Ararat-Armenia’s recent 1-2 loss to Pyunik Yerevan has left them eager to rebound, and the model’s 79% home-win probability reflects that urgency. Their home form shows a prolific 3.2 goals per game while conceding only 0.7, a stark contrast to Ararat’s 0.5 scored and 3.5 conceded on the road. The venue advantage is clear: Ararat-Armenia face a weaker opponent at home, boosting the likelihood of a decisive victory. The model picks a home win, with a 79% chance, a draw 14%, and an away win 7%. The expected total of 3.8 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 2-0, carrying a 10% probability. Suggested selections include Over 1.5 goals at 89.5%, Home win at 79.0%, and Over 2.5 goals at 72.5%. The match is expected to end with Ararat-Armenia dominating, a result that aligns with the model’s predictions.
Results analysis
Ararat-Armenia’s recent form, still rattled by a defeat, saw them rebound with a 4-0 triumph over Ararat, confirming the model’s predicted home win. The model had named a home win as the favourite with a 79% probability, and this call proved correct. The match also delivered the model’s other selections: Over 1.5 goals hit with 89.5% confidence, the home win hit at 79%, and Over 2.5 goals hit at 72.5%. The final score of 4-0 matched the expected home victory, and the most likely total of 3 goals fell within the 3-goal range, underscoring the model’s accurate forecasting.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ararat-Armenia win✓ Hit
79.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
13.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat win✗ Miss
7.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ararat-Armenia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
0.97
2.57
0.86
1.50
1.06
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (9)
1.22
1.11
1.00
1.00
1.33
1.17
vs Weaker (19)
2.47
0.68
3.20
0.70
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
2.43
1.00
1.79
0.88
3.00
vs Stronger (18)
0.78
2.89
1.12
2.12
0.50
3.50
vs Similar (12)
1.17
1.75
0.83
1.33
1.50
2.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.5%
Under 1.5
10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
72.5%
Under 2.5
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
51.9%
Under 3.5
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.3%
No
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.0%
3-0
9.7%
2-1
8.4%
3-1
8.1%
4-0 ✓
7.1%
1-1
6.3%
1-0
6.2%
4-1
5.9%
Ararat-Armenia goals ↓
Ararat goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.9%
1.4%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
1
6.2%
6.3%
2.4%
0.7%
0.1%
2
10.0%
8.4%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
3
9.7%
8.1%
3.4%
1.0%
0.2%
4
7.1%
5.9%
2.5%
0.7%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat-Armenia goals (down), columns = Ararat goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ararat-Armenia
2.22
FC Noah
2.07
Pyunik Yerevan
2.04
Alashkert
1.96
FC Urartu
1.81
Van
1.15
BKMA
0.85
Gandzasar
0.78
Ararat
0.48
Shirak
0.48
Ararat-Armenia is 1.74 points better than Ararat in terms of average points per game (2.22 vs 0.48).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.26
Ararat-Armenia
1.85
FC Urartu
1.59
Alashkert
1.56
Pyunik Yerevan
1.37
BKMA
1.11
Van
1.00
Ararat
0.78
Gandzasar
0.74
Shirak
0.63
Ararat-Armenia is 1.07 goals better than Ararat in terms of goals scored per game (1.85 vs 0.78).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.67
FC Noah
0.70
Alashkert
0.85
Ararat-Armenia
0.93
FC Urartu
0.96
Van
1.48
Gandzasar
1.52
BKMA
1.56
Shirak
1.89
Ararat
2.33
Ararat-Armenia is 1.41 goals better than Ararat in terms of goals conceded per game (0.93 vs 2.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ararat-Armenia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
1.07
0.50
0.56
0.38
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.44
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (19)
0.89
0.32
1.20
0.50
0.56
0.11
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.93
0.36
0.93
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (18)
0.33
1.00
0.38
1.12
0.30
0.90
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.83
0.33
0.67
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ararat-Armenia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.53
1.50
0.36
1.00
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (19)
1.63
0.37
2.00
0.20
1.22
0.56
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.50
0.64
0.86
0.38
2.06
vs Stronger (18)
0.44
1.89
0.75
1.00
0.20
2.60
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.92
0.50
0.67
0.67
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
Ararat-Armenia's squad is €6m more valuable than Ararat's (€8m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia's attack is €3m more valuable than Ararat's (€3m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia and Ararat have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
Ararat-Armenia's defence is €2m more valuable than Ararat's (€4m vs €2m).
Armenia: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →