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Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar Prediction & Stats

Date: 30/10/2026
Time: 16:00
Ararat-Armenia
Ararat-Armenia
Vs
73%
19%
9%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Gandzasar
Gandzasar
Armenia: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Ararat-Armenia, fresh from a 1-0 victory over Universitatea Craiova, will face Gandzasar on their home turf. The model sees a 73% chance of a home win, 19% for a draw and 8% for an away win, making the home win the clear favourite. Their home form is strong: 2.25 goals scored and only 0.38 conceded against weaker opponents. Gandzasar, playing away against a stronger side, averages only 0.25 goals scored and concedes 2.0. The expected total is 2.9 goals, with the most likely scoreline 2-0 for Ararat-Armenia at 13.7%. The model picks the home win as the most probable outcome. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (99.5%), Under 7.5 (99.0%), Home +2 handicap (97.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (97.0%), Under 6.5 (97.0%), Under 5.5 (92.3%), Home or Draw (91.5%) and Home +1 handicap (91.5%). The probabilities for the main match result are 73% home win, 19% draw, 8% away win.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ararat-Armenia win
72.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
18.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar win
8.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L43W21W21W02L20W11D11D10W12LA·SHA28/07A·GAN01/08H·CEL04/08H·FC 07/08A·CEL11/08H·VAN15/08A·UNI20/08H·SAR23/08H·UNI27/08A·PYU31/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.700.971.730.731.671.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.131.131.141.141.121.12
vs Weaker (15)2.270.802.250.382.291.29
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GandzasarGandzasar

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L14L13L02L01L34L31W01L03L03LH·VAN02/05H·FC 06/05A·ALA09/05H·PYU18/05A·ARA27/05H·ARA01/08H·SYU08/08H·SHI14/08A·ALA21/08H·BKM30/08
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.701.001.590.621.85
vs Stronger (10)0.502.300.672.500.252.00
vs Similar (16)1.001.441.121.000.881.88
vs Weaker (4)1.001.251.331.330.001.00
Clean sheet %17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%014%124%222%316%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.8%
Under 1.5
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.0%
Under 2.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.6%
Under 3.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
44.4%
No
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.7%
1-0
11.3%
3-0
10.3%
2-1
9.1%
1-1
8.9%
3-1
6.9%
0-0
6.2%
4-0
5.8%
Ararat-Armenia goals ↓
Gandzasar goals →
01234
06.2%2.8%1.2%0.3%0.0%
111%8.9%2.7%0.6%0.1%
214%9.1%3.1%0.7%0.1%
310%6.9%2.3%0.5%0.1%
45.8%3.9%1.3%0.3%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat-Armenia goals (down), columns = Gandzasar goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Noah
3.00
Sardarapat
2.50
Pyunik Yerevan
2.20
Alashkert
2.17
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.40
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Gandzasar
0.60
Syunik
0.33
Van
0.17
Ararat-Armenia is 1.40 points better than Gandzasar in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.60).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.60
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.33
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
Pyunik Yerevan
1.80
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.60
Gandzasar
1.20
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Syunik
0.50
Van
0.33
Ararat-Armenia is 0.80 goals better than Gandzasar in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.20).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Alashkert
0.33
Pyunik Yerevan
0.60
FC Noah
0.60
FC Urartu
1.00
Sardarapat
1.00
Shirak
1.00
BKMA
1.20
Ararat-Armenia
1.40
Syunik
2.17
Ararat
2.40
Gandzasar
2.40
Van
3.00
Ararat-Armenia is 1.00 goals better than Gandzasar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 2.40).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ararat-Armenia or Draw
91.4%
Avg Implied -
73%
19%
9%
covers Ararat-Armenia + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia or Gandzasar
81.3%
Avg Implied -
73%
19%
9%
covers Ararat-Armenia + Gandzasar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Gandzasar
27.3%
Avg Implied -
73%
19%
9%
covers Draw + Gandzasar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5
Over
89.6%
Under
10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5
Over
66.0%
Under
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5
Over
39.3%
Under
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 3.5
Over
19.2%
Under
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5
Over
48.7%
Under
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5
Over
14.5%
Under
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 3.5
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Ararat-Armenia, so a minus line means Ararat-Armenia give that many goals of a start and Gandzasar receive them. At -1, Ararat-Armenia must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ararat-Armenia win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ararat-Armenia)
Ararat-Armenia -2
27.7%
Draw -2
22.0%
Gandzasar +2
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ararat-Armenia)
Ararat-Armenia -1
49.7%
Draw -1
23.0%
Gandzasar +1
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ararat-Armenia)
Ararat-Armenia +1
91.4%
Draw +1
6.2%
Gandzasar -1
2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ararat-Armenia)
Ararat-Armenia +2
97.6%
Draw +2
1.9%
Gandzasar -2
0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L21W11D11D00D00D11D11D00D02LA·SHA28/07A·GAN01/08H·CEL04/08H·FC 07/08A·CEL11/08H·VAN15/08A·UNI20/08H·SAR23/08H·UNI27/08A·PYU31/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.530.800.470.530.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.530.730.710.710.380.75
vs Weaker (15)0.800.330.880.250.710.43
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GandzasarGandzasar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L02L01L01L12L10W01L01L00DH·VAN02/05H·FC 06/05A·ALA09/05H·PYU18/05A·ARA27/05H·ARA01/08H·SYU08/08H·SHI14/08A·ALA21/08H·BKM30/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.800.470.590.311.08
vs Stronger (10)0.201.100.170.830.251.50
vs Similar (16)0.560.620.750.250.381.00
vs Weaker (4)0.250.750.331.000.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W22D10W10W02L20W00D00D10W10WA·SHA28/07A·GAN01/08H·CEL04/08H·FC 07/08A·CEL11/08H·VAN15/08A·UNI20/08H·SAR23/08H·UNI27/08A·PYU31/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.430.930.271.130.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.600.400.430.430.750.38
vs Weaker (15)1.470.471.380.121.570.86
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GandzasarGandzasar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D13L11D01L00D22D21W00D02L03LH·VAN02/05H·FC 06/05A·ALA09/05H·PYU18/05A·ARA27/05H·ARA01/08H·SYU08/08H·SHI14/08A·ALA21/08H·BKM30/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.900.531.000.310.77
vs Stronger (10)0.301.200.501.670.000.50
vs Similar (16)0.440.810.380.750.500.88
vs Weaker (4)0.750.501.000.330.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Away under 3.5 goals99.5%-------
Under 7.599.0%-------
Home +2 handicap97.6%-------
Under 6.597.0%-------
Away under 2.5 goals97.0%-------
Under 5.592.3%-------
Home or Draw91.4%-------
Home +1 handicap91.4%-------
Home over 0.5 goals89.6%-------
Away under 1.5 goals85.5%-------
Under 4.582.7%-------
Home or Away81.3%-------
Home under 3.5 goals80.8%-------
Over 1.579.8%-------
Home win72.7%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
SAR (23)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
Ararat-Armenia's squad is €6m more valuable than Gandzasar's (€8m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia's attack is €2m more valuable than Gandzasar's (€3m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
VAN (3)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia's midfield is €1m more valuable than Gandzasar's (€2m vs €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
SAR (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia's defence is €3m more valuable than Gandzasar's (€4m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
7
ARA wins
0
Draws
0
GAN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar · H/A from ARA
DateH/AGameScore
01/08/26AGandzasar Vs ARA3-4
27/05/26HARA Vs Gandzasar1-0
19/10/25AGandzasar Vs ARA0-1
05/10/25HARA Vs Gandzasar1-0
25/04/25AGandzasar Vs ARA0-4
21/11/24HARA Vs Gandzasar3-0
14/09/24AGandzasar Vs ARA0-3

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/08/26APyunik Yerevan Vs ARA2-1
27/08/26HARA Vs Universitatea Craiova1-0
23/08/26HARA Vs Sardarapat1-1
20/08/26AUniversitatea Craiova Vs ARA1-1
15/08/26HARA Vs Van2-0
11/08/26ACelje Vs ARA2-0
07/08/26HARA Vs FC Urartu2-1
04/08/26HARA Vs Celje2-1
01/08/26AGandzasar Vs ARA3-4
28/07/26AShamrock Rovers Vs ARA2-1

GandzasarGandzasar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26HGAN Vs BKMA0-3
21/08/26AAlashkert Vs GAN3-0
14/08/26HGAN Vs Shirak0-1
08/08/26HGAN Vs Syunik3-1
01/08/26HGAN Vs Ararat-Armenia3-4
27/05/26AArarat-Armenia Vs GAN1-0
18/05/26HGAN Vs Pyunik Yerevan0-2
09/05/26AAlashkert Vs GAN3-1
06/05/26HGAN Vs FC Noah1-4
02/05/26HGAN Vs Van0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ararat-Armenia
Ararat-Armenia
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDWL2.06
HomeWWWDW2.33
AwayLWLDL1.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%71%54%
AVG goals3.023.082.96
Over 1.5 %80%79%81%
Over 2.5 %60%62%58%
Over 3.5 %36%38%35%
Scored1.982.211.77
Conceded1.040.881.19
BTTS52%54%50%
Clean Sheet38%42%35%
Corners12.003.0016.50
Cards6.00-6.00
Gandzasar
Gandzasar
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 1 Wins / 0 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL0.60
HomeLLWLL0.88
AwayLDLLL0.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %14%23%4%
AVG goals2.602.852.33
Over 1.5 %66%69%62%
Over 2.5 %48%58%38%
Over 3.5 %28%38%17%
Scored0.680.880.46
Conceded1.921.961.88
BTTS38%42%33%
Clean Sheet14%15%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC NoahFC Noah515
100%
3.0
133+10
3.2
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5342.60.6
-
2AlashkertAlashkert613
67%
2.2
142+12
2.7
83%
67%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3122.30.3
-
3Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan511
60%
2.2
93+6
2.4
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.80.6
-
4SardarapatSardarapat410
75%
2.5
104+6
3.5
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.51.0
-
5Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia510
60%
2.0
107+3
3.4
100%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3242.01.4
-
6FC UrartuFC Urartu58
40%
1.6
85+3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.0
-
7ShirakShirak57
40%
1.4
85+3
2.6
40%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.61.0
-
8BKMABKMA54
20%
0.8
46-2
2.0
60%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.81.2
-
9GandzasarGandzasar53
20%
0.6
612-6
3.6
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.22.4
-
10AraratArarat53
20%
0.6
312-9
3.0
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0120.62.4
-
11SyunikSyunik62
0%
0.3
313-10
2.7
83%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1000.52.2
-
12VanVan61
0%
0.2
218-16
3.3
100%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.33.0
-
Armenia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →

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