Ararat-Armenia are the clear favourites to win at home, with a 55% chance of triumph, a 26% chance of a draw and a 19% chance of an Alashkert victory. The model predicts an average of 2.7 goals, most likely a 2-goal match, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 12.3% probability. Ararat-Armenia, playing against a weaker side at home, have been scoring 2.25 goals per game while conceding only 0.38. Alashkert, on the road against a stronger opponent, average 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.4%), Under 6.5 (98.0%), Under 5.5 (94.4%), Home +2 handicap (93.1%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (90.0%) and Under 4.5 (86.3%). All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ararat-Armenia win
52.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Alashkert win
20.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ararat-Armenia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.97
1.73
0.73
1.67
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.13
1.13
1.14
1.14
1.12
1.12
vs Weaker (15)
2.27
0.80
2.25
0.38
2.29
1.29
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alashkert
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.87
1.87
0.40
1.40
1.33
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.33
0.67
0.67
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (11)
1.82
0.64
2.17
0.50
1.40
0.80
vs Weaker (10)
2.30
0.70
2.17
0.17
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.6%
Under 1.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.7%
Under 2.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.8%
Under 3.5
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.0%
No
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
1-0
10.6%
2-0
9.9%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.1%
0-1
5.7%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
5.5%
Ararat-Armenia goals ↓
Alashkert goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
5.7%
3.4%
1.1%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.6%
1.8%
0.5%
2
9.9%
9.7%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
3
5.5%
5.4%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.3%
2.3%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat-Armenia goals (down), columns = Alashkert goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Noah
3.00
Pyunik Yerevan
2.50
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.17
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.40
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Gandzasar
0.60
Syunik
0.20
Van
0.17
Ararat-Armenia is 0.17 points worse than Alashkert in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 2.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.60
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.33
Pyunik Yerevan
2.25
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.60
Gandzasar
1.20
BKMA
0.80
Syunik
0.60
Ararat
0.60
Van
0.33
Ararat-Armenia is 0.33 goals worse than Alashkert in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 2.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alashkert
0.33
FC Noah
0.60
Pyunik Yerevan
0.75
FC Urartu
1.00
Sardarapat
1.00
Shirak
1.00
BKMA
1.20
Ararat-Armenia
1.40
Ararat
2.40
Gandzasar
2.40
Syunik
2.60
Van
3.00
Ararat-Armenia is 1.07 goals worse than Alashkert in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 0.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ararat-Armenia or Draw
79.2%
Avg Implied -
53%
26%
21%
covers Ararat-Armenia + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia or Alashkert
73.5%
Avg Implied -
53%
26%
21%
covers Ararat-Armenia + Alashkert
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Alashkert
47.3%
Avg Implied -
53%
26%
21%
covers Draw + Alashkert
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5
Over
81.4%
Under
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5
Over
50.1%
Under
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5
Over
23.8%
Under
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 3.5
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 0.5
Over
62.5%
Under
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5
Over
25.7%
Under
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ararat-Armenia, so a minus line means Ararat-Armenia give that many goals of a start and Alashkert receive them. At -1, Ararat-Armenia must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ararat-Armenia win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ararat-Armenia)
Ararat-Armenia -2
12.8%
Draw -2
16.5%
Alashkert +2
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ararat-Armenia)
Ararat-Armenia -1
29.4%
Draw -1
23.3%
Alashkert +1
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ararat-Armenia)
Ararat-Armenia +1
79.2%
Draw +1
13.1%
Alashkert -1
7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ararat-Armenia)
Ararat-Armenia +2
92.3%
Draw +2
5.6%
Alashkert -2
2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ararat-Armenia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.80
0.47
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.73
0.71
0.71
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (15)
0.80
0.33
0.88
0.25
0.71
0.43
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alashkert
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.80
0.27
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
0.78
0.00
0.33
0.17
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.45
1.17
0.33
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (10)
1.30
0.20
0.83
0.17
2.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ararat-Armenia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.43
0.93
0.27
1.13
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.40
0.43
0.43
0.75
0.38
vs Weaker (15)
1.47
0.47
1.38
0.12
1.57
0.86
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alashkert
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.40
1.07
0.13
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.56
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.67
vs Similar (11)
1.00
0.18
1.00
0.17
1.00
0.20
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.50
1.33
0.00
0.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
SAR (23)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
Ararat-Armenia's squad is €3m more valuable than Alashkert's (€8m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia and Alashkert have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
VAN (3)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia and Alashkert have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
SAR (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia's defence is €2m more valuable than Alashkert's (€4m vs €2m).
Armenia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Noah
Sardarapat
Pyunik Yerevan
FC Urartu
Shirak
BKMA
Gandzasar
Ararat
Syunik
Van