PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Ararat vs FC Urartu Result & Analysis

Date: 03/11/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 0-1
Ararat
Ararat
Vs
15%
24%
60%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Urartu
FC Urartu
Armenia: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Ararat win✗ Miss
15.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu win✓ Hit
60.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

AraratArarat

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-601L03L02L24L24L06L02L22D04L03LH·VAN09/08A·ALA16/08H·PYU22/08A·ARA30/08A·SHI12/09A·FC 19/09A·FC 28/09H·BKM04/10A·BKM19/10H·FC 27/10
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
3.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.902.501.081.850.763.00
vs Stronger (18)0.722.891.002.290.553.27
vs Similar (12)1.171.921.171.331.172.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC UrartuFC Urartu

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-610W20W01L21W23L60W10W00D00D50WH·GAN09/08A·VAN15/08H·ALA22/08A·PYU29/08H·ARA14/09H·ARA19/09A·SHI26/09H·FC 05/10A·FC 18/10H·SHI24/10
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.031.132.271.271.801.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.891.171.801.302.001.00
vs Weaker (12)2.251.083.201.201.571.00
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.8%
Under 1.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.1%
Under 2.5
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.1%
Under 3.5
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.6%
No
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.7%
0-1 ✓
11.6%
1-1
11.6%
1-2
9.7%
0-0
7.9%
0-3
7.2%
1-3
6.0%
1-0
4.7%
Ararat goals ↓
FC Urartu goals →
01234
07.9%12%12%7.2%3.3%
14.7%12%9.7%6.0%2.8%
22.4%4.4%4.1%2.5%1.1%
30.7%1.2%1.1%0.7%0.3%
40.1%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat goals (down), columns = FC Urartu goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ararat-Armenia
2.22
FC Noah
2.07
Pyunik Yerevan
2.04
Alashkert
1.96
FC Urartu
1.81
Van
1.15
BKMA
0.85
Gandzasar
0.78
Ararat
0.48
Shirak
0.48
Ararat is 1.33 points worse than FC Urartu in terms of average points per game (0.48 vs 1.81).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.26
Ararat-Armenia
1.85
FC Urartu
1.59
Alashkert
1.56
Pyunik Yerevan
1.37
BKMA
1.11
Van
1.00
Ararat
0.78
Gandzasar
0.74
Shirak
0.63
Ararat is 0.81 goals worse than FC Urartu in terms of goals scored per game (0.78 vs 1.59).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.67
FC Noah
0.70
Alashkert
0.85
Ararat-Armenia
0.93
FC Urartu
0.96
Van
1.48
Gandzasar
1.52
BKMA
1.56
Shirak
1.89
Ararat
2.33
Ararat is 1.37 goals worse than FC Urartu in terms of goals conceded per game (2.33 vs 0.96).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AraratArarat

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L00D21W22D01L00D02L01L01LH·VAN09/08A·ALA16/08H·PYU22/08A·ARA30/08A·SHI12/09A·FC 19/09A·FC 28/09H·BKM04/10A·BKM19/10H·FC 27/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.970.540.850.471.06
vs Stronger (18)0.390.940.570.860.271.00
vs Similar (12)0.671.000.500.830.831.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC UrartuFC Urartu

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W00D10W01L10W00D00D00D30WH·GAN09/08A·VAN15/08H·ALA22/08A·PYU29/08H·ARA14/09H·ARA19/09A·SHI26/09H·FC 05/10A·FC 18/10H·SHI24/10
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.371.070.470.400.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.610.440.900.600.250.25
vs Weaker (12)0.920.251.400.200.570.29
Clean sheet %70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AraratArarat

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L01L02L03L02L05L02L20W03L02LH·VAN09/08A·ALA16/08H·PYU22/08A·ARA30/08A·SHI12/09A·FC 19/09A·FC 28/09H·BKM04/10A·BKM19/10H·FC 27/10
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.530.541.000.291.94
vs Stronger (18)0.331.940.431.430.272.27
vs Similar (12)0.500.920.670.500.331.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC UrartuFC Urartu

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W10W01L11D22D50W10W00D00D20WH·GAN09/08A·VAN15/08H·ALA22/08A·PYU29/08H·ARA14/09H·ARA19/09A·SHI26/09H·FC 05/10A·FC 18/10H·SHI24/10
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.300.771.200.801.400.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.280.720.900.701.750.75
vs Weaker (12)1.330.831.801.001.000.71
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.8%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.571.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
Ararat's squad is €2m less valuable than FC Urartu's (€3m vs €5m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Ararat's attack is €2m less valuable than FC Urartu's (€0m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
Ararat and FC Urartu have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
Ararat and FC Urartu have a similar defence value (both €2m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
0
ARA wins
3
Draws
5
FU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ararat vs FC Urartu · H/A from ARA
DateH/AGameScore
19/09/25AFC Urartu Vs ARA6-0
24/05/25HARA Vs FC Urartu2-4
26/10/24AFC Urartu Vs ARA1-0
06/10/24HARA Vs FC Urartu0-1
24/05/24AFC Urartu Vs ARA1-1
03/04/24HARA Vs FC Urartu0-0
29/11/23AFC Urartu Vs ARA2-1
24/09/23HARA Vs FC Urartu1-1

AraratArarat

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/10/25HARA Vs FC Noah0-3
19/10/25ABKMA Vs ARA4-0
04/10/25HARA Vs BKMA2-2
28/09/25AFC Noah Vs ARA2-0
19/09/25AFC Urartu Vs ARA6-0
12/09/25AShirak Vs ARA4-2
30/08/25AArarat-Armenia Vs ARA4-2
22/08/25HARA Vs Pyunik Yerevan0-2
16/08/25AAlashkert Vs ARA3-0
09/08/25HARA Vs Van0-1

FC UrartuFC Urartu

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/10/25HFU Vs Shirak5-0
18/10/25AFC Noah Vs FU0-0
05/10/25HFU Vs FC Noah0-0
26/09/25AShirak Vs FU0-1
19/09/25HFU Vs Ararat6-0
14/09/25HFU Vs Ararat-Armenia2-3
29/08/25APyunik Yerevan Vs FU1-2
22/08/25HFU Vs Alashkert0-1
15/08/25AVan Vs FU0-2
09/08/25HFU Vs Gandzasar1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ararat
Ararat
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 0 Wins / 1 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLL0.86
HomeLLLDL0.79
AwayLLLLL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%17%27%
AVG goals3.042.583.46
Over 1.5 %82%75%88%
Over 2.5 %60%50%69%
Over 3.5 %34%25%42%
Scored1.000.961.04
Conceded2.041.622.42
BTTS52%54%50%
Clean Sheet12%12%12%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Urartu
FC Urartu
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDDW1.82
HomeLLWDW1.77
AwayDWWWD1.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%54%54%
AVG goals3.043.192.88
Over 1.5 %80%77%83%
Over 2.5 %58%58%58%
Over 3.5 %32%35%29%
Scored1.922.121.71
Conceded1.121.081.17
BTTS52%46%58%
Clean Sheet38%38%38%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia2760
67%
2.2
5025+25
2.8
70%
56%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3241.90.9
-
2FC NoahFC Noah2756
59%
2.1
6119+42
3.0
81%
56%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5342.30.7
-
3Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan2755
63%
2.0
3718+19
2.0
63%
37%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.40.7
-
4AlashkertAlashkert2753
59%
2.0
4223+19
2.4
74%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3121.60.9
-
5FC UrartuFC Urartu2749
52%
1.8
4326+17
2.6
67%
41%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.0
-
6VanVan2731
33%
1.1
2740-13
2.5
67%
56%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.5
-
7BKMABKMA2723
15%
0.9
3042-12
2.7
81%
52%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.11.6
-
8GandzasarGandzasar2721
19%
0.8
2041-21
2.3
59%
33%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.71.5
-
9ShirakShirak2713
7%
0.5
1751-34
2.5
67%
44%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.61.9
-
10AraratArarat2713
11%
0.5
2163-42
3.1
81%
52%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0120.82.3
-
Armenia: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →

← all matches