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Ararat-Armenia vs Alashkert Result & Analysis

Date: 25/09/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 2-1
Ararat-Armenia
Ararat-Armenia
Vs
69%
18%
13%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Alashkert
Alashkert
Armenia: Premier League
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Ararat-Armenia win✓ Hit
68.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
18.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Alashkert win✗ Miss
13.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-660W00D11D00D14L12L10W42W32W22DH·ARA28/05H·UNI24/07A·UNI31/07A·VAN04/08A·SPA07/08H·SPA14/08A·SHI24/08H·ARA30/08A·FC 14/09H·FC 20/09
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.231.032.570.931.941.12
vs Stronger (2)1.003.001.002.001.004.00
vs Similar (11)1.451.361.201.401.671.33
vs Weaker (17)2.880.593.620.502.220.67
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AlashkertAlashkert

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W04L02L10W12L30W10W20W31W20WH·GAN02/05A·SHI10/05A·BKM22/05H·FC 27/05H·PYU04/08H·ARA16/08A·FC 22/08H·FC 31/08A·BKM13/09H·GAN21/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.531.251.440.641.64
vs Stronger (9)0.782.221.002.000.332.67
vs Similar (11)1.001.001.331.170.600.80
vs Weaker (10)1.101.501.501.000.831.83
Clean sheet %30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%4%09%119%221%319%414%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.7%
Under 1.5
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.9%
Under 2.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.5%
Under 3.5
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.3%
No
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1 ✓
9.4%
2-0
9.0%
1-1
8.3%
3-1
7.9%
3-0
7.5%
1-0
6.4%
4-1
4.9%
2-2
4.9%
Ararat-Armenia goals ↓
Alashkert goals →
01234
03.6%2.2%1.6%0.5%0.1%
16.4%8.3%3.9%1.4%0.4%
29.0%9.4%4.9%1.7%0.4%
37.5%7.9%4.1%1.4%0.4%
44.7%4.9%2.6%0.9%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat-Armenia goals (down), columns = Alashkert goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ararat-Armenia
2.22
FC Noah
2.07
Pyunik Yerevan
2.04
Alashkert
1.96
FC Urartu
1.81
Van
1.15
BKMA
0.85
Gandzasar
0.78
Ararat
0.48
Shirak
0.48
Ararat-Armenia is 0.26 points better than Alashkert in terms of average points per game (2.22 vs 1.96).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.26
Ararat-Armenia
1.85
FC Urartu
1.59
Alashkert
1.56
Pyunik Yerevan
1.37
BKMA
1.11
Van
1.00
Ararat
0.78
Gandzasar
0.74
Shirak
0.63
Ararat-Armenia is 0.30 goals better than Alashkert in terms of goals scored per game (1.85 vs 1.56).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.67
FC Noah
0.70
Alashkert
0.85
Ararat-Armenia
0.93
FC Urartu
0.96
Van
1.48
Gandzasar
1.52
BKMA
1.56
Shirak
1.89
Ararat
2.33
Ararat-Armenia is 0.07 goals worse than Alashkert in terms of goals conceded per game (0.93 vs 0.85).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D01L00D12L11D00D12L10W11DH·ARA28/05H·UNI24/07A·UNI31/07A·VAN04/08A·SPA07/08H·SPA14/08A·SHI24/08H·ARA30/08A·FC 14/09H·FC 20/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.631.070.600.800.67
vs Stronger (2)1.001.501.001.001.002.00
vs Similar (11)0.640.730.400.800.830.67
vs Weaker (17)1.120.471.440.440.750.50
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AlashkertAlashkert

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L01L10W10W20W00D20W20W10WH·GAN02/05A·SHI10/05A·BKM22/05H·FC 27/05H·PYU04/08H·ARA16/08A·FC 22/08H·FC 31/08A·BKM13/09H·GAN21/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.600.620.440.430.79
vs Stronger (9)0.671.000.830.670.331.67
vs Similar (11)0.180.360.170.330.200.40
vs Weaker (10)0.800.501.000.250.670.67
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W00D10W00D02L01L10W30W22D11DH·ARA28/05H·UNI24/07A·UNI31/07A·VAN04/08A·SPA07/08H·SPA14/08A·SHI24/08H·ARA30/08A·FC 14/09H·FC 20/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.300.471.530.401.070.53
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.001.000.002.00
vs Similar (11)0.820.640.800.600.830.67
vs Weaker (17)1.760.242.110.221.380.25
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AlashkertAlashkert

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W02L01L00D02L10W10W00D11D10WH·GAN02/05A·SHI10/05A·BKM22/05H·FC 27/05H·PYU04/08H·ARA16/08A·FC 22/08H·FC 31/08A·BKM13/09H·GAN21/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.930.621.000.210.86
vs Stronger (9)0.111.220.171.330.001.00
vs Similar (11)0.820.641.170.830.400.40
vs Weaker (10)0.301.000.500.750.171.17
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
Ararat-Armenia's squad is €3m more valuable than Alashkert's (€8m vs €5m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia and Alashkert have a similar attack value (both €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia and Alashkert have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
Ararat-Armenia's defence is €2m more valuable than Alashkert's (€4m vs €2m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
ARA wins
2
Draws
1
ALA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ararat-Armenia vs Alashkert · H/A from ARA
DateH/AGameScore
15/03/25HARA Vs Alashkert3-0
27/11/24AAlashkert Vs ARA2-2
30/08/24HARA Vs Alashkert3-1
26/05/24AAlashkert Vs ARA1-3
04/04/24HARA Vs Alashkert2-1
30/11/23AAlashkert Vs ARA1-1
25/09/23HARA Vs Alashkert3-1
10/05/23HARA Vs Alashkert0-1

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/09/25HARA Vs FC Noah2-2
14/09/25AFC Urartu Vs ARA2-3
30/08/25HARA Vs Ararat4-2
24/08/25AShirak Vs ARA0-1
14/08/25HARA Vs Sparta Praha1-2
07/08/25ASparta Praha Vs ARA4-1
04/08/25AVan Vs ARA0-0
31/07/25AUniversitatea Cluj Vs ARA1-1
24/07/25HARA Vs Universitatea Cluj0-0
28/05/25HARA Vs Ararat6-0

AlashkertAlashkert

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/09/25HALA Vs Gandzasar2-0
13/09/25ABKMA Vs ALA1-3
31/08/25HALA Vs FC Noah2-0
22/08/25AFC Urartu Vs ALA0-1
16/08/25HALA Vs Ararat3-0
04/08/25HALA Vs Pyunik Yerevan1-2
27/05/25HALA Vs FC Noah1-0
22/05/25ABKMA Vs ALA2-0
10/05/25AShirak Vs ALA4-0
02/05/25HALA Vs Gandzasar1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ararat-Armenia
Ararat-Armenia
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWD2.00
HomeWDLWD2.00
AwayDDLWW2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%61%59%
AVG goals3.343.483.22
Over 1.5 %86%87%85%
Over 2.5 %74%74%74%
Over 3.5 %46%52%41%
Scored2.282.482.11
Conceded1.061.001.11
BTTS54%57%52%
Clean Sheet40%35%44%
Corners8.5010.007.00
Cards6.506.007.00
Alashkert
Alashkert
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 7 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.02
HomeWLWWW1.08
AwayLLLWW0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%28%28%
AVG goals2.802.682.92
Over 1.5 %82%84%80%
Over 2.5 %50%48%52%
Over 3.5 %32%28%36%
Scored1.101.081.12
Conceded1.701.601.80
BTTS44%44%44%
Clean Sheet24%28%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia2760
67%
2.2
5025+25
2.8
70%
56%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3241.90.9
-
2FC NoahFC Noah2756
59%
2.1
6119+42
3.0
81%
56%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5342.30.7
-
3Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan2755
63%
2.0
3718+19
2.0
63%
37%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.40.7
-
4AlashkertAlashkert2753
59%
2.0
4223+19
2.4
74%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3121.60.9
-
5FC UrartuFC Urartu2749
52%
1.8
4326+17
2.6
67%
41%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.0
-
6VanVan2731
33%
1.1
2740-13
2.5
67%
56%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.5
-
7BKMABKMA2723
15%
0.9
3042-12
2.7
81%
52%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.11.6
-
8GandzasarGandzasar2721
19%
0.8
2041-21
2.3
59%
33%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.71.5
-
9ShirakShirak2713
7%
0.5
1751-34
2.5
67%
44%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.61.9
-
10AraratArarat2713
11%
0.5
2163-42
3.1
81%
52%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0120.82.3
-
Armenia: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →

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