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Ararat vs Van Result & Analysis

Date: 24/10/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 2-1
Ararat
Ararat
Vs
43%
31%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Van
Van
Armenia: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Ararat are tipped to lift the trophy in this Armenia Premier League clash, with the model favouring a home win. The expected goal tally sits at 2.3, pointing to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.3% chance. Home form shows Ararat scoring an average of 1.0 and conceding 1.29 against similar opposition, while Van, on the road, averages 0.71 scored and 2.0 conceded. The probabilities for the match outcome are 43% for a home victory, 31% for a draw, and 26% for an away win. In addition to the predicted result, the model’s selection list includes Under 3.5 goals with an 80.8% probability. Both teams have recently struggled, with Ararat losing their last two matches and Van coming off a defeat, but the home side’s recent form still edges the contest.

Results analysis

Ararat’s recent form, still rattled by two straight defeats, saw them edge out Van 2-1, confirming the model’s home win pick. The prediction was right, with the favoured result landing as expected. The model had assigned a 43% chance to a home victory, a 31% draw and a 26% away win, and the 2-1 scoreline matched the most likely total of 2 goals. The Under 3.5 selection, given an 80.8% probability, also hit. All suggested picks were settled, none missed, and the final outcome matched the model’s forecast, underscoring the accuracy of the Pythia system.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ararat win✓ Hit
43.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Van win✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AraratArarat

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W21W02L03L21W12L11D12L05L20WH·WES12/08A·VAN19/08H·BKM25/08A·FC 31/08H·SHI14/09A·ALA20/09H·FC 24/09A·ARA29/09H·PYU04/10A·WES19/10
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.470.881.691.141.21
vs Stronger (18)0.891.720.782.001.001.44
vs Similar (12)1.171.081.001.291.400.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VanVan

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D12L03L05L02L13L12L02L02L21WA·ALA14/08H·ARA19/08A·ARA27/08H·PYU02/09A·WES14/09A·FC 19/09H·BKM24/09H·FC 30/09A·SHI03/10H·ALA20/10
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.832.031.121.810.502.29
vs Stronger (14)0.362.790.433.000.292.57
vs Similar (15)1.071.471.381.000.712.00
vs Weaker (1)4.000.004.000.00--
Clean sheet %13% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.3%
Under 1.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.3%
Under 2.5
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.2%
Under 3.5
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.1%
No
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0
12.3%
0-0
11.7%
2-0
8.9%
0-1
8.7%
2-1 ✓
8.5%
1-2
6.2%
0-2
4.7%
Ararat goals ↓
Van goals →
01234
012%8.7%4.7%1.5%0.4%
112%14%6.2%2.0%0.5%
28.9%8.5%4.0%1.3%0.3%
33.9%3.7%1.8%0.6%0.1%
41.3%1.2%0.6%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat goals (down), columns = Van goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.28
FC Noah
2.22
Ararat-Armenia
2.08
FC Urartu
1.39
Alashkert
1.25
Ararat
1.25
West Armenia
1.03
Shirak
0.92
Van
0.89
BKMA
0.75
Ararat is 0.36 points better than Van in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 0.89).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.33
Ararat-Armenia
2.03
FC Noah
1.92
Alashkert
1.50
FC Urartu
1.36
West Armenia
1.19
Ararat
1.08
Van
0.89
BKMA
0.89
Shirak
0.78
Ararat is 0.19 goals better than Van in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 0.89).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.78
FC Noah
0.92
Ararat-Armenia
0.94
Shirak
1.28
FC Urartu
1.36
Ararat
1.39
Alashkert
1.56
Van
1.86
BKMA
1.86
West Armenia
2.03
Ararat is 0.47 goals better than Van in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.86).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AraratArarat

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W01L02L21W11D11D01L02L00DH·WES12/08A·VAN19/08H·BKM25/08A·FC 31/08H·SHI14/09A·ALA20/09H·FC 24/09A·ARA29/09H·PYU04/10A·WES19/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.730.440.880.570.57
vs Stronger (18)0.560.890.561.000.560.78
vs Similar (12)0.420.500.290.710.600.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VanVan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L01L02L01L11D01L00D01L10WA·ALA14/08H·ARA19/08A·ARA27/08H·PYU02/09A·WES14/09A·FC 19/09H·BKM24/09H·FC 30/09A·SHI03/10H·ALA20/10
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.700.310.500.290.93
vs Stronger (14)0.140.930.000.710.291.14
vs Similar (15)0.400.530.500.380.290.71
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AraratArarat

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D01L01L00D01L00D11D03L20WH·WES12/08A·VAN19/08H·BKM25/08A·FC 31/08H·SHI14/09A·ALA20/09H·FC 24/09A·ARA29/09H·PYU04/10A·WES19/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.730.440.810.570.64
vs Stronger (18)0.330.830.221.000.440.67
vs Similar (12)0.750.580.710.570.800.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VanVan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D02L03L01L02L11D02L01L11DA·ALA14/08H·ARA19/08A·ARA27/08H·PYU02/09A·WES14/09A·FC 19/09H·BKM24/09H·FC 30/09A·SHI03/10H·ALA20/10
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.330.811.310.211.36
vs Stronger (14)0.211.860.432.290.001.43
vs Similar (15)0.670.930.880.620.431.29
vs Weaker (1)3.000.003.000.00--
Clean sheet %23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.580.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
Ararat's squad is €1m more valuable than Van's (€3m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Ararat and Van have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
Ararat and Van have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
Ararat and Van have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
3
ARA wins
0
Draws
2
VAN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ararat vs Van · H/A from ARA
DateH/AGameScore
19/08/23AVan Vs ARA1-2
15/05/23AVan Vs ARA3-1
10/03/23HARA Vs Van1-3
29/10/22AVan Vs ARA0-2
27/08/22HARA Vs Van1-0

AraratArarat

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/10/23AWest Armenia Vs ARA0-2
04/10/23HARA Vs Pyunik Yerevan0-5
29/09/23AArarat-Armenia Vs ARA2-1
24/09/23HARA Vs FC Urartu1-1
20/09/23AAlashkert Vs ARA2-1
14/09/23HARA Vs Shirak2-1
31/08/23AFC Noah Vs ARA3-0
25/08/23HARA Vs BKMA0-2
19/08/23AVan Vs ARA1-2
12/08/23HARA Vs West Armenia1-0

VanVan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/10/23HVAN Vs Alashkert2-1
03/10/23AShirak Vs VAN2-0
30/09/23HVAN Vs FC Noah0-2
24/09/23HVAN Vs BKMA1-2
19/09/23AFC Urartu Vs VAN3-1
14/09/23AWest Armenia Vs VAN2-0
02/09/23HVAN Vs Pyunik Yerevan0-5
27/08/23AArarat-Armenia Vs VAN3-0
19/08/23HVAN Vs Ararat1-2
14/08/23AAlashkert Vs VAN0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ararat
Ararat
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLW1.06
HomeWLWDL1.08
AwayWLLLW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%28%28%
AVG goals2.202.242.16
Over 1.5 %70%64%76%
Over 2.5 %42%36%48%
Over 3.5 %14%24%4%
Scored0.860.800.92
Conceded1.341.441.24
BTTS44%40%48%
Clean Sheet34%32%36%
Corners11.509.0014.00
Cards5.504.007.00
Van
Van
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW0.98
HomeLLLLW1.04
AwayDLLLL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %27%29%25%
AVG goals2.622.832.42
Over 1.5 %71%79%62%
Over 2.5 %52%62%42%
Over 3.5 %33%33%33%
Scored0.921.080.75
Conceded1.711.751.67
BTTS38%46%29%
Clean Sheet23%17%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan3682
67%
2.3
8428+56
3.1
86%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2222.30.8
-
2FC NoahFC Noah3680
72%
2.2
6933+36
2.8
67%
44%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5341.90.9
-
3Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia3675
64%
2.1
7334+39
3.0
83%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3242.00.9
-
4FC UrartuFC Urartu3650
36%
1.4
4949+0
2.7
81%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.41.4
-
5AlashkertAlashkert3645
36%
1.2
5456-2
3.1
81%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3121.51.6
-
6AraratArarat3645
36%
1.2
3950-11
2.5
75%
47%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0121.11.4
-
7West ArmeniaWest Armenia3637
31%
1.0
4373-30
3.2
78%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
8ShirakShirak3633
22%
0.9
2846-18
2.1
56%
31%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.81.3
-
9VanVan3632
22%
0.9
3267-35
2.8
75%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.91.9
-
10BKMABKMA3627
19%
0.8
3267-35
2.8
69%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.91.9
-
Armenia: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →

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