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Ararat-Armenia vs FC Noah Result & Analysis

Date: 10/05/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 0-4
Ararat-Armenia
Ararat-Armenia
Vs
39%
28%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Noah
FC Noah
Armenia: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Player market rates14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Ararat-Armenia win✗ Miss
39.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Noah win✓ Hit
32.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W01L30W22D11D20W40W40W20W10WH·SHI01/12A·ALA07/03H·VAN16/03A·VAN20/03H·ALA06/04A·PYU11/04A·SHI20/04H·ARA25/04A·FC 03/05H·PYU06/05
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.830.932.290.791.441.06
vs Stronger (2)1.003.001.002.001.004.00
vs Similar (11)1.270.911.000.751.431.00
vs Weaker (17)2.290.713.000.671.500.75
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC NoahFC Noah

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L20W20W30W20W30W20W11D00D41WA·AZ 26/02A·BKM08/03A·SHI16/03H·SHI22/03H·BKM05/04A·GAN10/04H·VAN20/04A·ALA25/04H·PYU03/05A·GAN06/05
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.530.931.690.881.361.00
vs Stronger (3)0.332.001.000.000.003.00
vs Similar (12)1.251.001.381.001.001.00
vs Weaker (15)2.000.672.140.861.880.50
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.1%
Under 1.5
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.3%
Under 2.5
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.3%
Under 3.5
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.7%
No
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
2-1
8.7%
1-0
8.4%
0-0
8.0%
1-2
7.8%
0-1
7.4%
2-0
6.9%
2-2
5.5%
Ararat-Armenia goals ↓
FC Noah goals →
01234
08.0%7.4%5.5%2.3%0.7%
18.4%13%7.8%3.3%1.0%
26.9%8.7%5.5%2.3%0.7%
33.2%4.1%2.6%1.1%0.3%
41.1%1.5%0.9%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat-Armenia goals (down), columns = FC Noah goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ararat-Armenia
2.22
FC Noah
2.07
Pyunik Yerevan
2.04
Alashkert
1.96
FC Urartu
1.81
Van
1.15
BKMA
0.85
Gandzasar
0.78
Ararat
0.48
Shirak
0.48
Ararat-Armenia is 0.15 points better than FC Noah in terms of average points per game (2.22 vs 2.07).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.26
Ararat-Armenia
1.85
FC Urartu
1.59
Alashkert
1.56
Pyunik Yerevan
1.37
BKMA
1.11
Van
1.00
Ararat
0.78
Gandzasar
0.74
Shirak
0.63
Ararat-Armenia is 0.41 goals worse than FC Noah in terms of goals scored per game (1.85 vs 2.26).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.67
FC Noah
0.70
Alashkert
0.85
Ararat-Armenia
0.93
FC Urartu
0.96
Van
1.48
Gandzasar
1.52
BKMA
1.56
Shirak
1.89
Ararat
2.33
Ararat-Armenia is 0.22 goals worse than FC Noah in terms of goals conceded per game (0.93 vs 0.70).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D20W01L00D10W20W20W00D10WH·SHI01/12A·ALA07/03H·VAN16/03A·VAN20/03H·ALA06/04A·PYU11/04A·SHI20/04H·ARA25/04A·FC 03/05H·PYU06/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.401.000.430.500.38
vs Stronger (2)1.001.501.001.001.002.00
vs Similar (11)0.550.360.750.250.430.43
vs Weaker (17)0.820.291.110.440.500.12
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC NoahFC Noah

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W10W20W10W10W10W00D00D10WA·AZ 26/02A·BKM08/03A·SHI16/03H·SHI22/03H·BKM05/04A·GAN10/04H·VAN20/04A·ALA25/04H·PYU03/05A·GAN06/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.530.810.500.430.57
vs Stronger (3)0.001.000.000.000.001.50
vs Similar (12)0.500.580.620.500.250.75
vs Weaker (15)0.870.401.140.570.620.25
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W01L10W21W11D10W20W20W20W00DH·SHI01/12A·ALA07/03H·VAN16/03A·VAN20/03H·ALA06/04A·PYU11/04A·SHI20/04H·ARA25/04A·FC 03/05H·PYU06/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.531.290.360.940.69
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.001.000.002.00
vs Similar (11)0.730.550.250.501.000.57
vs Weaker (17)1.470.411.890.221.000.62
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC NoahFC Noah

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L10W10W10W10W20W10W11D00D31WA·AZ 26/02A·BKM08/03A·SHI16/03H·SHI22/03H·BKM05/04A·GAN10/04H·VAN20/04A·ALA25/04H·PYU03/05A·GAN06/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.400.880.380.930.43
vs Stronger (3)0.331.001.000.000.001.50
vs Similar (12)0.750.420.750.500.750.25
vs Weaker (15)1.130.271.000.291.250.25
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.571.7%-------✗ Miss

ðŸŽ― 13. Player market rates

FC Noah
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nardin Mulahusejnović62%
Matheus AiÃĄs20%
Alen Grgić17%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan14%
HÃĐlder Ferreira10%
Marin JakoliÅĄ0%
Gustavo SangarÃĐ0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Yan Eteki0%
Guðmundur ÞÃģrarinsson0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
NathanaÃŦl Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
David Sualehe30%
Gustavo SangarÃĐ22%
Imran Oulad Omar20%
HÃĐlder Ferreira20%
Sergey Muradyan20%
Alen Grgić17%
Marin JakoliÅĄ12%
Guðmundur ÞÃģrarinsson12%
NathanaÃŦl Saintini12%
Nardin Mulahusejnović12%
Yan Eteki10%
Eric Boakye10%
Matheus AiÃĄs10%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
HÃĐlder Ferreira20%
Guðmundur ÞÃģrarinsson12%
Nardin Mulahusejnović12%
Takuto Oshima11%
David Sualehe10%
Matheus AiÃĄs10%
Sergey Muradyan10%
Marin JakoliÅĄ0%
Alen Grgić0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo SangarÃĐ0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Yan Eteki0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
NathanaÃŦl Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nardin Mulahusejnović38%
Imran Oulad Omar20%
HÃĐlder Ferreira10%
Matheus AiÃĄs10%
Marin JakoliÅĄ0%
Alen Grgić0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo SangarÃĐ0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Yan Eteki0%
Guðmundur ÞÃģrarinsson0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
NathanaÃŦl Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
Ararat-Armenia's squad is €4m less valuable than FC Noah's (€8m vs €12m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia's attack is €2m less valuable than FC Noah's (€3m vs €5m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia's midfield is €2m less valuable than FC Noah's (€2m vs €3m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
Ararat-Armenia and FC Noah have a similar defence value (both €4m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
ARA wins
1
Draws
6
FN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ararat-Armenia vs FC Noah · H/A from ARA
DateH/AGameScore
01/11/25AFC Noah Vs ARA1-2
20/09/25HARA Vs FC Noah2-2
24/05/25AFC Noah Vs ARA2-0
04/12/24AFC Noah Vs ARA2-1
28/10/24HARA Vs FC Noah0-1
16/05/24AFC Noah Vs ARA2-1
15/03/24HARA Vs FC Noah0-1
07/11/23AFC Noah Vs ARA1-0

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/05/26HARA Vs Pyunik Yerevan1-0
03/05/26AFC Urartu Vs ARA0-2
25/04/26HARA Vs Ararat4-0
20/04/26AShirak Vs ARA0-4
11/04/26APyunik Yerevan Vs ARA0-2
06/04/26HARA Vs Alashkert1-1
20/03/26AVan Vs ARA2-2
16/03/26HARA Vs Van3-0
07/03/26AAlashkert Vs ARA1-0
01/12/25HARA Vs Shirak4-1

FC NoahFC Noah

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/05/26AGandzasar Vs FN1-4
03/05/26HFN Vs Pyunik Yerevan0-0
25/04/26AAlashkert Vs FN1-1
20/04/26HFN Vs Van2-0
10/04/26AGandzasar Vs FN0-3
05/04/26HFN Vs BKMA2-0
22/03/26HFN Vs Shirak3-0
16/03/26AShirak Vs FN0-2
08/03/26ABKMA Vs FN0-2
26/02/26AAZ Alkmaar Vs FN4-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ararat-Armenia
Ararat-Armenia
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW2.08
HomeWWDWW2.21
AwayLDWWW1.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%67%58%
AVG goals3.043.252.85
Over 1.5 %80%83%77%
Over 2.5 %66%71%62%
Over 3.5 %36%38%35%
Scored2.122.421.85
Conceded0.920.831.00
BTTS50%54%46%
Clean Sheet42%42%42%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Noah
FC Noah
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDDW1.90
HomeWWWWD2.26
AwayWWWDW1.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%70%35%
AVG goals2.862.673.09
Over 1.5 %80%74%87%
Over 2.5 %56%59%52%
Over 3.5 %32%26%39%
Scored1.881.961.78
Conceded0.980.701.30
BTTS50%44%57%
Clean Sheet42%56%26%
Corners6.506.007.00
Cards4.584.005.17

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia2760
67%
2.2
5025+25
2.8
70%
56%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3241.90.9
-
2FC NoahFC Noah2756
59%
2.1
6119+42
3.0
81%
56%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5342.30.7
-
3Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan2755
63%
2.0
3718+19
2.0
63%
37%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.40.7
-
4AlashkertAlashkert2753
59%
2.0
4223+19
2.4
74%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3121.60.9
-
5FC UrartuFC Urartu2749
52%
1.8
4326+17
2.6
67%
41%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.0
-
6VanVan2731
33%
1.1
2740-13
2.5
67%
56%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.5
-
7BKMABKMA2723
15%
0.9
3042-12
2.7
81%
52%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.11.6
-
8GandzasarGandzasar2721
19%
0.8
2041-21
2.3
59%
33%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.71.5
-
9ShirakShirak2713
7%
0.5
1751-34
2.5
67%
44%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.61.9
-
10AraratArarat2713
11%
0.5
2163-42
3.1
81%
52%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0120.82.3
-
Armenia: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →

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