Ararat face Syunik in a tightly balanced fixture, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are 39 % for Ararat, 28 % for a draw and 33 % for Syunik. The average goal tally sits at 2.7, with the most likely total of two goals at 25 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.3 % chance.
Ararat, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 0.56 goals scored and 1.78 conceded. Syunik, on the road against a weaker opponent, nets 4.0 and concedes only 0.5 on average. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3 %), Under 6.5 (97.8 %), Away under 3.5 goals (95.7 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.1 %), Under 5.5 (94.0 %), Away under 2.5 goals (85.8 %), Under 4.5 (85.7 %) and Home +2 handicap (85.2 %). Each pick is presented with its probability, and no other outcome is given a win chance.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ararat win
41.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Syunik win
31.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ararat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
2.43
0.64
1.64
0.88
3.12
vs Stronger (19)
0.53
2.84
0.56
1.78
0.50
3.80
vs Similar (11)
1.18
1.73
0.80
1.40
1.50
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Syunik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Syunik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.53
1.20
2.75
1.00
2.39
1.33
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
2.71
1.00
2.50
0.60
2.80
vs Similar (9)
1.78
0.78
2.50
0.50
1.20
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
3.93
0.71
3.50
0.83
4.25
0.62
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.8%
Under 1.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.7%
Under 2.5
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.4%
Under 3.5
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.3%
No
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
2-1
8.9%
1-0
8.1%
1-2
7.6%
0-0
7.4%
2-0
7.0%
0-1
6.7%
2-2
5.7%
Ararat goals ↓
Syunik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
6.7%
5.1%
2.2%
0.7%
1
8.1%
13%
7.6%
3.3%
1.0%
2
7.0%
8.9%
5.7%
2.4%
0.8%
3
3.5%
4.5%
2.9%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.3%
1.7%
1.1%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat goals (down), columns = Syunik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Noah
3.00
Pyunik Yerevan
2.50
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.17
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.40
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Gandzasar
0.60
Syunik
0.20
Van
0.17
Ararat is 0.40 points better than Syunik in terms of average points per game (0.60 vs 0.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.60
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.33
Pyunik Yerevan
2.25
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.60
Gandzasar
1.20
BKMA
0.80
Syunik
0.60
Ararat
0.60
Van
0.33
Ararat and Syunik are level in goals scored per game (both 0.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alashkert
0.33
FC Noah
0.60
Pyunik Yerevan
0.75
FC Urartu
1.00
Sardarapat
1.00
Shirak
1.00
BKMA
1.20
Ararat-Armenia
1.40
Ararat
2.40
Gandzasar
2.40
Syunik
2.60
Van
3.00
Ararat is 0.20 goals better than Syunik in terms of goals conceded per game (2.40 vs 2.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ararat or Draw
68.8%
Avg Implied -
41%
28%
31%
covers Ararat + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat or Syunik
72.4%
Avg Implied -
41%
28%
31%
covers Ararat + Syunik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Syunik
58.7%
Avg Implied -
41%
28%
31%
covers Draw + Syunik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ararat over/under 0.5
Over
77.8%
Under
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5
Over
44.3%
Under
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5
Over
19.2%
Under
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 3.5
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 0.5
Over
72.2%
Under
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 1.5
Over
36.6%
Under
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 2.5
Over
13.8%
Under
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 3.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ararat, so a minus line means Ararat give that many goals of a start and Syunik receive them. At -1, Ararat must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ararat win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ararat)
Ararat -2
8.2%
Draw -2
12.7%
Syunik +2
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ararat)
Ararat -1
20.9%
Draw -1
20.4%
Syunik +1
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ararat)
Ararat +1
68.8%
Draw +1
17.2%
Syunik -1
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ararat)
Ararat +2
86.1%
Draw +2
9.2%
Syunik -2
4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ararat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
1.00
0.14
0.79
0.44
1.19
vs Stronger (19)
0.21
1.11
0.11
0.89
0.30
1.30
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.82
0.20
0.60
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Syunik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Syunik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.47
1.08
0.50
1.22
0.44
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.14
0.50
1.50
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.44
0.75
0.50
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (14)
1.86
0.14
1.50
0.17
2.12
0.12
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ararat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.43
0.50
0.86
0.44
1.94
vs Stronger (19)
0.32
1.74
0.44
0.89
0.20
2.50
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.91
0.60
0.80
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Syunik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Syunik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.73
1.67
0.50
1.17
0.89
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.57
0.50
1.00
0.40
1.80
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.33
1.75
0.00
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (14)
2.07
0.57
2.00
0.67
2.12
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
SAR (23)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
Ararat's squad is €1m more valuable than Syunik's (€3m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Ararat and Syunik have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
VAN (3)
€0m
Ararat and Syunik have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
SAR (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
Ararat's defence is €1m more valuable than Syunik's (€2m vs €0m).
Armenia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Noah
Alashkert
Sardarapat
Pyunik Yerevan
Ararat-Armenia
FC Urartu
Shirak
BKMA
Gandzasar
Van