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Ararat vs FC Noah Result & Analysis

Date: 03/11/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 0-2
Ararat
Ararat
Vs
30%
29%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Noah
FC Noah
Armenia: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Player market rates14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Ararat win✗ Miss
30.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Noah win✓ Hit
40.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

AraratArarat

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L03L21W12L11D12L05L20W21W02LH·BKM25/08A·FC 31/08H·SHI14/09A·ALA20/09H·FC 24/09A·ARA29/09H·PYU04/10A·WES19/10H·VAN24/10A·BKM29/10
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.571.001.751.071.36
vs Stronger (17)0.881.820.782.001.001.62
vs Similar (13)1.231.231.291.431.171.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC NoahFC Noah

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L30W34L01L42W20W30W01L20W42WA·ALA25/08H·ARA31/08A·ARA15/09H·PYU21/09A·WES26/09A·VAN30/09H·BKM05/10A·FC 21/10A·SHI26/10H·ALA30/10
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.231.931.071.121.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.801.801.001.400.602.20
vs Weaker (20)1.850.952.440.891.361.00
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%017%127%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.6%
Under 1.5
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.9%
Under 2.5
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.4%
Under 3.5
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.9%
No
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
0-1
9.6%
0-0
9.0%
1-2
8.7%
1-0
7.8%
0-2 ✓
7.5%
2-1
7.3%
2-0
5.3%
Ararat goals ↓
FC Noah goals →
01234
09.0%9.6%7.5%3.5%1.2%
17.8%14%8.7%4.0%1.4%
25.3%7.3%5.1%2.4%0.8%
32.0%2.8%2.0%0.9%0.3%
40.6%0.8%0.6%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat goals (down), columns = FC Noah goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.28
FC Noah
2.22
Ararat-Armenia
2.08
FC Urartu
1.39
Alashkert
1.25
Ararat
1.25
West Armenia
1.03
Shirak
0.92
Van
0.89
BKMA
0.75
Ararat is 0.97 points worse than FC Noah in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 2.22).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.33
Ararat-Armenia
2.03
FC Noah
1.92
Alashkert
1.50
FC Urartu
1.36
West Armenia
1.19
Ararat
1.08
Van
0.89
BKMA
0.89
Shirak
0.78
Ararat is 0.83 goals worse than FC Noah in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.92).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.78
FC Noah
0.92
Ararat-Armenia
0.94
Shirak
1.28
FC Urartu
1.36
Ararat
1.39
Alashkert
1.56
Van
1.86
BKMA
1.86
West Armenia
2.03
Ararat is 0.47 goals worse than FC Noah in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 0.92).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AraratArarat

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L21W11D11D01L02L00D01L00DH·BKM25/08A·FC 31/08H·SHI14/09A·ALA20/09H·FC 24/09A·ARA29/09H·PYU04/10A·WES19/10H·VAN24/10A·BKM29/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.770.440.940.500.57
vs Stronger (17)0.530.940.561.000.500.88
vs Similar (13)0.380.540.290.860.500.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC NoahFC Noah

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D20W03L00D30W00D20W01L20W32WA·ALA25/08H·ARA31/08A·ARA15/09H·PYU21/09A·WES26/09A·VAN30/09H·BKM05/10A·FC 21/10A·SHI26/10H·ALA30/10
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.531.070.500.440.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.201.000.400.600.001.40
vs Weaker (20)1.000.301.440.440.640.18
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AraratArarat

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L00D01L00D11D03L20W20W02LH·BKM25/08A·FC 31/08H·SHI14/09A·ALA20/09H·FC 24/09A·ARA29/09H·PYU04/10A·WES19/10H·VAN24/10A·BKM29/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.800.560.810.570.79
vs Stronger (17)0.350.880.221.000.500.75
vs Similar (13)0.850.691.000.570.670.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC NoahFC Noah

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L10W31W01L12L20W10W00D00D10WA·ALA25/08H·ARA31/08A·ARA15/09H·PYU21/09A·WES26/09A·VAN30/09H·BKM05/10A·FC 21/10A·SHI26/10H·ALA30/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.700.860.570.690.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.600.800.600.800.600.80
vs Weaker (20)0.850.651.000.440.730.82
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.6%-------✓ Hit

ðŸŽ― 13. Player market rates

FC Noah · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nardin Mulahusejnović62%
Matheus AiÃĄs20%
Alen Grgić17%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan14%
HÃĐlder Ferreira10%
Marin JakoliÅĄ0%
Gustavo SangarÃĐ0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Yan Eteki0%
Guðmundur ÞÃģrarinsson0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
NathanaÃŦl Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
David Sualehe30%
Gustavo SangarÃĐ22%
Imran Oulad Omar20%
HÃĐlder Ferreira20%
Sergey Muradyan20%
Alen Grgić17%
Marin JakoliÅĄ12%
Guðmundur ÞÃģrarinsson12%
NathanaÃŦl Saintini12%
Nardin Mulahusejnović12%
Yan Eteki10%
Eric Boakye10%
Matheus AiÃĄs10%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
HÃĐlder Ferreira20%
Guðmundur ÞÃģrarinsson12%
Nardin Mulahusejnović12%
Takuto Oshima11%
David Sualehe10%
Matheus AiÃĄs10%
Sergey Muradyan10%
Marin JakoliÅĄ0%
Alen Grgić0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo SangarÃĐ0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Yan Eteki0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
NathanaÃŦl Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nardin Mulahusejnović38%
Imran Oulad Omar20%
HÃĐlder Ferreira10%
Matheus AiÃĄs10%
Marin JakoliÅĄ0%
Alen Grgić0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo SangarÃĐ0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Yan Eteki0%
Guðmundur ÞÃģrarinsson0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
NathanaÃŦl Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
Ararat's squad is €10m less valuable than FC Noah's (€3m vs €12m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Ararat's attack is €4m less valuable than FC Noah's (€0m vs €5m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
Ararat's midfield is €2m less valuable than FC Noah's (€1m vs €3m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
Ararat's defence is €3m less valuable than FC Noah's (€2m vs €4m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
2
ARA wins
1
Draws
2
FN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ararat vs FC Noah · H/A from ARA
DateH/AGameScore
31/08/23AFC Noah Vs ARA3-0
20/05/23HARA Vs FC Noah1-0
18/03/23AFC Noah Vs ARA2-1
05/11/22HARA Vs FC Noah2-1
03/09/22AFC Noah Vs ARA0-0

AraratArarat

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/10/23ABKMA Vs ARA2-0
24/10/23HARA Vs Van2-1
19/10/23AWest Armenia Vs ARA0-2
04/10/23HARA Vs Pyunik Yerevan0-5
29/09/23AArarat-Armenia Vs ARA2-1
24/09/23HARA Vs FC Urartu1-1
20/09/23AAlashkert Vs ARA2-1
14/09/23HARA Vs Shirak2-1
31/08/23AFC Noah Vs ARA3-0
25/08/23HARA Vs BKMA0-2

FC NoahFC Noah

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/10/23HFN Vs Alashkert4-2
26/10/23AShirak Vs FN0-2
21/10/23AFC Urartu Vs FN1-0
05/10/23HFN Vs BKMA3-0
30/09/23AVan Vs FN0-2
26/09/23AWest Armenia Vs FN2-4
21/09/23HFN Vs Pyunik Yerevan0-1
15/09/23AArarat-Armenia Vs FN4-3
31/08/23HFN Vs Ararat3-0
25/08/23AAlashkert Vs FN3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ararat
Ararat
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWL1.10
HomeLWDLW1.16
AwayLLLWL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%32%28%
AVG goals2.182.202.16
Over 1.5 %70%64%76%
Over 2.5 %42%36%48%
Over 3.5 %12%20%4%
Scored0.860.800.92
Conceded1.321.401.24
BTTS44%40%48%
Clean Sheet34%32%36%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Noah
FC Noah
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 0 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWW1.18
HomeWWLWW1.48
AwayLWWLW0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%44%24%
AVG goals2.863.002.72
Over 1.5 %74%72%76%
Over 2.5 %54%60%48%
Over 3.5 %32%36%28%
Scored1.261.560.96
Conceded1.601.441.76
BTTS38%44%32%
Clean Sheet30%36%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan3682
67%
2.3
8428+56
3.1
86%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2222.30.8
-
2FC NoahFC Noah3680
72%
2.2
6933+36
2.8
67%
44%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5341.90.9
-
3Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia3675
64%
2.1
7334+39
3.0
83%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3242.00.9
-
4FC UrartuFC Urartu3650
36%
1.4
4949+0
2.7
81%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.41.4
-
5AlashkertAlashkert3645
36%
1.2
5456-2
3.1
81%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3121.51.6
-
6AraratArarat3645
36%
1.2
3950-11
2.5
75%
47%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0121.11.4
-
7West ArmeniaWest Armenia3637
31%
1.0
4373-30
3.2
78%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
8ShirakShirak3633
22%
0.9
2846-18
2.1
56%
31%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.81.3
-
9VanVan3632
22%
0.9
3267-35
2.8
75%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.91.9
-
10BKMABKMA3627
19%
0.8
3267-35
2.8
69%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.91.9
-
Armenia: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →

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