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Ararat-Armenia vs Ararat Result & Analysis

Date: 25/04/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 4-0
Ararat-Armenia
Ararat-Armenia
Vs
79%
14%
7%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ararat
Ararat
Armenia: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Ararat-Armenia’s recent 1-2 loss to Pyunik Yerevan has left them eager to rebound, and the model’s 79% home-win probability reflects that urgency. Their home form shows a prolific 3.2 goals per game while conceding only 0.7, a stark contrast to Ararat’s 0.5 scored and 3.5 conceded on the road. The venue advantage is clear: Ararat-Armenia face a weaker opponent at home, boosting the likelihood of a decisive victory. The model picks a home win, with a 79% chance, a draw 14%, and an away win 7%. The expected total of 3.8 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 2-0, carrying a 10% probability. Suggested selections include Over 1.5 goals at 89.5%, Home win at 79.0%, and Over 2.5 goals at 72.5%. The match is expected to end with Ararat-Armenia dominating, a result that aligns with the model’s predictions.

Results analysis

Ararat-Armenia’s recent form, still rattled by a defeat, saw them rebound with a 4-0 triumph over Ararat, confirming the model’s predicted home win. The model had named a home win as the favourite with a 79% probability, and this call proved correct. The match also delivered the model’s other selections: Over 1.5 goals hit with 89.5% confidence, the home win hit at 79%, and Over 2.5 goals hit at 72.5%. The final score of 4-0 matched the expected home victory, and the most likely total of 3 goals fell within the 3-goal range, underscoring the model’s accurate forecasting.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ararat-Armenia win✓ Hit
79.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
13.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat win✗ Miss
7.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D21W01L41W01L30W22D11D20W40WH·FC 08/11A·ARA21/11A·PYU25/11H·SHI01/12A·ALA07/03H·VAN16/03A·VAN20/03H·ALA06/04A·PYU11/04A·SHI20/04
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.000.972.570.861.501.06
vs Stronger (2)1.003.001.002.001.004.00
vs Similar (9)1.221.111.001.001.331.17
vs Weaker (19)2.470.683.200.701.670.67
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AraratArarat

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D12L02L21W02L12L12L23L02L10WH·SHI09/11H·ARA21/11A·PYU30/11A·VAN07/03H·GAN14/03A·GAN21/03H·VAN04/04H·ALA11/04A·ALA14/04H·PYU18/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.932.431.001.790.883.00
vs Stronger (18)0.782.891.122.120.503.50
vs Similar (12)1.171.750.831.331.502.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%16%21%3%08%117%221%319%415%518%6+
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.5%
Under 1.5
10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
72.5%
Under 2.5
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
51.9%
Under 3.5
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.3%
No
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.0%
3-0
9.7%
2-1
8.4%
3-1
8.1%
4-0 ✓
7.1%
1-1
6.3%
1-0
6.2%
4-1
5.9%
Ararat-Armenia goals ↓
Ararat goals →
01234
02.9%1.4%0.8%0.2%0.0%
16.2%6.3%2.4%0.7%0.1%
210.0%8.4%3.5%1.0%0.2%
39.7%8.1%3.4%1.0%0.2%
47.1%5.9%2.5%0.7%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat-Armenia goals (down), columns = Ararat goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ararat-Armenia
2.22
FC Noah
2.07
Pyunik Yerevan
2.04
Alashkert
1.96
FC Urartu
1.81
Van
1.15
BKMA
0.85
Gandzasar
0.78
Ararat
0.48
Shirak
0.48
Ararat-Armenia is 1.74 points better than Ararat in terms of average points per game (2.22 vs 0.48).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.26
Ararat-Armenia
1.85
FC Urartu
1.59
Alashkert
1.56
Pyunik Yerevan
1.37
BKMA
1.11
Van
1.00
Ararat
0.78
Gandzasar
0.74
Shirak
0.63
Ararat-Armenia is 1.07 goals better than Ararat in terms of goals scored per game (1.85 vs 0.78).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.67
FC Noah
0.70
Alashkert
0.85
Ararat-Armenia
0.93
FC Urartu
0.96
Van
1.48
Gandzasar
1.52
BKMA
1.56
Shirak
1.89
Ararat
2.33
Ararat-Armenia is 1.41 goals better than Ararat in terms of goals conceded per game (0.93 vs 2.33).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W01L11D00D20W01L00D10W20WH·FC 08/11A·ARA21/11A·PYU25/11H·SHI01/12A·ALA07/03H·VAN16/03A·VAN20/03H·ALA06/04A·PYU11/04A·SHI20/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.431.070.500.560.38
vs Stronger (2)1.001.501.001.001.002.00
vs Similar (9)0.560.440.670.330.500.50
vs Weaker (19)0.890.321.200.500.560.11
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AraratArarat

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L00D00D00D12L11D13L01L00DH·SHI09/11H·ARA21/11A·PYU30/11A·VAN07/03H·GAN14/03A·GAN21/03H·VAN04/04H·ALA11/04A·ALA14/04H·PYU18/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.930.360.930.500.94
vs Stronger (18)0.331.000.381.120.300.90
vs Similar (12)0.580.830.330.670.831.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D00D30W01L10W21W11D10W20WH·FC 08/11A·ARA21/11A·PYU25/11H·SHI01/12A·ALA07/03H·VAN16/03A·VAN20/03H·ALA06/04A·PYU11/04A·SHI20/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.531.500.361.000.69
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.001.000.002.00
vs Similar (9)0.670.670.330.670.830.67
vs Weaker (19)1.630.372.000.201.220.56
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AraratArarat

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D02L21W02L00D01L10W01L10WH·SHI09/11H·ARA21/11A·PYU30/11A·VAN07/03H·GAN14/03A·GAN21/03H·VAN04/04H·ALA11/04A·ALA14/04H·PYU18/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.500.640.860.382.06
vs Stronger (18)0.441.890.751.000.202.60
vs Similar (12)0.580.920.500.670.671.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.589.5%-------✓ Hit
Home win79.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.572.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
Ararat-Armenia's squad is €6m more valuable than Ararat's (€8m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia's attack is €3m more valuable than Ararat's (€3m vs €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia and Ararat have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
Ararat-Armenia's defence is €2m more valuable than Ararat's (€4m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
7
ARA wins
1
Draws
0
ARA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ararat-Armenia vs Ararat · H/A from ARA
DateH/AGameScore
21/11/25AArarat Vs ARA1-2
30/08/25HARA Vs Ararat4-2
28/05/25HARA Vs Ararat6-0
10/11/24AArarat Vs ARA0-0
18/10/24HARA Vs Ararat3-2
12/04/24HARA Vs Ararat2-1
05/12/23AArarat Vs ARA0-1
29/09/23HARA Vs Ararat2-1

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/04/26AShirak Vs ARA0-4
11/04/26APyunik Yerevan Vs ARA0-2
06/04/26HARA Vs Alashkert1-1
20/03/26AVan Vs ARA2-2
16/03/26HARA Vs Van3-0
07/03/26AAlashkert Vs ARA1-0
01/12/25HARA Vs Shirak4-1
25/11/25APyunik Yerevan Vs ARA1-0
21/11/25AArarat Vs ARA1-2
08/11/25HARA Vs FC Urartu1-1

AraratArarat

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26HARA Vs Pyunik Yerevan1-0
14/04/26AAlashkert Vs ARA2-0
11/04/26HARA Vs Alashkert2-3
04/04/26HARA Vs Van1-2
21/03/26AGandzasar Vs ARA2-1
14/03/26HARA Vs Gandzasar0-2
07/03/26AVan Vs ARA1-2
30/11/25APyunik Yerevan Vs ARA2-0
21/11/25HARA Vs Ararat-Armenia1-2
09/11/25HARA Vs Shirak0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ararat-Armenia
Ararat-Armenia
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDWW2.02
HomeWDWWD2.08
AwayLLDWW1.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%62%58%
AVG goals3.083.292.88
Over 1.5 %82%88%77%
Over 2.5 %68%71%65%
Over 3.5 %36%38%35%
Scored2.082.331.85
Conceded1.000.961.04
BTTS54%58%50%
Clean Sheet38%38%38%
Corners---
Cards---
Ararat
Ararat
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW0.70
HomeLLLLW0.72
AwayLLWLL0.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%16%20%
AVG goals3.082.683.48
Over 1.5 %84%76%92%
Over 2.5 %62%56%68%
Over 3.5 %32%24%40%
Scored0.920.960.88
Conceded2.161.722.60
BTTS50%56%44%
Clean Sheet10%12%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia2760
67%
2.2
5025+25
2.8
70%
56%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3241.90.9
-
2FC NoahFC Noah2756
59%
2.1
6119+42
3.0
81%
56%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5342.30.7
-
3Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan2755
63%
2.0
3718+19
2.0
63%
37%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.40.7
-
4AlashkertAlashkert2753
59%
2.0
4223+19
2.4
74%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3121.60.9
-
5FC UrartuFC Urartu2749
52%
1.8
4326+17
2.6
67%
41%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.0
-
6VanVan2731
33%
1.1
2740-13
2.5
67%
56%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.5
-
7BKMABKMA2723
15%
0.9
3042-12
2.7
81%
52%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.11.6
-
8GandzasarGandzasar2721
19%
0.8
2041-21
2.3
59%
33%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.71.5
-
9ShirakShirak2713
7%
0.5
1751-34
2.5
67%
44%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.61.9
-
10AraratArarat2713
11%
0.5
2163-42
3.1
81%
52%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0120.82.3
-
Armenia: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →

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