Ararat-Armenia’s home form has been modest, averaging just over a goal a game and conceding the same, while FC Noah, on the road, has been a prolific attack, scoring more than two per match and keeping opponents to less than a goal. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 44% chance, and a draw and home win both at 28%. The expected total goals hover at 2.7, but the most likely total is two, with a 26% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.4% chance. The match is expected to be tight: the home side will likely score around 1.1 goals and concede about 1.1, while the visitors should net roughly 2.2 and allow only 0.6. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.9%), Under 5.5 (94.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.4%), Home under 2.5 goals (88.8%), Away +2 handicap (88.2%) and Under 4.5 (86.8%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ararat-Armenia win
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Noah win
44.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ararat-Armenia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.97
1.73
0.73
1.67
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.13
1.13
1.14
1.14
1.12
1.12
vs Weaker (15)
2.27
0.80
2.25
0.38
2.29
1.29
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Noah
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
0.97
2.27
1.00
1.87
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (10)
1.70
1.00
1.20
1.40
2.20
0.60
vs Weaker (17)
2.59
0.76
3.00
0.89
2.12
0.62
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.2%
Under 1.5
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.1%
Under 2.5
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.2%
Under 3.5
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
0-1
9.5%
1-2
9.2%
0-0
8.4%
0-2
8.1%
2-1
6.9%
1-0
6.9%
2-2
5.2%
Ararat-Armenia goals ↓
FC Noah goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
9.5%
8.1%
4.0%
1.5%
1
6.9%
13%
9.2%
4.6%
1.7%
2
4.6%
6.9%
5.2%
2.6%
1.0%
3
1.7%
2.6%
2.0%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat-Armenia goals (down), columns = FC Noah goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Noah
3.00
Pyunik Yerevan
2.50
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.17
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.40
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Gandzasar
0.60
Syunik
0.20
Van
0.17
Ararat-Armenia is 1.00 points worse than FC Noah in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 3.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.60
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.33
Pyunik Yerevan
2.25
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.60
Gandzasar
1.20
BKMA
0.80
Syunik
0.60
Ararat
0.60
Van
0.33
Ararat-Armenia is 0.60 goals worse than FC Noah in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 2.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alashkert
0.33
FC Noah
0.60
Pyunik Yerevan
0.75
FC Urartu
1.00
Sardarapat
1.00
Shirak
1.00
BKMA
1.20
Ararat-Armenia
1.40
Ararat
2.40
Gandzasar
2.40
Syunik
2.60
Van
3.00
Ararat-Armenia is 0.80 goals worse than FC Noah in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 0.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ararat-Armenia or Draw
55.5%
Avg Implied -
27%
28%
44%
covers Ararat-Armenia + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia or FC Noah
71.9%
Avg Implied -
27%
28%
44%
covers Ararat-Armenia + FC Noah
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Noah
72.6%
Avg Implied -
27%
28%
44%
covers Draw + FC Noah
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5
Over
67.8%
Under
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5
Over
31.3%
Under
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 0.5
Over
77.7%
Under
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5
Over
44.3%
Under
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5
Over
19.2%
Under
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 3.5
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ararat-Armenia, so a minus line means Ararat-Armenia give that many goals of a start and FC Noah receive them. At -1, Ararat-Armenia must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ararat-Armenia win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ararat-Armenia)
Ararat-Armenia -2
3.5%
Draw -2
7.8%
FC Noah +2
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ararat-Armenia)
Ararat-Armenia -1
11.3%
Draw -1
16.1%
FC Noah +1
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ararat-Armenia)
Ararat-Armenia +1
55.5%
Draw +1
21.7%
FC Noah -1
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ararat-Armenia)
Ararat-Armenia +2
77.2%
Draw +2
13.8%
FC Noah -2
9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ararat-Armenia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.80
0.47
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.73
0.71
0.71
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (15)
0.80
0.33
0.88
0.25
0.71
0.43
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Noah
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.50
1.20
0.67
0.67
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.60
0.60
1.00
1.00
0.20
vs Weaker (17)
1.18
0.35
1.67
0.56
0.62
0.12
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ararat-Armenia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.43
0.93
0.27
1.13
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.40
0.43
0.43
0.75
0.38
vs Weaker (15)
1.47
0.47
1.38
0.12
1.57
0.86
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Noah
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.47
1.07
0.33
1.20
0.60
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.40
0.60
0.40
1.20
0.40
vs Weaker (17)
1.41
0.41
1.33
0.33
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Noah · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nardin Mulahusejnović62%
Matheus Aiás20%
Alen Grgić17%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan14%
Hélder Ferreira10%
Marin Jakoliš0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Yan Eteki0%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Nathanaël Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
David Sualehe30%
Gustavo Sangaré22%
Imran Oulad Omar20%
Hélder Ferreira20%
Sergey Muradyan20%
Alen Grgić17%
Marin Jakoliš12%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson12%
Nathanaël Saintini12%
Nardin Mulahusejnović12%
Yan Eteki10%
Eric Boakye10%
Matheus Aiás10%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Hélder Ferreira20%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson12%
Nardin Mulahusejnović12%
Takuto Oshima11%
David Sualehe10%
Matheus Aiás10%
Sergey Muradyan10%
Marin Jakoliš0%
Alen Grgić0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Yan Eteki0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Nathanaël Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nardin Mulahusejnović38%
Imran Oulad Omar20%
Hélder Ferreira10%
Matheus Aiás10%
Marin Jakoliš0%
Alen Grgić0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Yan Eteki0%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Nathanaël Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
SAR (23)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
Ararat-Armenia's squad is €4m less valuable than FC Noah's (€8m vs €12m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia's attack is €2m less valuable than FC Noah's (€3m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
VAN (3)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia's midfield is €2m less valuable than FC Noah's (€2m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
SAR (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia and FC Noah have a similar defence value (both €4m).
Armenia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Alashkert
Sardarapat
Pyunik Yerevan
FC Urartu
Shirak
BKMA
Gandzasar
Ararat
Syunik
Van