Ararat-Armenia are clear favourites, the model assigning a 76 % chance of a home win and a 16 % draw, with only 8 % for Syunik. The 3.5 expected total goals and a 22 % probability that the match will finish with three goals set the stage for a high-scoring affair. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 11.1 % chance, reflecting Ararat-Armenia’s strong home form: they average 2.22 goals scored and only 0.44 conceded against weaker opponents, while Syunik, playing away against stronger teams, average 0.67 scored and 2.67 conceded. The model’s picks mirror this imbalance: Away under 3.5 goals99.1 %, Home +2 handicap97.6 %, Under 7.597.5 %, Away under 2.5 goals95.3 %, Under 6.593.7 %, Home over 0.5 goals93.1 %, Home or Draw91.9 %, and Home +1 handicap91.9 %. Both sides have recently drawn, with Ararat-Armenia coming off a 1-1 draw against Sardarapat and Syunik a 1-1 draw against Van, but the venue advantage and form statistics keep the home side firmly ahead.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ararat-Armenia win
77.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
14.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Syunik win
7.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ararat-Armenia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.97
1.73
0.73
1.67
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.13
1.13
1.14
1.14
1.12
1.12
vs Weaker (15)
2.27
0.80
2.25
0.38
2.29
1.29
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Syunik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Syunik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.53
1.20
2.75
1.00
2.39
1.33
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
2.71
1.00
2.50
0.60
2.80
vs Similar (9)
1.78
0.78
2.50
0.50
1.20
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
3.93
0.71
3.50
0.83
4.25
0.62
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.6%
Under 1.5
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
68.9%
Under 2.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
47.5%
Under 3.5
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.1%
No
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.9%
3-0
10.0%
2-1
8.7%
3-1
8.0%
1-0
7.3%
1-1
6.9%
4-0
6.9%
4-1
5.5%
Ararat-Armenia goals ↓
Syunik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.5%
1.7%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
1
7.3%
6.9%
2.5%
0.7%
0.1%
2
11%
8.7%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
3
10%
8.0%
3.2%
0.8%
0.2%
4
6.9%
5.5%
2.2%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat-Armenia goals (down), columns = Syunik goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Noah
3.00
Pyunik Yerevan
2.50
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.17
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.40
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Gandzasar
0.60
Syunik
0.20
Van
0.17
Ararat-Armenia is 1.80 points better than Syunik in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.60
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.33
Pyunik Yerevan
2.25
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.60
Gandzasar
1.20
BKMA
0.80
Syunik
0.60
Ararat
0.60
Van
0.33
Ararat-Armenia is 1.40 goals better than Syunik in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 0.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alashkert
0.33
FC Noah
0.60
Pyunik Yerevan
0.75
FC Urartu
1.00
Sardarapat
1.00
Shirak
1.00
BKMA
1.20
Ararat-Armenia
1.40
Ararat
2.40
Gandzasar
2.40
Syunik
2.60
Van
3.00
Ararat-Armenia is 1.20 goals better than Syunik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 2.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ararat-Armenia or Draw
92.5%
Avg Implied -
78%
15%
8%
covers Ararat-Armenia + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia or Syunik
85.2%
Avg Implied -
78%
15%
8%
covers Ararat-Armenia + Syunik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Syunik
22.4%
Avg Implied -
78%
15%
8%
covers Draw + Syunik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5
Over
93.6%
Under
6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5
Over
76.1%
Under
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5
Over
52.0%
Under
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 3.5
Over
29.8%
Under
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 0.5
Over
54.9%
Under
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 1.5
Over
19.0%
Under
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 2.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ararat-Armenia, so a minus line means Ararat-Armenia give that many goals of a start and Syunik receive them. At -1, Ararat-Armenia must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ararat-Armenia win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ararat-Armenia)
Ararat-Armenia -2
36.5%
Draw -2
21.4%
Syunik +2
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ararat-Armenia)
Ararat-Armenia -1
57.9%
Draw -1
19.8%
Syunik +1
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ararat-Armenia)
Ararat-Armenia +1
92.5%
Draw +1
5.3%
Syunik -1
2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ararat-Armenia)
Ararat-Armenia +2
97.7%
Draw +2
1.8%
Syunik -2
0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ararat-Armenia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.80
0.47
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.73
0.71
0.71
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (15)
0.80
0.33
0.88
0.25
0.71
0.43
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Syunik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Syunik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.47
1.08
0.50
1.22
0.44
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.14
0.50
1.50
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.44
0.75
0.50
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (14)
1.86
0.14
1.50
0.17
2.12
0.12
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.2%
Under 0.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.0%
Under 1.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
26.3%
Under 2.5
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
56.4%
Under
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
26.1%
Under
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 0.5 HT
Over
31.5%
Under
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ararat-Armenia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.43
0.93
0.27
1.13
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.40
0.43
0.43
0.75
0.38
vs Weaker (15)
1.47
0.47
1.38
0.12
1.57
0.86
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Syunik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Syunik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.73
1.67
0.50
1.17
0.89
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.57
0.50
1.00
0.40
1.80
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.33
1.75
0.00
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (14)
2.07
0.57
2.00
0.67
2.12
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.5%
Under 0.5
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.9%
Under 1.5
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
25.1%
Under 2.5
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.3%
Under
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
38.5%
Under
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
14.9%
Under
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 0.5 2H
Over
38.0%
Under
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.9%
Under
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
SAR (23)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
Ararat-Armenia's squad is €7m more valuable than Syunik's (€8m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia's attack is €2m more valuable than Syunik's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
VAN (3)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia's midfield is €1m more valuable than Syunik's (€2m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
SAR (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia's defence is €3m more valuable than Syunik's (€4m vs €0m).
Armenia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Noah
Alashkert
Sardarapat
Pyunik Yerevan
FC Urartu
Shirak
BKMA
Gandzasar
Ararat
Van