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Arbroath vs Dunfermline Result & Analysis

Date: 31/08/2019
Time: 15:00
Final 1-0
Arbroath
Arbroath
vs
Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Scotland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Arbroath win
-
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
-
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline win
-
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ArbroathArbroath

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D12L10W11D22D03L11D00D12L10WA·STR23/03A·FOR30/03H·MON06/04A·BRE13/04H·RAI21/04A·AIR27/04H·DUM04/05H·QUE03/08A·INV10/08A·ALL24/08← League OneChampionship →
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.071.471.071.401.07
vs Stronger (9)1.221.111.601.200.751.00
vs Similar (9)1.440.671.000.251.801.00
vs Weaker (12)1.581.331.671.501.501.17
Clean sheet %33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DunfermlineDunfermline

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L22D01L01L12L01L01L22D11D02LH·AYR29/03A·PAR06/04A·ROS09/04H·FAL13/04A·QUE20/04H·MOR27/04A·INV04/05H·DUN02/08A·QUE10/08H·DUN24/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.030.871.000.931.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.891.040.861.070.921.00
vs Weaker (3)1.001.001.000.001.001.50
Clean sheet %33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
0.0%
No
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Dundee Utd
2.11
Inverness CT
1.67
Dundee
1.52
Ayr
1.48
Arbroath
1.38
Dunfermline
1.32
Morton
1.29
Alloa
1.11
Queen of Sth
1.00
Partick
0.96
Arbroath is 0.06 points better than Dunfermline in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.32).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dundee Utd
1.86
Morton
1.61
Dunfermline
1.46
Inverness CT
1.44
Ayr
1.41
Dundee
1.19
Partick
1.19
Alloa
1.18
Queen of Sth
1.00
Arbroath
0.92
Arbroath is 0.54 goals worse than Dunfermline in terms of goals scored per game (0.92 vs 1.46).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Dundee Utd
0.79
Arbroath
1.00
Dundee
1.15
Inverness CT
1.19
Dunfermline
1.29
Ayr
1.30
Queen of Sth
1.43
Alloa
1.54
Partick
1.74
Morton
1.86
Arbroath is 0.29 goals better than Dunfermline in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.29).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

ArbroathArbroath

For 5.1 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.3

🚩 Corners

12093284843641364583751210127104691112A·ALLA·INVH·QUEH·DUMA·AIRH·RAIA·BREH·MONA·FORA·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.9

🟨 Cards

802311131131131441355204244558A·ALLA·INVH·QUEH·DUMA·AIRH·RAIA·BREH·MONA·FORA·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 10.7 · Total 21.8

⚠️ Fouls

3101516897813981111911141212121314631171522192025242520A·ALLA·INVH·QUEH·DUMA·AIRH·RAIA·BREH·MONA·FORA·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

DunfermlineDunfermline

For 5.8 · Against 4.7 · Total 10.5

🚩 Corners

150665310444245772966744128148612915138H·DUNA·QUEH·DUNA·INVH·MORA·QUEH·FALA·ROSA·PARH·AYR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.3

🟨 Cards

5013531142111231224540531344H·DUNA·QUEH·DUNA·INVH·MORA·QUEH·FALA·ROSA·PARH·AYR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 10.9 · Total 21.9

⚠️ Fouls

300612111917108101911810610131195131118302718301816241424H·DUNA·QUEH·DUNA·INVH·MORA·QUEH·FALA·ROSA·PARH·AYR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ArbroathArbroath

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.910.09.93.74.13.421.421.821.1
vs Stronger (15)8.37.99.03.94.43.221.722.620.5
vs Similar (17)10.010.89.72.93.02.921.321.221.3
vs Weaker (18)11.211.411.04.34.34.421.221.321.1
% over line58%50%65%56%58%54%50%58%42%
% under line42%50%35%44%42%46%50%42%58%
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DunfermlineDunfermline

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.79.79.73.23.33.121.521.521.5
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (43)9.89.99.83.33.43.121.621.621.7
vs Weaker (7)8.78.59.02.72.82.720.620.820.3
% over line54%58%50%42%46%38%54%54%54%
% under line46%42%50%58%54%62%46%46%46%
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Alloa
11.2
Morton
11.2
Inverness CT
11.2
Dundee Utd
10.9
Dundee
10.7
Partick
10.7
Queen of Sth
10.1
Arbroath
9.9
Dunfermline
9.7
Ayr
9.2

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Dundee Utd
4.0
Arbroath
3.7
Dundee
3.7
Inverness CT
3.6
Morton
3.4
Ayr
3.3
Partick
3.3
Queen of Sth
3.2
Dunfermline
3.2
Alloa
3.2

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Dundee
23.3
Dundee Utd
23.3
Alloa
22.2
Morton
21.9
Ayr
21.9
Dunfermline
21.5
Arbroath
21.4
Partick
21.3
Inverness CT
21.3
Queen of Sth
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
58.6%
Under 9.5
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.2%
Under 3.5
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
54.4%
Under 21.5
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ArbroathArbroath

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D11D00D11D11D01L00D00D11D10WA·STR23/03A·FOR30/03H·MON06/04A·BRE13/04H·RAI21/04A·AIR27/04H·DUM04/05H·QUE03/08A·INV10/08A·ALL24/08← League OneChampionship →
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.530.470.600.800.47
vs Stronger (9)0.560.560.600.800.500.25
vs Similar (9)0.670.440.250.251.000.60
vs Weaker (12)0.670.580.500.670.830.50
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DunfermlineDunfermline

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L21W00D00D01L00D01L21W10W02LH·AYR29/03A·PAR06/04A·ROS09/04H·FAL13/04A·QUE20/04H·MOR27/04A·INV04/05H·DUN02/08A·QUE10/08H·DUN24/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.470.470.400.470.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.440.410.500.430.380.38
vs Weaker (3)0.671.000.000.001.001.50
Clean sheet %60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ArbroathArbroath

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L10W00D11D02L11D00D01L00DA·STR23/03A·FOR30/03H·MON06/04A·BRE13/04H·RAI21/04A·AIR27/04H·DUM04/05H·QUE03/08A·INV10/08A·ALL24/08← League OneChampionship →
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.531.000.470.600.60
vs Stronger (9)0.670.561.000.400.250.75
vs Similar (9)0.780.220.750.000.800.40
vs Weaker (12)0.920.751.170.830.670.67
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DunfermlineDunfermline

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D01L01L01L11D01L00D01L01L00DH·AYR29/03A·PAR06/04A·ROS09/04H·FAL13/04A·QUE20/04H·MOR27/04A·INV04/05H·DUN02/08A·QUE10/08H·DUN24/08
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.570.400.600.470.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.440.630.360.640.540.62
vs Weaker (3)0.330.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards87.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls76.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards75.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls70.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners70.6%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (22)
€11m
DUN (21)
€5m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
Arbroath's squad is €3m less valuable than Dunfermline's (€1m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (7)
€4m
DUN (9)
€2m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
Arbroath's attack is €1m less valuable than Dunfermline's (€0m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
Arbroath and Dunfermline have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (9)
€4m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
PAR (8)
€1m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Arbroath's defence is €2m less valuable than Dunfermline's (€0m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
ARB wins
0
Draws
0
DUN wins

Head-to-head

Arbroath vs Dunfermline · H/A from ARB
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

ArbroathArbroath

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/08/19AAlloa Vs ARB0-1
10/08/19AInverness CT Vs ARB2-1
03/08/19HARB Vs Queen of Sth0-0
04/05/19HARB Vs Dumbarton1-1
27/04/19AAirdrie United Vs ARB3-0
21/04/19HARB Vs Raith Rvs2-2
13/04/19ABrechin Vs ARB1-1
06/04/19HARB Vs Montrose1-0
30/03/19AForfar Vs ARB2-1
23/03/19AStranraer Vs ARB0-0

DunfermlineDunfermline

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/08/19HDUN Vs Dundee Utd0-2
10/08/19AQueen of Sth Vs DUN1-1
02/08/19HDUN Vs Dundee2-2
04/05/19AInverness CT Vs DUN1-0
27/04/19HDUN Vs Morton0-1
20/04/19AQueen of Sth Vs DUN2-1
13/04/19HDUN Vs Falkirk0-1
09/04/19ARoss County Vs DUN1-0
06/04/19APartick Vs DUN2-2
29/03/19HDUN Vs Ayr0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Arbroath
Arbroath
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 5 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDLW1.82
HomeWWDDD1.92
AwayLDLLW1.73
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%54%50%
AVG goals2.902.793.00
Over 1.5 %82%83%81%
Over 2.5 %50%42%58%
Over 3.5 %32%38%27%
Scored1.741.711.77
Conceded1.161.081.23
BTTS58%58%58%
Clean Sheet30%29%31%
Corners9.949.969.92
Cards3.744.083.42
Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 0 Wins / 3 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDDL1.34
HomeLLLDL1.35
AwayDLLLD1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%38%33%
AVG goals2.181.962.42
Over 1.5 %56%46%67%
Over 2.5 %40%38%42%
Over 3.5 %24%23%25%
Scored1.141.081.21
Conceded1.040.881.21
BTTS34%19%50%
Clean Sheet38%46%29%
Corners9.689.659.71
Cards3.203.313.08

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Dundee UtdDundee Utd2859
64%
2.1
5222+30
2.6
75%
46%
21%
11.4
71%
3.2
39%
21.4
46%
11
4341.90.8
-
2Inverness CTInverness CT2745
52%
1.7
3932+7
2.6
81%
48%
26%
11.0
74%
2.9
22%
20.4
41%
1
0001.41.2
-
3DundeeDundee2741
41%
1.5
3231+1
2.3
70%
33%
15%
10.4
59%
3.4
56%
24.3
67%
5
1221.21.1
-
4
A
Ayr		2740
44%
1.5
3835+3
2.7
74%
48%
30%
9.9
44%
3.4
44%
21.4
52%
0
0001.41.3
-
5DunfermlineDunfermline2837
36%
1.3
4136+5
2.8
82%
39%
29%
10.2
57%
3.4
50%
19.1
25%
4
2021.51.3
-
6ArbroathArbroath2636
38%
1.4
2426-2
1.9
65%
31%
4%
10.4
65%
3.0
31%
21.2
46%
1
0000.91.0
-
7MortonMorton2836
36%
1.3
4552-7
3.5
86%
68%
43%
10.8
61%
3.0
29%
19.2
29%
1
0001.61.9
-
8
A
Alloa		2831
25%
1.1
3343-10
2.7
82%
46%
25%
12.1
68%
2.4
21%
19.2
29%
0
0001.21.5
-
9
QO
Queen of Sth		2828
25%
1.0
2840-12
2.4
71%
43%
29%
10.1
57%
2.7
29%
20.1
43%
0
0001.01.4
-
10PartickPartick2726
22%
1.0
3247-15
2.9
85%
56%
33%
10.9
63%
2.4
22%
19.2
33%
3
1111.21.7
-
Scotland: Championship 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

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