Ararat-Armenia hosts FC Urartu in a finely balanced match, with the home side's recent 3-game winning run against the away side a major storyline. Ararat-Armenia's home win probability stands at 40%, while FC Urartu's away win probability is 30%, with a 30% chance of a draw. The model predicts a home win as the most likely outcome. The expected total number of goals is 2.4, with the most likely total number of goals being 2.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 14.2%. Ararat-Armenia has been scoring 1.17 goals on average at home, while conceding 1.67 goals. Against a similar-strength opponent, FC Urartu scores 0.8 goals on average away from home, while conceding 1.6 goals.
The model suggests two selections: Under 3.5 (77.4%) and Over 1.5 (70.9%). Ararat-Armenia has a 40% chance of winning, a 30% chance of drawing, and a 30% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The win extends Ararat-Armenia's run to four matches, as they edged out FC Urartu 2-1 at home. The final scoreline saw the home side come out on top, mirroring the model's call for a home win, which it correctly predicted with a 40% pre-match probability. The model's selection was correct, as it had predicted the favoured outcome.
The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 77.4%, while Over 1.5 goals also came in, with a probability of 70.9%. The model's most likely score was a 1-1 draw, but this did not materialize. The expected total goals were 2.4, with the most likely total being 2 goals.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ararat-Armenia win✓ Hit
40.0%
Avg Implied 44.8% · @ 2.01
Edge
-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.07
Dafabet
2.06
888Sport
2.05
William Hil
2.05
BetVictor
2.05
Draw✗ Miss
29.9%
Avg Implied 27.3% · @ 3.29
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Betfair
3.40
Dafabet
3.40
Betano
3.35
FC Urartu win✗ Miss
30.1%
Avg Implied 27.8% · @ 3.24
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.40
Dafabet
3.35
Bet365
3.30
Superbet
3.30
888Sport
3.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ararat-Armenia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.10
1.93
1.07
1.93
1.13
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.45
1.27
1.20
1.60
1.67
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
2.28
0.94
2.44
0.67
2.11
1.22
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Urartu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.13
1.93
1.47
1.13
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.11
1.72
1.09
1.91
1.14
1.43
vs Weaker (12)
2.17
0.25
4.25
0.25
1.12
0.25
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.9%
@ 1.26-1.9%
Under 1.5
29.1%
@ 3.37+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.26
888Sport
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Under
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.45
888Sport
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.34
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.6%
@ 1.85-6.1%
Under 2.5
56.4%
@ 1.82+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.90
Pinnacle
1.87
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Under
SBO
1.88
888Sport
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Bet365
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.6%
@ 3.11-6.8%
Under 3.5
77.4%
@ 1.30+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.25
Betfair
3.25
888Sport
3.20
Unibet
3.05
1xBet
3.05
Under
Betfair
1.33
888Sport
1.30
Superbet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.2%
@ 1.71-3.0%
No
49.8%
@ 1.95+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.75
888Sport
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
No
Betfair
2.05
Superbet
2.02
888Sport
1.95
1xBet
1.95
William Hil
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 6.01+7.1%
1-0
10.4%@ 7.04+4.3%
0-0
10.2%@ 9.54+5.7%
0-1
8.5%@ 9.36+4.0%
2-1 ✓
8.5%@ 7.88+3.0%
2-0
7.7%@ 9.03+2.9%
1-2
7.2%@ 10.79+3.2%
0-2
5.5%@ 16.04+2.8%
Ararat-Armenia goals ↓
FC Urartu goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
8.5%
5.5%
2.0%
0.6%
1
10%
14%
7.2%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.7%
8.5%
4.7%
1.7%
0.5%
3
3.4%
3.7%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.1%
1.2%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat-Armenia goals (down), columns = FC Urartu goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Noah
3.00
Pyunik Yerevan
2.50
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.17
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.40
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Gandzasar
0.60
Syunik
0.20
Van
0.17
Ararat-Armenia is 0.40 points better than FC Urartu in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.60
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.33
Pyunik Yerevan
2.25
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.60
Gandzasar
1.20
BKMA
0.80
Syunik
0.60
Ararat
0.60
Van
0.33
Ararat-Armenia is 0.40 goals better than FC Urartu in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alashkert
0.33
FC Noah
0.60
Pyunik Yerevan
0.75
FC Urartu
1.00
Sardarapat
1.00
Shirak
1.00
BKMA
1.20
Ararat-Armenia
1.40
Ararat
2.40
Gandzasar
2.40
Syunik
2.60
Van
3.00
Ararat-Armenia is 0.40 goals worse than FC Urartu in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ararat-Armenia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
0.93
0.60
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.64
0.80
0.80
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (18)
0.83
0.39
1.00
0.44
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Urartu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.37
0.80
0.40
0.40
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.61
0.45
0.55
0.43
0.71
vs Weaker (12)
0.83
0.00
1.75
0.00
0.38
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ararat-Armenia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.60
1.00
0.47
1.33
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.64
0.40
0.80
1.17
0.50
vs Weaker (18)
1.44
0.56
1.44
0.22
1.44
0.89
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Urartu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.77
1.13
1.07
0.73
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.67
1.11
0.64
1.36
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (12)
1.33
0.25
2.50
0.25
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
77.4%
1.30
Betfair
1.33
888Sport
1.30
Superbet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.29
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.9%
1.26
Betfair
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.26
888Sport
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
-1.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
SAR (23)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
Ararat-Armenia's squad is €3m more valuable than FC Urartu's (€8m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia and FC Urartu have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
VAN (3)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia's midfield is €1m more valuable than FC Urartu's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
SAR (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia's defence is €1m more valuable than FC Urartu's (€4m vs €2m).
Armenia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Noah
Alashkert
Sardarapat
Pyunik Yerevan
Shirak
BKMA
Gandzasar
Ararat
Syunik
Van