Ararat-Armenia’s defensive record at home is solid, conceding only 0.33 goals per match against teams of similar strength, while Pyunik Yerevan’s away form shows they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. The model therefore favours a home win, with a 57% chance, a draw at 28%, and an away win at 16%. The expected total is 2.2 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 for Ararat-Armenia, with a 15.2% probability. Suggested picks include Under 11.5 corners at 83.5%, Under 5.5 cards at 81.6%, Under 3.5 goals at 81.0% (hit), Under 10.5 corners at 74.6%, and Over 2.5 cards at 73.1%. Ararat-Armenia are coming off a defeat, whereas Pyunik Yerevan are on a three-game winning streak, adding intrigue to a low-scoring clash.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win for Ararat-Armenia, was denied as the match finished 0-0, a draw that surprised everyone. The model’s call was wrong, with a 57% probability for a home victory. The final score of 0-0 meant the match ended in a stalemate, a result that matched the model’s predicted draw probability of 28%. The suggested pick “Under 3.5” hit, with an 81% chance, and the total goals stayed below the expected 2.2. Ararat-Armenia’s recent form, noted as coming off a defeat, and Pyunik Yerevan’s three-game winning streak, set the stage for an unexpected quiet game.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ararat-Armenia win✗ Miss
56.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan win✗ Miss
15.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ararat-Armenia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.94
0.44
2.12
0.38
1.75
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.33
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
2.70
0.30
2.80
0.40
2.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
62% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik Yerevan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pyunik Yerevan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.19
1.04
1.33
0.67
1.00
1.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.25
1.00
1.00
0.50
3.50
vs Similar (14)
1.21
0.93
1.14
0.57
1.29
1.29
vs Weaker (9)
1.33
0.67
1.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
66.8%
Under 1.5
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.0%
Under 2.5
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.0%
Under 3.5
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
40.8%
No
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.2%
2-0
12.7%
1-1
12.6%
0-0 ✓
11.7%
2-1
8.9%
3-0
6.5%
0-1
6.3%
3-1
4.6%
Ararat-Armenia goals ↓
Pyunik Yerevan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
6.3%
2.6%
0.6%
0.1%
1
15%
13%
4.0%
0.9%
0.2%
2
13%
8.9%
3.1%
0.7%
0.1%
3
6.5%
4.6%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
4
2.5%
1.8%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat-Armenia goals (down), columns = Pyunik Yerevan goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Urartu
2.31
Pyunik Yerevan
2.22
Ararat-Armenia
2.11
Alashkert
1.83
Van
1.11
Ararat
1.06
Shirak
1.00
FC Noah
0.89
BKMA
0.89
Lernayin Artsakh
0.61
Ararat-Armenia is 0.11 points worse than Pyunik Yerevan in terms of average points per game (2.11 vs 2.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.00
Ararat-Armenia
1.94
FC Urartu
1.89
Alashkert
1.61
Van
1.06
BKMA
1.00
FC Noah
0.94
Ararat
0.81
Shirak
0.69
Lernayin Artsakh
0.44
Ararat-Armenia is 0.06 goals worse than Pyunik Yerevan in terms of goals scored per game (1.94 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.64
FC Urartu
0.69
Ararat-Armenia
0.75
Alashkert
1.03
Ararat
1.17
BKMA
1.47
Shirak
1.53
Lernayin Artsakh
1.64
Van
1.64
FC Noah
1.83
Ararat-Armenia is 0.11 goals worse than Pyunik Yerevan in terms of goals conceded per game (0.75 vs 0.64).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ararat-Armenia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.94
0.19
1.00
0.25
0.88
0.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (10)
1.30
0.10
1.40
0.20
1.20
0.00
Clean sheet %
81% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik Yerevan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pyunik Yerevan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.41
0.52
0.60
0.27
0.17
0.83
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.57
0.43
0.43
0.29
0.71
vs Weaker (9)
0.44
0.22
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ararat-Armenia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.25
1.12
0.12
0.88
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (10)
1.40
0.20
1.40
0.20
1.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
75% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik Yerevan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pyunik Yerevan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.78
0.52
0.73
0.40
0.83
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.25
0.00
0.50
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.36
0.71
0.14
1.00
0.57
vs Weaker (9)
0.89
0.44
1.00
0.67
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 11.5 corners
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Pyunik Yerevan
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yusuf Otubanjo33%
Aras Özbiliz33%
Artak Dashyan33%
Luka Juričić20%
Juninho17%
Eugeniu Cociuc17%
Alexander González0%
Nikita Baranov0%
Stefan Spirovski0%
Roman Karasyuk0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Mikhail Kovalenko0%
David Yurchenko0%
Alexander Karapetyan0%
Hovhannes Harutyunyan0%
Sergiy Vakulenko0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Dame Diop0%
Anton Bratkov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aleksandar Miljković60%
Hovhannes Harutyunyan33%
Anton Bratkov33%
Mikhail Kovalenko25%
Sergiy Vakulenko25%
Alexander Karapetyan20%
Luka Juričić20%
David Yurchenko17%
Eugeniu Cociuc17%
Alexander González0%
Yusuf Otubanjo0%
Juninho0%
Nikita Baranov0%
Stefan Spirovski0%
Roman Karasyuk0%
Aras Özbiliz0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Dame Diop0%
Artak Dashyan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexander González33%
Hovhannes Harutyunyan17%
Yusuf Otubanjo0%
Juninho0%
Nikita Baranov0%
Stefan Spirovski0%
Roman Karasyuk0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Mikhail Kovalenko0%
David Yurchenko0%
Eugeniu Cociuc0%
Aras Özbiliz0%
Alexander Karapetyan0%
Sergiy Vakulenko0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Dame Diop0%
Artak Dashyan0%
Anton Bratkov0%
Luka Juričić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Artak Dashyan67%
Aras Özbiliz33%
Luka Juričić20%
Yusuf Otubanjo17%
Dame Diop17%
Alexander González0%
Juninho0%
Nikita Baranov0%
Stefan Spirovski0%
Roman Karasyuk0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Mikhail Kovalenko0%
David Yurchenko0%
Eugeniu Cociuc0%
Alexander Karapetyan0%
Hovhannes Harutyunyan0%
Sergiy Vakulenko0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Anton Bratkov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
LA (8)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia's squad is €2m more valuable than Pyunik Yerevan's (€8m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia's attack is €1m more valuable than Pyunik Yerevan's (€3m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia and Pyunik Yerevan have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
LA (3)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia's defence is €1m more valuable than Pyunik Yerevan's (€4m vs €2m).
Armenia: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Urartu
Alashkert
Van
Ararat
Shirak
BKMA
FC Noah
Lernayin Artsakh