Ararat-Armenia will face a slight disadvantage as the model favours a Pyunik Yerevan victory, with a 42% chance of winning, a 27% chance of a draw and a 31% chance of a home win. The match is expected to see about 2.9 goals, with the most probable total being two goals. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.6% probability. Ararat-Armenia, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, while Pyunik Yerevan, on the road, averages 1.8 goals scored and only one conceded against comparable opponents. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 80%, Over 1.5 goals at 79.9% (hit), Under 11.5 corners at 74.2% and Under 5.5 cards at 74.1%. The recent form shows Ararat-Armenia coming off a win, whereas Pyunik Yerevan is on a two-game winning run.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, an away win, did not materialise as Pyunik Yerevan fell short, with Ararat-Armenia clinching a 3-1 victory. The model had picked an away win with a 42% probability, but that call was wrong. The final score of 3-1 gave the home side a win, extending their recent form with a victory after a win, draw, draw, win, loss. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, projected at 79.9% and it hit, as the match produced four goals. The prediction model’s favourite was not correct, but the over-goals pick succeeded.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ararat-Armenia win✓ Hit
31.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan win✗ Miss
41.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ararat-Armenia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.03
2.14
1.00
1.88
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.33
1.58
1.60
1.80
1.14
1.43
vs Weaker (18)
2.44
0.67
2.44
0.56
2.44
0.78
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik Yerevan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pyunik Yerevan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
0.83
2.13
0.80
2.20
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (11)
1.91
0.91
2.00
0.83
1.80
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
2.59
0.53
2.50
0.50
2.67
0.56
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.9%
Under 1.5
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.7%
Under 2.5
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.3%
Under 3.5
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.6%
No
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
1-2
9.0%
2-1
7.7%
0-1
7.4%
0-2
6.7%
0-0
6.6%
1-0
6.1%
2-2
6.0%
Ararat-Armenia goals ↓
Pyunik Yerevan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
7.4%
6.7%
3.5%
1.4%
1
6.1%
13%
9.0%
4.7%
1.9%
2
4.9%
7.7%
6.0%
3.2%
1.2%
3
2.2%
3.4%
2.7%
1.4%
0.6%
4
0.7%
1.1%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat-Armenia goals (down), columns = Pyunik Yerevan goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.28
FC Noah
2.22
Ararat-Armenia
2.08
FC Urartu
1.39
Alashkert
1.25
Ararat
1.25
West Armenia
1.03
Shirak
0.92
Van
0.89
BKMA
0.75
Ararat-Armenia is 0.19 points worse than Pyunik Yerevan in terms of average points per game (2.08 vs 2.28).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.33
Ararat-Armenia
2.03
FC Noah
1.92
Alashkert
1.50
FC Urartu
1.36
West Armenia
1.19
Ararat
1.08
Van
0.89
BKMA
0.89
Shirak
0.78
Ararat-Armenia is 0.31 goals worse than Pyunik Yerevan in terms of goals scored per game (2.03 vs 2.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.78
FC Noah
0.92
Ararat-Armenia
0.94
Shirak
1.28
FC Urartu
1.36
Ararat
1.39
Alashkert
1.56
Van
1.86
BKMA
1.86
West Armenia
2.03
Ararat-Armenia is 0.17 goals worse than Pyunik Yerevan in terms of goals conceded per game (0.94 vs 0.78).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ararat-Armenia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.43
1.14
0.21
0.81
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.67
1.40
0.40
0.71
0.86
vs Weaker (18)
0.94
0.28
1.00
0.11
0.89
0.44
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik Yerevan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pyunik Yerevan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.47
1.07
0.40
1.07
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.45
0.83
0.33
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (17)
1.41
0.35
1.38
0.38
1.44
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ararat-Armenia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.60
1.00
0.79
1.06
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.92
0.20
1.40
0.43
0.57
vs Weaker (18)
1.50
0.39
1.44
0.44
1.56
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik Yerevan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pyunik Yerevan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.37
1.07
0.40
1.13
0.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
1.18
0.45
1.17
0.50
1.20
0.40
vs Weaker (17)
1.18
0.18
1.12
0.12
1.22
0.22
Clean sheet %
70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Pyunik Yerevan · 2022/23
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yusuf Otubanjo33%
Aras Özbiliz33%
Artak Dashyan33%
Luka Juričić20%
Juninho17%
Eugeniu Cociuc17%
Alexander González0%
Nikita Baranov0%
Stefan Spirovski0%
Roman Karasyuk0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Mikhail Kovalenko0%
David Yurchenko0%
Alexander Karapetyan0%
Hovhannes Harutyunyan0%
Sergiy Vakulenko0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Dame Diop0%
Anton Bratkov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aleksandar Miljković60%
Hovhannes Harutyunyan33%
Anton Bratkov33%
Mikhail Kovalenko25%
Sergiy Vakulenko25%
Alexander Karapetyan20%
Luka Juričić20%
David Yurchenko17%
Eugeniu Cociuc17%
Alexander González0%
Yusuf Otubanjo0%
Juninho0%
Nikita Baranov0%
Stefan Spirovski0%
Roman Karasyuk0%
Aras Özbiliz0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Dame Diop0%
Artak Dashyan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexander González33%
Hovhannes Harutyunyan17%
Yusuf Otubanjo0%
Juninho0%
Nikita Baranov0%
Stefan Spirovski0%
Roman Karasyuk0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Mikhail Kovalenko0%
David Yurchenko0%
Eugeniu Cociuc0%
Aras Özbiliz0%
Alexander Karapetyan0%
Sergiy Vakulenko0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Dame Diop0%
Artak Dashyan0%
Anton Bratkov0%
Luka Juričić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Artak Dashyan67%
Aras Özbiliz33%
Luka Juričić20%
Yusuf Otubanjo17%
Dame Diop17%
Alexander González0%
Juninho0%
Nikita Baranov0%
Stefan Spirovski0%
Roman Karasyuk0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Mikhail Kovalenko0%
David Yurchenko0%
Eugeniu Cociuc0%
Alexander Karapetyan0%
Hovhannes Harutyunyan0%
Sergiy Vakulenko0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Anton Bratkov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
Ararat-Armenia's squad is €2m more valuable than Pyunik Yerevan's (€8m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia's attack is €1m more valuable than Pyunik Yerevan's (€3m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia and Pyunik Yerevan have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
Ararat-Armenia's defence is €1m more valuable than Pyunik Yerevan's (€4m vs €2m).
Armenia: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Noah
FC Urartu
Alashkert
Ararat
West Armenia
Shirak
Van
BKMA