Ararat-Armenia is the clear favourite to win against Van, with the model predicting a home win at 71% probability. This is largely due to Van's struggling away form, conceding an average of 1.91 goals per game against stronger opponents. Ararat-Armenia has a strong home record, scoring an average of 2.27 goals and conceding just 0.73 goals per game.
The expected total number of goals is 3.0, with the most likely total goals being 2. The model's most likely score is 2-0, with a probability of 13.1%. Van's away scoring average is 0.55 goals per game, while Ararat-Armenia's home scoring average is 2.27 goals per game.
The model's selections include an Over 1.5 goals selection at 80.3% probability and a Home win selection at 71.5% probability. The home win percentage is 71%, the draw percentage is 19%, and the away win percentage is 9%. The model's suggested picks are an Over 1.5 goals selection (80.3%) and a Home win selection (71.5%).
Results analysis
Ararat-Armenia's win extends their run of form, following a 2-0 victory over Van. The final score was indeed 2-0, resulting in a home win. The model correctly predicted the favourite, Ararat-Armenia to win, with a pre-match probability of 71%. The model's selection of a home win was correct. The model also suggested Over 1.5 goals, which hit with an 80.3% probability, and Home win, which hit with a 71.5% probability.
ðŊ 1. Model Analysis
Ararat-Armenia winâ Hit
71.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâ Miss
19.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Van winâ Miss
9.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
â― 2. Goal Analysis
Ararat-Armenia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.13
2.00
1.00
1.87
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.38
1.31
1.33
1.50
1.43
1.14
vs Weaker (17)
2.35
1.00
2.44
0.67
2.25
1.38
Clean sheet %
30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Van
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.57
1.20
1.53
0.80
1.60
vs Stronger (15)
0.73
2.00
0.86
1.57
0.62
2.38
vs Similar (15)
1.27
1.13
1.50
1.50
1.00
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.3%
Under 1.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.7%
Under 2.5
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.3%
Under 3.5
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.3%
No
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0 â
13.1%
1-0
10.9%
3-0
9.8%
2-1
9.3%
1-1
9.1%
3-1
7.0%
0-0
6.0%
4-0
5.5%
Ararat-Armenia goals ↓
Van goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
2.9%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
1
11%
9.1%
2.9%
0.7%
0.1%
2
13%
9.3%
3.3%
0.8%
0.1%
3
9.8%
7.0%
2.5%
0.6%
0.1%
4
5.5%
3.9%
1.4%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat-Armenia goals (down), columns = Van goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Ararat-Armenia
2.22
FC Noah
2.07
Pyunik Yerevan
2.04
Alashkert
1.96
FC Urartu
1.81
Sardarapat
1.17
Van
1.15
Syunik
1.07
BKMA
0.85
Gandzasar
0.78
Shirak
0.48
Ararat
0.48
Ararat-Armenia is 1.07 points better than Van in terms of average points per game (2.22 vs 1.15).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.26
Ararat-Armenia
1.85
FC Urartu
1.59
Alashkert
1.56
Pyunik Yerevan
1.37
BKMA
1.11
Sardarapat
1.09
Van
1.00
Syunik
0.99
Ararat
0.78
Gandzasar
0.74
Shirak
0.63
Ararat-Armenia is 0.85 goals better than Van in terms of goals scored per game (1.85 vs 1.00).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.67
FC Noah
0.70
Alashkert
0.85
Ararat-Armenia
0.93
FC Urartu
0.96
Van
1.48
Gandzasar
1.52
Sardarapat
1.53
BKMA
1.56
Syunik
1.67
Shirak
1.89
Ararat
2.33
Ararat-Armenia is 0.56 goals better than Van in terms of goals conceded per game (0.93 vs 1.48).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ararat-Armenia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
0.93
0.60
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.62
0.83
0.83
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (17)
0.88
0.41
1.00
0.44
0.75
0.38
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Van
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.83
0.40
0.60
0.27
1.07
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
1.00
0.29
0.43
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.67
0.50
0.75
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ararat-Armenia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.63
1.07
0.40
1.27
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.69
0.50
0.67
1.00
0.71
vs Weaker (17)
1.47
0.59
1.44
0.22
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Van
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
0.80
0.93
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
1.00
0.57
1.14
0.38
0.88
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.47
1.00
0.75
0.71
0.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home win
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
SAR (23)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
Ararat-Armenia's squad is €7m more valuable than Van's (€8m vs €2m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia's attack is €3m more valuable than Van's (€3m vs €1m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
VAN (3)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia's midfield is €2m more valuable than Van's (€2m vs €0m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
SAR (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia's defence is €3m more valuable than Van's (€4m vs €1m).
Armenia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Noah
Alashkert
FC Urartu
Pyunik Yerevan
Sardarapat
Shirak
BKMA
Gandzasar
Ararat
Syunik