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Ararat vs Alashkert Result & Analysis

Date: 03/08/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 2-0
Ararat
Ararat
Vs
28%
28%
44%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Alashkert
Alashkert
Armenia: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Ararat win✓ Hit
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Alashkert win✗ Miss
44.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

AraratArarat

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D12L01L21W11D31W01L10W13L11DH·FC 03/04A·ARA12/04H·PYU17/04A·WES22/04H·VAN26/04A·BKM03/05H·FC 09/05A·SHI15/05H·ALA20/05A·FC 24/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.330.731.201.531.47
vs Stronger (20)0.901.650.301.501.501.80
vs Similar (10)1.600.701.600.601.600.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AlashkertAlashkert

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-612L12L12L32W00D12L23L16L31W13LA·ARA04/04A·PYU12/04H·WES18/04A·VAN22/04H·BKM28/04A·FC 04/05H·SHI10/05A·FC 16/05A·ARA20/05H·ARA26/05
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.671.131.271.532.07
vs Stronger (10)1.002.300.751.751.172.67
vs Similar (10)1.301.901.401.401.202.40
vs Weaker (10)1.700.801.170.832.500.75
Clean sheet %20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.1%
Under 1.5
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.3%
Under 2.5
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.3%
Under 3.5
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.0%
No
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-2
9.2%
0-1
9.1%
0-0
8.0%
0-2
7.8%
2-1
7.1%
1-0
6.8%
2-2
5.4%
Ararat goals ↓
Alashkert goals →
01234
08.0%9.1%7.8%4.0%1.5%
16.8%13%9.2%4.6%1.8%
24.7%7.1%5.4%2.7%1.0%
31.8%2.8%2.1%1.1%0.4%
40.5%0.8%0.6%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat goals (down), columns = Alashkert goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Noah
2.50
Ararat-Armenia
2.20
FC Urartu
1.97
Pyunik Yerevan
1.77
Van
1.73
BKMA
1.20
Shirak
1.10
Ararat
1.00
West Armenia
0.96
Alashkert
0.79
Gandzasar
0.25
Ararat is 0.21 points better than Alashkert in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.79).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Noah
3.07
Ararat-Armenia
2.50
FC Urartu
2.07
Pyunik Yerevan
1.97
Van
1.87
BKMA
1.47
Ararat
1.14
Shirak
0.93
West Armenia
0.89
Alashkert
0.72
Gandzasar
0.46
Ararat is 0.41 goals better than Alashkert in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 0.72).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Noah
0.67
Ararat-Armenia
0.93
FC Urartu
1.10
Van
1.20
Pyunik Yerevan
1.23
Shirak
1.72
Alashkert
1.79
BKMA
1.80
Ararat
2.03
West Armenia
2.48
Gandzasar
2.50
Ararat is 0.24 goals worse than Alashkert in terms of goals conceded per game (2.03 vs 1.79).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AraratArarat

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D00D00D01L01L00D02L00DH·FC 03/04A·ARA12/04H·PYU17/04A·WES22/04H·VAN26/04A·BKM03/05H·FC 09/05A·SHI15/05H·ALA20/05A·FC 24/05
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.730.270.730.470.73
vs Stronger (20)0.300.950.100.900.501.00
vs Similar (10)0.500.300.600.400.400.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AlashkertAlashkert

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L01L10W00D01L21W11D20W01LA·ARA04/04A·PYU12/04H·WES18/04A·VAN22/04H·BKM28/04A·FC 04/05H·SHI10/05A·FC 16/05A·ARA20/05H·ARA26/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.670.530.530.730.80
vs Stronger (10)0.501.300.500.750.501.67
vs Similar (10)0.400.500.200.600.600.40
vs Weaker (10)1.000.200.830.331.250.00
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AraratArarat

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L01L21W11D30W00D10W11D11DH·FC 03/04A·ARA12/04H·PYU17/04A·WES22/04H·VAN26/04A·BKM03/05H·FC 09/05A·SHI15/05H·ALA20/05A·FC 24/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.600.470.471.070.73
vs Stronger (20)0.600.700.200.601.000.80
vs Similar (10)1.100.401.000.201.200.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AlashkertAlashkert

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L10W11D22D00D11D02L05L11D12LA·ARA04/04A·PYU12/04H·WES18/04A·VAN22/04H·BKM28/04A·FC 04/05H·SHI10/05A·FC 16/05A·ARA20/05H·ARA26/05
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.000.600.730.801.27
vs Stronger (10)0.501.000.251.000.671.00
vs Similar (10)0.901.401.200.800.602.00
vs Weaker (10)0.700.600.330.501.250.75
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.571.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
Ararat's squad is €2m less valuable than Alashkert's (€3m vs €5m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Ararat's attack is €2m less valuable than Alashkert's (€0m vs €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
Ararat and Alashkert have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
Ararat and Alashkert have a similar defence value (both €2m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
ARA wins
0
Draws
7
ALA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ararat vs Alashkert · H/A from ARA
DateH/AGameScore
20/05/24HARA Vs Alashkert1-3
30/03/24AAlashkert Vs ARA2-1
12/11/23HARA Vs Alashkert0-1
20/09/23AAlashkert Vs ARA2-1
26/04/23HARA Vs Alashkert2-4
04/12/22AAlashkert Vs ARA0-1
14/10/22HARA Vs Alashkert0-1
06/08/22AAlashkert Vs ARA2-0

AraratArarat

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/05/24AFC Urartu Vs ARA1-1
20/05/24HARA Vs Alashkert1-3
15/05/24AShirak Vs ARA0-1
09/05/24HARA Vs FC Noah0-1
03/05/24ABKMA Vs ARA1-3
26/04/24HARA Vs Van1-1
22/04/24AWest Armenia Vs ARA1-2
17/04/24HARA Vs Pyunik Yerevan0-1
12/04/24AArarat-Armenia Vs ARA2-1
03/04/24HARA Vs FC Urartu0-0

AlashkertAlashkert

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/05/24HALA Vs Ararat-Armenia1-3
20/05/24AArarat Vs ALA1-3
16/05/24AFC Urartu Vs ALA6-1
10/05/24HALA Vs Shirak2-3
04/05/24AFC Noah Vs ALA2-1
28/04/24HALA Vs BKMA0-0
22/04/24AVan Vs ALA2-3
18/04/24HALA Vs West Armenia1-2
12/04/24APyunik Yerevan Vs ALA2-1
04/04/24AArarat-Armenia Vs ALA2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ararat
Ararat
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLD1.22
HomeDLDLL1.16
AwayLWWWD1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%32%36%
AVG goals2.442.122.76
Over 1.5 %74%60%88%
Over 2.5 %46%28%64%
Over 3.5 %18%20%16%
Scored1.080.801.36
Conceded1.361.321.40
BTTS52%36%68%
Clean Sheet28%32%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Alashkert
Alashkert
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWL1.46
HomeWLDLL1.32
AwayLWLLW1.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%36%52%
AVG goals2.962.403.52
Over 1.5 %74%72%76%
Over 2.5 %56%44%68%
Over 3.5 %34%20%48%
Scored1.581.201.96
Conceded1.381.201.56
BTTS58%52%64%
Clean Sheet26%28%24%
Corners11.0012.509.50
Cards4.503.006.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC NoahFC Noah3075
80%
2.5
9220+72
3.7
90%
80%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5343.10.7
-
2Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia3066
70%
2.2
7528+47
3.4
93%
80%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3242.50.9
-
3FC UrartuFC Urartu3059
60%
2.0
6233+29
3.2
83%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.11.1
-
4Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan3053
57%
1.8
5937+22
3.2
83%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2222.01.2
-
5VanVan3052
50%
1.7
5636+20
3.1
87%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.91.2
-
6BKMABKMA3036
33%
1.2
4454-10
3.3
83%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.51.8
-
7ShirakShirak2932
31%
1.1
2750-23
2.7
72%
52%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.91.7
-
8AraratArarat2929
28%
1.0
3359-26
3.2
86%
66%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0121.12.0
-
9West ArmeniaWest Armenia2726
30%
1.0
2467-43
3.4
85%
63%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.5
-
10AlashkertAlashkert2923
17%
0.8
2152-31
2.5
76%
38%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3120.71.8
-
11GandzasarGandzasar287
4%
0.2
1370-57
3.0
75%
57%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.52.5
-
Armenia: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →

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