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Arbroath vs Inverness CT Result & Analysis

Date: 03/02/2021
Time: 19:45
Final 1-1
Arbroath
Arbroath
Vs
26%
31%
43%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Inverness CT
Inverness CT
Scotland: Championship
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Arbroath win✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied 24.0% · @ 3.86
Edge
+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.7%
Avg Implied 26.8% · @ 3.45
Edge
+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT win✗ Miss
43.2%
Avg Implied 49.2% · @ 1.88
Edge
-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

ArbroathArbroath

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D01L01L21W01L13L22D11D10WH·QUE07/11H·MOR21/11A·DUN05/12H·ALL12/12H·AYR19/12A·DUN26/12A·HEA29/12A·QUE16/01H·DUN22/01A·MOR30/01
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.131.070.790.751.44
vs Stronger (10)0.701.300.801.000.601.60
vs Similar (20)1.001.051.220.670.821.36
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L11D31W12L20W30W22D12L11D22DA·DUN17/10H·AYR24/10H·ARB31/10A·HEA07/11H·RAI21/11A·QUE04/12H·DUN12/12A·ALL19/12H·DUN29/12A·MOR27/01
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.271.641.071.311.44
vs Stronger (24)1.461.121.551.001.381.23
vs Similar (6)1.501.832.001.331.002.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.3%
Under 1.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.3%
@ 1.99-7.8%
Under 2.5
60.7%
@ 1.77+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.2%
Under 3.5
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.1%
No
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.3%
0-1
12.3%
0-0
11.7%
0-2
8.9%
1-0
8.7%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
6.2%
2-0
4.8%
Arbroath goals ↓
Inverness CT goals →
01234
012%12%8.9%3.8%1.3%
18.7%14%8.5%3.7%1.2%
24.8%6.2%4.1%1.8%0.6%
31.5%2.0%1.3%0.6%0.2%
40.4%0.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arbroath goals (down), columns = Inverness CT goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Dundee
1.67
Raith Rvs
1.59
Dunfermline
1.44
Inverness CT
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.19
Arbroath
1.11
Morton
1.07
Ayr
1.07
Alloa
0.81
Arbroath is 0.22 points worse than Inverness CT in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.33).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.33
Dundee
1.81
Raith Rvs
1.67
Dunfermline
1.41
Queen of Sth
1.41
Inverness CT
1.33
Ayr
1.15
Alloa
1.11
Arbroath
1.04
Morton
0.81
Arbroath is 0.30 goals worse than Inverness CT in terms of goals scored per game (1.04 vs 1.33).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Inverness CT
1.15
Morton
1.22
Dunfermline
1.26
Arbroath
1.26
Raith Rvs
1.33
Ayr
1.37
Dundee
1.48
Queen of Sth
1.89
Alloa
2.22
Arbroath is 0.11 goals worse than Inverness CT in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.15).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

ArbroathArbroath

For 5.6 · Against 3.4 · Total 9.0

ðŸšĐ Corners

130643764237684413461111010105131257711A·MORH·DUNA·QUEA·HEAA·DUNH·AYRH·ALLA·DUNH·MORH·QUE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.1

ðŸŸĻ Cards

7032122322323112221345354541437A·MORH·DUNA·QUEA·HEAA·DUNH·AYRH·ALLA·DUNH·MORH·QUE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 10.0 · Total 23.1

⚠ïļ Fouls

300146121216141017981351951410111513820243027171824242621A·MORH·DUNA·QUEA·HEAA·DUNH·AYRH·ALLA·DUNH·MORH·QUE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Inverness CTInverness CT

For 6.1 · Against 5.5 · Total 11.6

ðŸšĐ Corners

18011766107431865544287661812177911961512A·MORH·DUNA·ALLH·DUNA·QUEH·RAIA·HEAH·ARBH·AYRA·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.0

ðŸŸĻ Cards

60231242111112131132426223144A·MORH·DUNA·ALLH·DUNA·QUEH·RAIA·HEAH·ARBH·AYRA·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 9.4 · Total 20.7

⚠ïļ Fouls

27013141471471213641271411101310781127212125101925231719A·MORH·DUNA·ALLH·DUNA·QUEH·RAIA·HEAH·ARBH·AYRA·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ArbroathArbroath

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.89.89.93.42.93.921.921.122.6
vs Stronger (16)10.410.410.43.83.54.123.321.125.5
vs Similar (29)9.49.69.23.02.53.421.521.421.5
vs Weaker (5)10.88.512.35.03.56.019.819.020.3
% over line62%54%69%48%29%65%52%50%54%
% under line38%46%31%52%71%35%48%50%46%
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)11.411.311.53.02.83.220.318.821.6
vs Stronger (40)11.511.811.23.23.13.320.419.221.4
vs Similar (10)11.09.812.82.32.02.819.617.722.5
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line70%71%69%30%21%38%40%25%54%
% under line30%29%31%70%79%62%60%75%46%
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Alloa
11.6
Inverness CT
11.4
Morton
10.9
Heart Of Midlothian
10.9
Queen of Sth
10.9
Dunfermline
10.8
Ayr
10.3
Raith Rvs
10.3
Dundee
10.1
Arbroath
9.8

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Heart Of Midlothian
4.0
Raith Rvs
3.5
Arbroath
3.4
Dundee
3.4
Ayr
3.1
Dunfermline
3.1
Inverness CT
3.0
Queen of Sth
2.9
Morton
2.9
Alloa
2.7

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
26.7
Dundee
24.9
Arbroath
21.9
Raith Rvs
21.8
Alloa
21.6
Ayr
21.3
Dunfermline
20.4
Inverness CT
20.3
Morton
20.2
Queen of Sth
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
67.1%
Under 9.5
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.0%
Under 3.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
54.1%
Under 21.5
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ArbroathArbroath

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D01L00D20W00D03L00D01L00DH·QUE07/11H·MOR21/11A·DUN05/12H·ALL12/12H·AYR19/12A·DUN26/12A·HEA29/12A·QUE16/01H·DUN22/01A·MOR30/01
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.600.790.430.190.75
vs Stronger (10)0.401.000.600.400.201.60
vs Similar (20)0.500.400.890.440.180.36
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D01L00D10W10W01L10W01L21WA·DUN17/10H·AYR24/10H·ARB31/10A·HEA07/11H·RAI21/11A·QUE04/12H·DUN12/12A·ALL19/12H·DUN29/12A·MOR27/01
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.430.430.430.880.44
vs Stronger (24)0.670.380.450.450.850.31
vs Similar (6)0.670.670.330.331.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ArbroathArbroath

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D00D01L01L01L10W22D10W10WH·QUE07/11H·MOR21/11A·DUN05/12H·ALL12/12H·AYR19/12A·DUN26/12A·HEA29/12A·QUE16/01H·DUN22/01A·MOR30/01
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.530.290.360.560.69
vs Stronger (10)0.300.300.200.600.400.00
vs Similar (20)0.500.650.330.220.641.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L11D30W12L10W20W21W02L10W01LA·DUN17/10H·AYR24/10H·ARB31/10A·HEA07/11H·RAI21/11A·QUE04/12H·DUN12/12A·ALL19/12H·DUN29/12A·MOR27/01
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.831.210.640.441.00
vs Stronger (24)0.790.751.090.550.540.92
vs Similar (6)0.831.171.671.000.001.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards91.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards81.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.580.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners77.8%-------✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls76.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls70.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (30)
€22m
DUN (21)
€5m
DUN (26)
€4m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
Arbroath and Inverness CT have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (12)
€12m
DUN (9)
€2m
DUN (7)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
Arbroath and Inverness CT have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (6)
€4m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
Arbroath and Inverness CT have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (12)
€6m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Arbroath and Inverness CT have a similar defence value (both €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
2
ARB wins
0
Draws
2
IC wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Arbroath vs Inverness CT · H/A from ARB
DateH/AGameScore
31/10/20AInverness CT Vs ARB3-1
28/12/19AInverness CT Vs ARB0-1
09/11/19HARB Vs Inverness CT3-0
10/08/19AInverness CT Vs ARB2-1

ArbroathArbroath

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/01/21AMorton Vs ARB0-1
22/01/21HARB Vs Dundee1-1
16/01/21AQueen of Sth Vs ARB2-2
29/12/20AHeart Of Midlothian Vs ARB3-1
26/12/20ADunfermline Vs ARB1-0
19/12/20HARB Vs Ayr2-1
12/12/20HARB Vs Alloa0-1
05/12/20ADundee Vs ARB1-0
21/11/20HARB Vs Morton0-0
07/11/20HARB Vs Queen of Sth1-1

Inverness CTInverness CT

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/01/21AMorton Vs IC2-2
29/12/20HIC Vs Dunfermline1-1
19/12/20AAlloa Vs IC2-1
12/12/20HIC Vs Dundee2-2
04/12/20AQueen of Sth Vs IC0-3
21/11/20HIC Vs Raith Rvs2-0
07/11/20AHeart Of Midlothian Vs IC2-1
31/10/20HIC Vs Arbroath3-1
24/10/20HIC Vs Ayr1-1
17/10/20ADunfermline Vs IC3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Arbroath
Arbroath
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDDW1.14
HomeDDLWD1.50
AwayLLLDW0.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%38%19%
AVG goals2.021.882.15
Over 1.5 %66%62%69%
Over 2.5 %34%33%35%
Over 3.5 %10%4%15%
Scored0.841.000.69
Conceded1.180.881.46
BTTS44%46%42%
Clean Sheet26%33%19%
Corners9.849.759.92
Cards3.442.923.92
Inverness CT
Inverness CT
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLDD1.62
HomeDWWDD1.88
AwayLLWLD1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%54%42%
AVG goals2.582.672.50
Over 1.5 %78%79%77%
Over 2.5 %50%46%54%
Over 3.5 %26%33%19%
Scored1.421.621.23
Conceded1.161.041.27
BTTS48%50%46%
Clean Sheet36%38%35%
Corners11.4011.3311.46
Cards3.022.793.23

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian2757
63%
2.1
6324+39
3.2
78%
59%
41%
10.1
56%
3.0
41%
25.5
74%
22
12462.30.9
-
2DundeeDundee2745
44%
1.7
4940+9
3.3
89%
63%
44%
10.5
67%
3.0
33%
24.7
67%
5
1221.81.5
-
3
RR
Raith Rvs
2743
44%
1.6
4536+9
3.0
70%
56%
44%
11.2
67%
4.5
74%
23.7
74%
0
0001.71.3
-
4DunfermlineDunfermline2739
37%
1.4
3834+4
2.7
59%
48%
37%
11.1
81%
2.9
33%
22.0
52%
4
2021.41.3
-
5Inverness CTInverness CT2736
30%
1.3
3631+5
2.5
78%
44%
26%
10.4
48%
3.5
48%
24.0
63%
1
0001.31.1
-
6
QO
Queen of Sth
2732
33%
1.2
3851-13
3.3
85%
59%
41%
10.3
56%
3.5
48%
21.8
56%
0
0001.41.9
-
7ArbroathArbroath2730
26%
1.1
2834-6
2.3
59%
37%
26%
9.2
56%
3.4
52%
24.5
67%
1
0001.01.3
-
8
A
Ayr
2729
22%
1.1
3137-6
2.5
74%
41%
30%
10.5
63%
3.1
48%
22.2
52%
0
0001.11.4
-
9MortonMorton2729
22%
1.1
2233-11
2.0
59%
30%
19%
10.4
70%
3.0
41%
22.1
48%
1
0000.81.2
-
10
A
Alloa
2722
19%
0.8
3060-30
3.3
89%
67%
41%
10.6
59%
3.4
56%
26.0
78%
0
0001.12.2
-
Scotland: Championship 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

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