PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Ararat-Armenia vs Van Result & Analysis

Date: 10/03/2025
Time: 14:00
Final 1-1
Ararat-Armenia
Ararat-Armenia
Vs
60%
24%
16%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Van
Van
Armenia: Premier League
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Ararat-Armenia win✗ Miss
60.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Van win✗ Miss
16.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W01L42W30W00D30W22D12L12L21WA·SHI22/10H·FC 28/10A·BKM02/11H·WES06/11A·ARA10/11H·GAN21/11A·ALA27/11A·FC 04/12H·FC 25/02A·PYU01/03
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.201.072.151.002.241.12
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.501.751.001.601.861.86
vs Weaker (18)2.670.612.880.622.500.60
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VanVan

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-513L13L05L01L40W31W23L20W10W11DH·PYU06/10A·FC 16/10A·FC 20/10A·PYU28/10H·ARA05/11H·FC 11/11H·BKM22/11A·WES26/11H·SHI02/12H·ALA01/03
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.371.941.500.931.21
vs Stronger (12)0.752.250.862.000.602.60
vs Similar (18)1.940.782.781.111.110.44
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.1%
Under 1.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.7%
Under 2.5
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.4%
Under 3.5
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.7%
No
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.2%
2-0
10.7%
1-0
10.0%
2-1
9.9%
3-0
7.0%
0-0
6.7%
3-1
6.4%
1-2
4.7%
Ararat-Armenia goals ↓
Van goals →
01234
06.7%4.2%2.4%0.7%0.2%
110%11%4.7%1.4%0.3%
211%9.9%4.6%1.4%0.3%
37.0%6.4%3.0%0.9%0.2%
43.4%3.1%1.4%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat-Armenia goals (down), columns = Van goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Noah
2.50
Ararat-Armenia
2.20
FC Urartu
1.97
Pyunik Yerevan
1.77
Van
1.73
BKMA
1.20
Shirak
1.10
Ararat
1.00
West Armenia
0.96
Alashkert
0.79
Gandzasar
0.25
Ararat-Armenia is 0.47 points better than Van in terms of average points per game (2.20 vs 1.73).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Noah
3.07
Ararat-Armenia
2.50
FC Urartu
2.07
Pyunik Yerevan
1.97
Van
1.87
BKMA
1.47
Ararat
1.14
Shirak
0.93
West Armenia
0.89
Alashkert
0.72
Gandzasar
0.46
Ararat-Armenia is 0.63 goals better than Van in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 1.87).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Noah
0.67
Ararat-Armenia
0.93
FC Urartu
1.10
Van
1.20
Pyunik Yerevan
1.23
Shirak
1.72
Alashkert
1.79
BKMA
1.80
Ararat
2.03
West Armenia
2.48
Gandzasar
2.50
Ararat-Armenia is 0.27 goals better than Van in terms of goals conceded per game (0.93 vs 1.20).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L31W10W00D10W01L12L00D10WA·SHI22/10H·FC 28/10A·BKM02/11H·WES06/11A·ARA10/11H·GAN21/11A·ALA27/11A·FC 04/12H·FC 25/02A·PYU01/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.431.000.230.940.59
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.670.670.400.200.861.00
vs Weaker (18)1.170.281.380.251.000.30
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VanVan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L11D02L01L20W11D02L10W00D10WH·PYU06/10A·FC 16/10A·FC 20/10A·PYU28/10H·ARA05/11H·FC 11/11H·BKM22/11A·WES26/11H·SHI02/12H·ALA01/03
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.630.880.750.500.50
vs Stronger (12)0.331.080.291.000.401.20
vs Similar (18)0.940.331.330.560.560.11
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W00D11D20W00D20W21W00D12L11DA·SHI22/10H·FC 28/10A·BKM02/11H·WES06/11A·ARA10/11H·GAN21/11A·ALA27/11A·FC 04/12H·FC 25/02A·PYU01/03
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.631.150.771.290.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.831.080.601.401.000.86
vs Weaker (18)1.500.331.500.381.500.30
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VanVan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D02L03L00D20W20W21W10W10W01LH·PYU06/10A·FC 16/10A·FC 20/10A·PYU28/10H·ARA05/11H·FC 11/11H·BKM22/11A·WES26/11H·SHI02/12H·ALA01/03
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.731.060.750.430.71
vs Stronger (12)0.421.170.571.000.201.40
vs Similar (18)1.000.441.440.560.560.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
Ararat-Armenia's squad is €7m more valuable than Van's (€8m vs €2m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia's attack is €3m more valuable than Van's (€3m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia's midfield is €2m more valuable than Van's (€2m vs €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
Ararat-Armenia's defence is €3m more valuable than Van's (€4m vs €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
7
ARA wins
0
Draws
1
VAN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ararat-Armenia vs Van · H/A from ARA
DateH/AGameScore
04/08/24AVan Vs ARA0-2
02/05/24AVan Vs ARA0-5
03/03/24HARA Vs Van0-2
28/10/23AVan Vs ARA0-2
27/08/23HARA Vs Van3-0
22/05/23HARA Vs Van4-1
17/03/23AVan Vs ARA1-2
03/11/22HARA Vs Van4-0

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/03/25APyunik Yerevan Vs ARA1-2
25/02/25HARA Vs FC Urartu1-2
04/12/24AFC Noah Vs ARA2-1
27/11/24AAlashkert Vs ARA2-2
21/11/24HARA Vs Gandzasar3-0
10/11/24AArarat Vs ARA0-0
06/11/24HARA Vs West Armenia3-0
02/11/24ABKMA Vs ARA2-4
28/10/24HARA Vs FC Noah0-1
22/10/24AShirak Vs ARA0-3

VanVan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/03/25HVAN Vs Alashkert1-1
02/12/24HVAN Vs Shirak1-0
26/11/24AWest Armenia Vs VAN0-2
22/11/24HVAN Vs BKMA2-3
11/11/24HVAN Vs FC Urartu3-1
05/11/24HVAN Vs Ararat4-0
28/10/24APyunik Yerevan Vs VAN1-0
20/10/24AFC Noah Vs VAN5-0
16/10/24AFC Urartu Vs VAN3-1
06/10/24HVAN Vs Pyunik Yerevan1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ararat-Armenia
Ararat-Armenia
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLW2.02
HomeWLWWL2.00
AwayWDDLW2.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%64%60%
AVG goals2.923.002.84
Over 1.5 %82%88%76%
Over 2.5 %62%64%60%
Over 3.5 %34%36%32%
Scored1.982.041.92
Conceded0.940.960.92
BTTS54%56%52%
Clean Sheet36%28%44%
Corners8.5010.007.00
Cards6.506.007.00
Van
Van
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWD1.16
HomeWWLWD1.35
AwayWLLLW0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%38%25%
AVG goals3.023.312.71
Over 1.5 %82%85%79%
Over 2.5 %50%58%42%
Over 3.5 %40%50%29%
Scored1.301.730.83
Conceded1.721.581.88
BTTS44%50%38%
Clean Sheet28%23%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC NoahFC Noah3075
80%
2.5
9220+72
3.7
90%
80%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5343.10.7
-
2Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia3066
70%
2.2
7528+47
3.4
93%
80%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3242.50.9
-
3FC UrartuFC Urartu3059
60%
2.0
6233+29
3.2
83%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.11.1
-
4Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan3053
57%
1.8
5937+22
3.2
83%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2222.01.2
-
5VanVan3052
50%
1.7
5636+20
3.1
87%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.91.2
-
6BKMABKMA3036
33%
1.2
4454-10
3.3
83%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.51.8
-
7ShirakShirak2932
31%
1.1
2750-23
2.7
72%
52%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.91.7
-
8AraratArarat2929
28%
1.0
3359-26
3.2
86%
66%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0121.12.0
-
9West ArmeniaWest Armenia2726
30%
1.0
2467-43
3.4
85%
63%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.5
-
10AlashkertAlashkert2923
17%
0.8
2152-31
2.5
76%
38%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3120.71.8
-
11GandzasarGandzasar287
4%
0.2
1370-57
3.0
75%
57%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.52.5
-
Armenia: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →

← all matches