Ararat-Armenia are tipped to win, with a 55% chance of taking the match home, a 24% chance of a draw and a 21% chance of an Ararat win. The model expects three goals on average, with the most likely total of two goals at 23%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.5% probability. Ararat-Armenia, playing at home against a weaker side, average 2.33 goals scored and 0.78 conceded, while Ararat, on the road against a stronger opponent, average 1.3 scored and 1.9 conceded. The suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 81.2% probability of success. The match’s recent form shows Ararat-Armenia coming off a defeat, while Ararat has endured two straight losses. The final result was a 2-1 home win.
Results analysis
Ararat-Armenia’s recent form, still on a win-streak after a defeat, set the stage for a home victory that the model predicted correctly. The match finished 2-1 in favour of the hosts, matching the actual result. The favourite, Home win, carried a 55% probability and was indeed correct. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5 goals, with an 81.2% probability, hit as the match produced three goals. The predicted most likely score of 2-0 at 8.9% did not materialise, but the 2-1 outcome was within the model’s broader forecast. Overall, the predictions aligned well with the on-field reality.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ararat-Armenia win✓ Hit
54.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat win✗ Miss
21.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ararat-Armenia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.00
2.07
1.13
1.60
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.42
1.50
1.67
1.67
1.17
1.33
vs Weaker (18)
2.11
0.67
2.33
0.78
1.89
0.56
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.37
0.80
1.20
1.47
1.53
vs Stronger (19)
0.89
1.68
0.44
1.44
1.30
1.90
vs Similar (11)
1.55
0.82
1.33
0.83
1.80
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.2%
Under 1.5
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.7%
Under 2.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.3%
Under 3.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.0%
No
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
2-1 ✓
9.9%
2-0
8.9%
1-0
8.4%
3-1
6.2%
0-0
6.0%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
5.6%
Ararat-Armenia goals ↓
Ararat goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
4.5%
3.1%
1.1%
0.3%
1
8.4%
11%
5.8%
2.1%
0.6%
2
8.9%
9.9%
5.5%
2.0%
0.6%
3
5.6%
6.2%
3.5%
1.3%
0.4%
4
2.7%
2.9%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat-Armenia goals (down), columns = Ararat goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.28
FC Noah
2.22
Ararat-Armenia
2.08
FC Urartu
1.39
Alashkert
1.25
Ararat
1.25
West Armenia
1.03
Shirak
0.92
Van
0.89
BKMA
0.75
Ararat-Armenia is 0.83 points better than Ararat in terms of average points per game (2.08 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.33
Ararat-Armenia
2.03
FC Noah
1.92
Alashkert
1.50
FC Urartu
1.36
West Armenia
1.19
Ararat
1.08
Van
0.89
BKMA
0.89
Shirak
0.78
Ararat-Armenia is 0.94 goals better than Ararat in terms of goals scored per game (2.03 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.78
FC Noah
0.92
Ararat-Armenia
0.94
Shirak
1.28
FC Urartu
1.36
Ararat
1.39
Alashkert
1.56
Van
1.86
BKMA
1.86
West Armenia
2.03
Ararat-Armenia is 0.44 goals better than Ararat in terms of goals conceded per game (0.94 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ararat-Armenia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.33
1.13
0.13
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.58
1.33
0.33
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (18)
0.72
0.17
1.00
0.00
0.44
0.33
Clean sheet %
70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.40
0.60
0.73
0.93
vs Stronger (19)
0.47
1.05
0.33
0.67
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.27
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ararat-Armenia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.67
0.93
1.00
1.07
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.42
0.92
0.33
1.33
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (18)
1.39
0.50
1.33
0.78
1.44
0.22
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.40
0.60
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (19)
0.42
0.63
0.11
0.78
0.70
0.50
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.55
0.83
0.33
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
Ararat-Armenia's squad is €6m more valuable than Ararat's (€8m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia's attack is €3m more valuable than Ararat's (€3m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia and Ararat have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
Ararat-Armenia's defence is €2m more valuable than Ararat's (€4m vs €2m).
Armenia: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Pyunik Yerevan
FC Noah
FC Urartu
Alashkert
West Armenia
Shirak
Van
BKMA