H·KOR26/11A·BES02/12H·AF 11/12A·BUR16/12H·FLA20/01A·TOM28/01
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.430.971.670.731.201.20
vs Stronger (10)1.101.700.751.001.332.17
vs Similar (20)1.600.602.000.641.110.56
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Luzi 2008) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Luzi 2008Luzi 2008

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L24L51W12L20W00D13L31W13L12LA·BES29/10H·AF 06/11A·BUR11/11A·FLA22/11H·TOM26/11A·KOR02/12A·BYL10/12H·KAS16/12A·VOR21/01H·LUS28/01
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.331.071.201.001.47
vs Stronger (1)2.004.002.004.00--
vs Similar (26)0.961.230.921.001.001.43
vs Weaker (3)1.331.331.501.001.002.00
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Apolonia Fier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.7%
Under 1.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.9%
Under 2.5
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.9%
Under 3.5
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.2%
No
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
1-0 âś“
10.5%
2-0
9.8%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.1%
0-1
5.7%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
5.5%
Apolonia Fier goals ↓
Luzi 2008 goals →
01234
08.1%5.7%3.3%1.1%0.3%
111%13%5.6%1.9%0.5%
29.8%9.7%4.8%1.6%0.4%
35.5%5.4%2.7%0.9%0.2%
42.3%2.3%1.1%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Apolonia Fier goals (down), columns = Luzi 2008 goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
AF Elbasani
2.39
Bylis
2.15
Flamurtari
1.71
Vora
1.47
Apolonia Fier
1.43
Korabi Peshkopi
1.32
Burreli
1.21
Kastrioti Krujë
1.21
Lushnja
1.21
Besa Kavajë
1.21
Luzi 2008
0.94
Tomori Berat
0.52
Luftëtari
0.00
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Apolonia Fier is 0.49 points better than Luzi 2008 in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 0.94).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
2.30
Vora
1.88
Bylis
1.67
Apolonia Fier
1.37
Flamurtari
1.31
Kastrioti Krujë
1.30
Luzi 2008
1.24
Korabi Peshkopi
1.24
Lushnja
1.18
Besa Kavajë
1.09
Luftëtari
1.00
Burreli
0.85
Tomori Berat
0.64
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Apolonia Fier is 0.13 goals better than Luzi 2008 in terms of goals scored per game (1.37 vs 1.24).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flamurtari
0.83
Bylis
0.94
AF Elbasani
0.97
Apolonia Fier
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
1.12
Burreli
1.30
Besa Kavajë
1.41
Kastrioti Krujë
1.42
Lushnja
1.56
Vora
1.59
Luzi 2008
1.70
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
2.00
Tomori Berat
2.18
Luftëtari
3.00
Apolonia Fier is 0.73 goals better than Luzi 2008 in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.70).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D11D11D00D00D00D00D01L11D11DH·BYL29/10A·KAS06/11H·VOR11/11H·LUS22/11H·KOR26/11A·BES02/12H·AF 11/12A·BUR16/12H·FLA20/01A·TOM28/01
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.430.530.270.670.60
vs Stronger (10)0.600.700.500.500.670.83
vs Similar (20)0.600.300.550.180.670.44
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Luzi 2008) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Luzi 2008Luzi 2008

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L13L21W01L00D00D11D11D01L00DA·BES29/10H·AF 06/11A·BUR11/11A·FLA22/11H·TOM26/11A·KOR02/12A·BYL10/12H·KAS16/12A·VOR21/01H·LUS28/01
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.670.330.600.330.73
vs Stronger (1)1.003.001.003.00--
vs Similar (26)0.310.580.250.500.360.64
vs Weaker (3)0.330.670.500.000.002.00
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Apolonia Fier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Apolonia Fier over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Luzi 2008 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Luzi 2008 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Luzi 2008 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L00D10W41W22D00D01L00D00D01LH·BYL29/10A·KAS06/11H·VOR11/11H·LUS22/11H·KOR26/11A·BES02/12H·AF 11/12A·BUR16/12H·FLA20/01A·TOM28/01
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.531.130.470.530.60
vs Stronger (10)0.501.000.250.500.671.33
vs Similar (20)1.000.301.450.450.440.11
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Luzi 2008) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Luzi 2008Luzi 2008

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D30W11D20W00D02L20W12L12LA·BES29/10H·AF 06/11A·BUR11/11A·FLA22/11H·TOM26/11A·KOR02/12A·BYL10/12H·KAS16/12A·VOR21/01H·LUS28/01
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.670.730.600.670.73
vs Stronger (1)1.001.001.001.00--
vs Similar (26)0.650.650.670.500.640.79
vs Weaker (3)1.000.671.001.001.000.00
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Apolonia Fier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Apolonia Fier over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Luzi 2008 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Luzi 2008 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Luzi 2008 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.7%-------âś— Miss
Under 3.572.1%-------âś“ Hit

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (25)
€5m
VOR (25)
€4m
BK (21)
€2m
IF (26)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
AF (18)
€1m
LUF (18)
€1m
LUS (17)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (10)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
BK (6)
€1m
IF (9)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
LUF (6)
€0m
BUR (5)
€0m
AF (4)
€0m
LUS (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (5)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
IF (6)
€0m
AF (3)
€0m
LUF (4)
€0m
LUS (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (10)
€2m
VOR (11)
€1m
BK (8)
€1m
IF (11)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
AF (11)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
LUF (8)
€0m
LUS (10)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
AF wins
1
Draws
0
L2 wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Apolonia Fier vs Luzi 2008 · H/A from AF
DateH/AGameScore
22/10/23ALuzi 2008 Vs AF0-3
07/05/23HAF Vs Luzi 20081-0
21/12/22ALuzi 2008 Vs AF1-1

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/01/24ATomori Berat Vs AF2-1
20/01/24HAF Vs Flamurtari1-1
16/12/23ABurreli Vs AF1-0
11/12/23HAF Vs AF Elbasani0-1
02/12/23ABesa Kavajë Vs AF0-0
26/11/23HAF Vs Korabi Peshkopi2-2
22/11/23HAF Vs Lushnja4-1
11/11/23HAF Vs Vora2-1
06/11/23AKastrioti Krujë Vs AF1-1
29/10/23HAF Vs Bylis0-1

Luzi 2008Luzi 2008

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/01/24HL2 Vs Lushnja1-2
21/01/24AVora Vs L23-1
16/12/23HL2 Vs Kastrioti Krujë3-1
10/12/23ABylis Vs L23-1
02/12/23AKorabi Peshkopi Vs L20-0
26/11/23HL2 Vs Tomori Berat2-0
22/11/23AFlamurtari Vs L22-1
11/11/23ABurreli Vs L21-5
06/11/23HL2 Vs AF Elbasani2-4
29/10/23ABesa Kavajë Vs L22-0

đź“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLDL1.47
HomeWWDLD1.86
AwayWDDLL1.09
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%55%22%
AVG goals2.382.502.26
Over 1.5 %64%59%70%
Over 2.5 %44%45%43%
Over 3.5 %22%27%17%
Scored1.331.641.04
Conceded1.040.861.22
BTTS53%50%57%
Clean Sheet31%32%30%
Corners---
Cards---
Luzi 2008
Luzi 2008
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLL1.09
HomeLLWWL1.43
AwayWLDLL0.77
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%38%18%
AVG goals2.372.242.50
Over 1.5 %70%71%68%
Over 2.5 %44%38%50%
Over 3.5 %21%14%27%
Scored1.091.141.05
Conceded1.281.101.45
BTTS51%48%55%
Clean Sheet28%38%18%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani3379
73%
2.4
7632+44
3.3
82%
64%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.31.0
-
2BylisBylis3371
67%
2.2
5531+24
2.6
73%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.9
-
3FlamurtariFlamurtari3560
46%
1.7
4629+17
2.1
57%
37%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.8
-
4Apolonia FierApolonia Fier3550
37%
1.4
4834+14
2.3
63%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.0
-
5VoraVora3450
44%
1.5
6454+10
3.5
79%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.91.6
-
6Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi3445
35%
1.3
4238+4
2.4
56%
44%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.1
-
7Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë3441
32%
1.2
3748-11
2.5
68%
38%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.11.4
-
8LushnjaLushnja3441
32%
1.2
4053-13
2.7
79%
53%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.6
-
9Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë3340
30%
1.2
4347-4
2.7
73%
48%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1101.31.4
-
10BurreliBurreli3340
36%
1.2
2843-15
2.2
55%
36%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.3
-
11Luzi 2008Luzi 20083331
27%
0.9
4156-15
2.9
73%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
12Tomori BeratTomori Berat3317
12%
0.5
2172-51
2.8
76%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.2
-
13LuftëtariLuftëtari10
0%
0.0
13-2
4.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.03.0
-
14Iliria Fushë-KrujëIliria Fushë-Krujë10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.02.0
-
Albania: 1st Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →

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