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Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar Result & Analysis

Date: 05/10/2025
Time: 13:00
Final 1-0
Ararat-Armenia
Ararat-Armenia
Vs
80%
14%
6%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Gandzasar
Gandzasar
Armenia: Premier League
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Ararat-Armenia win✓ Hit
80.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
14.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar win✗ Miss
5.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D00D14L12L10W42W32W22D21W22DA·UNI31/07A·VAN04/08A·SPA07/08H·SPA14/08A·SHI24/08H·ARA30/08A·FC 14/09H·FC 20/09H·ALA25/09A·BKM29/09
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.271.102.710.931.881.25
vs Stronger (2)1.003.001.002.001.004.00
vs Similar (10)1.601.401.501.501.671.33
vs Weaker (18)2.780.723.440.562.110.89
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GandzasarGandzasar

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W22D11D01L14L00D11D10W02L01LH·SHI17/05H·BKM26/05H·ARA01/08A·FC 09/08A·FC 17/08A·BKM23/08H·SHI30/08H·VAN12/09A·ALA21/09H·PYU27/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.432.100.602.270.271.93
vs Stronger (10)0.203.200.203.200.203.20
vs Similar (13)0.381.540.501.500.291.57
vs Weaker (7)0.861.571.252.250.330.67
Clean sheet %13% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%4%011%120%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
85.3%
Under 1.5
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
65.0%
Under 2.5
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.0%
Under 3.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.0%
No
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.9%
3-0
11.6%
1-0 ✓
8.9%
2-1
8.3%
4-0
7.8%
3-1
7.5%
1-1
6.8%
4-1
5.1%
Ararat-Armenia goals ↓
Gandzasar goals →
01234
04.1%1.7%0.7%0.2%0.0%
18.9%6.8%2.0%0.4%0.1%
213%8.3%2.7%0.6%0.1%
312%7.5%2.4%0.5%0.1%
47.8%5.1%1.6%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat-Armenia goals (down), columns = Gandzasar goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ararat-Armenia
2.22
FC Noah
2.07
Pyunik Yerevan
2.04
Alashkert
1.96
FC Urartu
1.81
Van
1.15
BKMA
0.85
Gandzasar
0.78
Ararat
0.48
Shirak
0.48
Ararat-Armenia is 1.44 points better than Gandzasar in terms of average points per game (2.22 vs 0.78).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.26
Ararat-Armenia
1.85
FC Urartu
1.59
Alashkert
1.56
Pyunik Yerevan
1.37
BKMA
1.11
Van
1.00
Ararat
0.78
Gandzasar
0.74
Shirak
0.63
Ararat-Armenia is 1.11 goals better than Gandzasar in terms of goals scored per game (1.85 vs 0.74).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.67
FC Noah
0.70
Alashkert
0.85
Ararat-Armenia
0.93
FC Urartu
0.96
Van
1.48
Gandzasar
1.52
BKMA
1.56
Shirak
1.89
Ararat
2.33
Ararat-Armenia is 0.59 goals better than Gandzasar in terms of goals conceded per game (0.93 vs 1.52).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D12L11D00D12L10W11D10W10WA·UNI31/07A·VAN04/08A·SPA07/08H·SPA14/08A·SHI24/08H·ARA30/08A·FC 14/09H·FC 20/09H·ALA25/09A·BKM29/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.601.070.530.870.67
vs Stronger (2)1.001.501.001.001.002.00
vs Similar (11)0.640.730.400.800.830.67
vs Weaker (17)1.180.411.440.330.880.50
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GandzasarGandzasar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D10W00D13L00D10W10W01L00DH·SHI17/05H·BKM26/05H·ARA01/08A·FC 09/08A·FC 17/08A·BKM23/08H·SHI30/08H·VAN12/09A·ALA21/09H·PYU27/09
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.770.400.730.200.80
vs Stronger (10)0.201.200.201.000.201.40
vs Similar (13)0.380.460.500.500.290.43
vs Weaker (7)0.290.710.500.750.000.67
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D02L01L10W30W22D11D11D12LA·UNI31/07A·VAN04/08A·SPA07/08H·SPA14/08A·SHI24/08H·ARA30/08A·FC 14/09H·FC 20/09H·ALA25/09A·BKM29/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.531.470.400.930.67
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.001.000.002.00
vs Similar (11)0.820.640.800.600.830.67
vs Weaker (17)1.590.352.000.221.120.50
Clean sheet %60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GandzasarGandzasar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W22D01L01L01L00D01L00D01L01LH·SHI17/05H·BKM26/05H·ARA01/08A·FC 09/08A·FC 17/08A·BKM23/08H·SHI30/08H·VAN12/09A·ALA21/09H·PYU27/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.131.330.201.530.071.13
vs Stronger (10)0.002.000.002.200.001.80
vs Similar (13)0.001.080.001.000.001.14
vs Weaker (7)0.570.860.751.500.330.00
Clean sheet %23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.3%-------✗ Miss
Home win80.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
Ararat-Armenia's squad is €6m more valuable than Gandzasar's (€8m vs €3m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia's attack is €2m more valuable than Gandzasar's (€3m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia's midfield is €1m more valuable than Gandzasar's (€2m vs €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
Ararat-Armenia's defence is €3m more valuable than Gandzasar's (€4m vs €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
3
ARA wins
0
Draws
0
GAN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar · H/A from ARA
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/25AGandzasar Vs ARA0-4
21/11/24HARA Vs Gandzasar3-0
14/09/24AGandzasar Vs ARA0-3

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/09/25ABKMA Vs ARA2-2
25/09/25HARA Vs Alashkert2-1
20/09/25HARA Vs FC Noah2-2
14/09/25AFC Urartu Vs ARA2-3
30/08/25HARA Vs Ararat4-2
24/08/25AShirak Vs ARA0-1
14/08/25HARA Vs Sparta Praha1-2
07/08/25ASparta Praha Vs ARA4-1
04/08/25AVan Vs ARA0-0
31/07/25AUniversitatea Cluj Vs ARA1-1

GandzasarGandzasar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/09/25HGAN Vs Pyunik Yerevan0-1
21/09/25AAlashkert Vs GAN2-0
12/09/25HGAN Vs Van1-0
30/08/25HGAN Vs Shirak1-1
23/08/25ABKMA Vs GAN0-0
17/08/25AFC Noah Vs GAN4-1
09/08/25AFC Urartu Vs GAN1-0
01/08/25HGAN Vs Ararat1-1
26/05/25HGAN Vs BKMA2-2
17/05/25HGAN Vs Shirak1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ararat-Armenia
Ararat-Armenia
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWD2.00
HomeDLWDW2.04
AwayDLWWD1.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%62%58%
AVG goals3.383.463.31
Over 1.5 %88%88%88%
Over 2.5 %76%75%77%
Over 3.5 %46%50%42%
Scored2.302.462.15
Conceded1.081.001.15
BTTS56%58%54%
Clean Sheet38%33%42%
Corners8.5010.007.00
Cards6.506.007.00
Gandzasar
Gandzasar
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWLL1.00
HomeDDDWL1.15
AwayLLLDL0.83
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%35%21%
AVG goals2.782.692.88
Over 1.5 %70%65%75%
Over 2.5 %44%42%46%
Over 3.5 %26%27%25%
Scored1.000.921.08
Conceded1.781.771.79
BTTS36%31%42%
Clean Sheet24%31%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia2760
67%
2.2
5025+25
2.8
70%
56%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3241.90.9
-
2FC NoahFC Noah2756
59%
2.1
6119+42
3.0
81%
56%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5342.30.7
-
3Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan2755
63%
2.0
3718+19
2.0
63%
37%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.40.7
-
4AlashkertAlashkert2753
59%
2.0
4223+19
2.4
74%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3121.60.9
-
5FC UrartuFC Urartu2749
52%
1.8
4326+17
2.6
67%
41%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.0
-
6VanVan2731
33%
1.1
2740-13
2.5
67%
56%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.5
-
7BKMABKMA2723
15%
0.9
3042-12
2.7
81%
52%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.11.6
-
8GandzasarGandzasar2721
19%
0.8
2041-21
2.3
59%
33%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.71.5
-
9ShirakShirak2713
7%
0.5
1751-34
2.5
67%
44%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.61.9
-
10AraratArarat2713
11%
0.5
2163-42
3.1
81%
52%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0120.82.3
-
Armenia: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →

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