Arbroath’s recent win over Morton gives them a slight lift as they host Livingston, who also just secured a victory against Dunfermline. The model sees a home win as the most likely outcome, with a 38% chance for Arbroath, 31% for a draw and 32% for Livingston. The expected goal total sits at 2.3, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.5% probability. Arbroath, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 0.5 conceded, while Livingston, on the road, averages 0.89 scored and 1.44 conceded.
The model’s selections emphasize low-scoring play. Under 7.5 goals carries a 99.7% chance, Under 6.599.1% with a 6% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals98.8%, Home under 2.5 2H goals97.8% with a 5% edge, Away under 3.5 goals97.5% with an 8% edge, Away under 2.5 HT goals97.1% with a 4% edge, Under 5.597.0% with a 7% edge, and Home under 3.5 goals96.5% with a 5% edge.
Results analysis
Arbroath’s 2-game winning run carried through as they edged Livingston 1-0, confirming the model’s home-win pick. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 38% probability and was right. The match delivered the most likely 1-1 scoreline probability at 14.5% but settled on a 1-0 result, matching the model’s 1-0 most likely score. Every suggested pick hit: Under 7.5 (99.7%) and Under 6.5 (99.1%) both succeeded, as did Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.5%), Under 5.5 (97.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.5%) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.3%). The predictions were remarkably accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Arbroath win✓ Hit
37.5%
Avg Implied 27.5% · @ 3.33
Edge
+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.46
Betfair
3.40
William Hil
3.40
1xBet
3.36
Unibet
3.35
Draw✗ Miss
30.9%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.36
Edge
+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Dafabet
3.45
10Bet
3.45
BetVictor
3.40
Livingston win✗ Miss
31.5%
Avg Implied 45.3% · @ 2.02
Edge
-13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.10
Dafabet
2.08
Pinnacle
2.08
Superbet
2.07
William Hil
2.05
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Arbroath
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.10
1.07
0.87
0.80
1.33
vs Stronger (10)
1.20
1.70
1.25
2.00
1.17
1.50
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.84
1.00
0.50
0.56
1.22
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Livingston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Livingston
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.60
1.75
1.62
0.79
1.57
vs Stronger (8)
1.38
2.38
2.00
2.50
0.75
2.25
vs Similar (20)
1.00
1.45
1.09
1.45
0.89
1.44
vs Weaker (2)
4.00
0.00
8.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.3%
@ 1.25-6.0%
Under 1.5
31.7%
@ 3.60+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.84
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.60
Unibet
3.60
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.4%
@ 1.83-10.5%
Under 2.5
59.6%
@ 1.90+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.87
SBO
1.87
Betfair
1.87
Bet365
1.85
Superbet
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
1.95
10Bet
1.93
Betano
1.93
Betfair
1.90
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.1%
@ 3.04-10.4%
Under 3.5
79.9%
@ 1.33+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.22
BetVictor
3.20
Betfair
3.10
Unibet
3.05
Superbet
3.05
Under
Betano
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.9%
@ 1.68-7.0%
No
52.1%
@ 2.05+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.71
William Hil
1.70
Betano
1.67
Betfair
1.67
No
Betfair
2.15
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.06
William Hil
2.05
BetVictor
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%@ 6.18+7.4%
0-0
11.3%@ 9.73+6.8%
1-0 ✓
10.8%@ 9.94+6.4%
0-1
9.6%@ 7.33+3.6%
2-1
8.0%@ 10.76+3.9%
2-0
7.4%@ 16.75+4.7%
1-2
7.2%@ 7.99+1.7%
0-2
5.9%@ 9.65+1.4%
Arbroath goals ↓
Livingston goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.6%
5.9%
2.2%
0.6%
1
11%
15%
7.2%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.4%
8.0%
4.4%
1.6%
0.4%
3
3.0%
3.2%
1.8%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arbroath goals (down), columns = Livingston goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Partick
1.85
Livingston
1.73
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Inverness CT
0.99
Arbroath is 0.25 points worse than Livingston in terms of average points per game (1.48 vs 1.73).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Livingston
1.52
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr Utd
1.06
Morton
1.00
Queen's Park
0.97
Inverness CT
0.87
Arbroath is 0.27 goals worse than Livingston in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.52).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Livingston
0.91
Partick
0.96
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queen's Park
1.33
Morton
1.38
Inverness CT
1.59
Arbroath is 0.24 goals worse than Livingston in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 0.91).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Arbroath
For 4.6 · Against 3.2 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 12.0 · Total 23.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Livingston
For 4.8 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.4 · Against 10.9 · Total 20.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arbroath
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.0
7.9
8.2
1.1
1.3
1.0
23.7
22.7
24.8
vs Stronger (17)
7.7
6.7
8.5
1.6
1.6
1.6
23.9
21.3
25.8
vs Similar (32)
9.0
10.0
7.5
0.8
1.0
0.6
23.2
23.3
23.0
vs Weaker (1)
5.0
5.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
25.0
25.0
-
% over line
31%
29%
33%
18%
22%
15%
69%
57%
83%
% under line
69%
71%
67%
82%
78%
85%
31%
43%
17%
This opponent (Livingston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Livingston
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.2
10.5
3.4
3.5
3.2
25.4
27.6
23.5
vs Stronger (17)
11.7
12.0
11.4
4.8
4.9
4.6
25.4
26.9
23.9
vs Similar (31)
9.5
8.7
10.2
2.7
2.9
2.5
25.1
28.1
22.6
vs Weaker (2)
6.0
-
6.0
1.5
0.0
3.0
31.0
-
31.0
% over line
56%
50%
62%
50%
56%
44%
72%
83%
62%
% under line
44%
50%
38%
50%
44%
56%
28%
17%
38%
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Morton
10.9
Partick
10.4
Ayr Utd
10.0
Livingston
9.9
Arbroath
9.6
Dunfermline
9.3
Inverness CT
9.1
Queen's Park
9.0
Stenhousemuir
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Morton
4.5
Partick
4.4
Livingston
4.2
Ayr Utd
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Arbroath
3.6
Inverness CT
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
Queen's Park
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
25.4
Livingston
25.3
Ayr Utd
22.0
Morton
21.6
Inverness CT
21.6
Arbroath
20.9
Dunfermline
20.7
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
39.3%
@ 1.85-10.6%
Under 9.5
60.7%
@ 1.84+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
1xBet
1.88
Betano
1.87
Marathonbet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Under
Unibet
1.88
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
62.1%
Under 3.5
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
57.0%
Under 21.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Arbroath or Draw✓ Hit
68.5%
Avg Implied 54.4% · @ 1.70
Edge
+14.1%
38%
31%
32%
covers Arbroath + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.77
William Hil
1.73
Betfair
1.73
BetVictor
1.70
Arbroath or Livingston✓ Hit
69.1%
Avg Implied 73.2% · @ 1.26
Edge
-4.2%
38%
31%
32%
covers Arbroath + Livingston
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Draw or Livingston✗ Miss
62.5%
Avg Implied 72.4% · @ 1.28
Edge
-9.9%
38%
31%
32%
covers Draw + Livingston
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.33
Betfair
1.30
William Hil
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Arbroath over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.2%
@ 1.36+2.5%
Under
29.8%
@ 2.86-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Under
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
3.00
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.87
Arbroath over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.2%
@ 2.79+1.0%
Under
65.8%
@ 1.39-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.97
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.80
Superbet
2.77
Under
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Arbroath over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.3%
@ 6.66-1.6%
Under
87.7%
@ 1.07+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Superbet
6.60
1xBet
6.55
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Betfair
1.07
Arbroath over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.5%
@ 11.00-5.0%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.02+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Livingston over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
66.4%
@ 1.20-10.9%
Under
33.6%
@ 4.08+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Under
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.33
10Bet
4.20
1xBet
4.15
Unibet
4.10
Livingston over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
29.7%
@ 1.99-17.0%
Under
70.3%
@ 1.74+17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.04
Superbet
2.02
BetVictor
2.00
Betano
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Under
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.76
1xBet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Livingston over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.7%
@ 4.13-12.6%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.19+12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.15
Betano
4.00
Under
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Livingston over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 8.67-8.3%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.05+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
8.50
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Arbroath, so a minus line means Arbroath give that many goals of a start and Livingston receive them. At -1, Arbroath must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Arbroath win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Arbroath)Actual: Livingston
Arbroath -2
5.6%
@ 17.00+0.1%
Draw -2
11.2%
@ 10.00+1.9%
Livingston +2
83.2%
@ 1.09-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
17.00
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Away
Bet365
1.09
Handicap -1 (Arbroath)Actual: Draw
Arbroath -1
16.8%
@ 6.81+3.9%
Draw -1
20.8%
@ 4.83+2.6%
Livingston +1
62.5%
@ 1.27-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.75
Bet365
6.50
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.70
Away
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.24
Handicap +1 (Arbroath)Actual: Arbroath
Arbroath +1
68.5%
@ 1.69+16.3%
Draw +1
18.6%
@ 3.72-5.1%
Livingston -1
13.0%
@ 3.63-11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.77
Unibet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Bet365
1.60
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.65
Unibet
3.55
Away
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.60
Unibet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.50
Handicap +2 (Arbroath)Actual: Arbroath
Arbroath +2
87.0%
@ 1.22+14.4%
Draw +2
9.0%
@ 5.68-6.6%
Livingston -2
3.9%
@ 7.57-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.65
Unibet
5.40
Away
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.20
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arbroath
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.47
0.40
0.27
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.33
vs Similar (19)
0.42
0.47
0.40
0.10
0.44
0.89
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Livingston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Livingston
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.75
0.94
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.38
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.80
0.36
0.82
0.44
0.78
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
66.6%
@ 1.36-1.6%
Under 0.5
33.4%
@ 2.91+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.38
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.11
William Hil
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
10Bet
2.90
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
29.2%
@ 2.65-5.7%
Under 1.5
70.8%
@ 1.42+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.81
Betano
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Superbet
2.67
10Bet
2.65
Under
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
William Hil
1.44
BetVictor
1.43
Pinnacle
1.43
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.0%
@ 6.44-3.4%
Under 2.5
89.0%
@ 1.08+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
William Hil
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.30
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
43.4%
@ 2.29+3.0%
Under
56.6%
@ 1.55-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.39
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Marathonbet
2.25
Under
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Superbet
1.55
Arbroath over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.8%
@ 7.65-2.3%
Under
90.2%
@ 1.05+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.80
1xBet
7.80
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Arbroath over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
46.2%
@ 1.85-3.7%
Under
53.8%
@ 1.85+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.87
Superbet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
Unibet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
Betano
1.83
Livingston over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.5%
@ 5.24-6.1%
Under
88.5%
@ 1.12+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.25
1xBet
5.25
Betano
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Livingston over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 13.12-4.6%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
15.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arbroath
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.63
0.67
0.60
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.20
0.75
1.25
0.67
1.17
vs Similar (19)
0.37
0.37
0.60
0.40
0.11
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Livingston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Livingston
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
1.00
0.69
0.36
0.71
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.65
0.73
0.64
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.0%
@ 1.21-1.4%
Under 0.5
25.0%
@ 3.90+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Under
Betano
4.05
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
4.00
1xBet
3.82
Marathonbet
3.82
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
38.9%
@ 2.01-7.2%
Under 1.5
61.1%
@ 1.72+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.07
William Hil
2.05
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
Betano
2.00
Under
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.5%
@ 4.21-6.5%
Under 2.5
84.5%
@ 1.18+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.30
1xBet
4.05
Marathonbet
4.05
Under
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
47.0%
@ 1.89-1.8%
Under
53.0%
@ 1.80+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.92
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
10Bet
1.85
Under
Betano
1.85
10Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.79
Superbet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
Arbroath over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.4%
@ 5.49-4.4%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.11+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.70
Marathonbet
5.65
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.10
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Arbroath over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 15.00-2.6%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Livingston over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
53.2%
@ 1.60-4.7%
Under
46.8%
@ 2.20+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.66
Superbet
1.62
1xBet
1.59
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Under
Betano
2.30
10Bet
2.30
1xBet
2.22
Superbet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.04
Livingston over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.7%
@ 3.73-5.0%
Under
80.3%
@ 1.22+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Betano
3.65
Under
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Livingston over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.7%
@ 9.20-4.4%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.03+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.60
10Bet
9.50
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.5%
1.05
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
+8.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.0%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.5%
1.02
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.3%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
91.6%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Pinnacle
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.3%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
+12.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.2%
1.05
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.0%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.5%
1.12
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
-
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Betfair
1.07
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
87.6%
1.11
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.0%
1.22
Unibet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
-
-
+14.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.5%
1.18
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
83.2%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
81.7%
1.30
Superbet
1.36
Unibet
1.33
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
+11.3%
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.3%
1.22
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.9%
1.33
Betano
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
+10.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.0%
1.21
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
72.4%
1.51
Superbet
1.55
Unibet
1.54
Pinnacle
1.52
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.49
+11.4%
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.8%
1.42
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
William Hil
1.44
BetVictor
1.43
Pinnacle
1.43
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
70.3%
1.74
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.76
1xBet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
+17.0%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
70.2%
1.36
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
+2.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Livingston · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jeremy Bokila22%
Connor McLennan19%
Lewis Smith17%
Robbie Muirhead15%
Graham Carey14%
Scott Pittman14%
Brooklyn Kabongolo12%
Tete Yengi11%
Jon Nouble10%
Stevie May6%
Mahamadou Susoho6%
Cristian Montaño4%
Mohammad Sylla3%
Danny Wilson3%
Joshua Brenet0%
Scott Arfield0%
Barrie McKay0%
Andrew Shinnie0%
Shane Blaney0%
Andy Winter0%
Cammy Kerr0%
Ryan McGowan0%
Alex Matthias Tamm0%
Jérôme Prior0%
Danny Finlayson0%
Joshua Zimmerman0%
Emmanuel Danso0%
Babacar Fati0%
Adam Montgomery0%
Macaulay Tait0%
Samson Lawal0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Connor McLennan38%
Mahamadou Susoho33%
Cristian Montaño27%
Adam Montgomery25%
Macaulay Tait24%
Emmanuel Danso23%
Danny Finlayson23%
Jeremy Bokila22%
Robbie Muirhead21%
Brooklyn Kabongolo19%
Stevie May18%
Ryan McGowan17%
Babacar Fati17%
Mohammad Sylla16%
Graham Carey14%
Scott Pittman14%
Joshua Zimmerman14%
Samson Lawal13%
Scott Arfield12%
Jérôme Prior11%
Cammy Kerr9%
Lewis Smith6%
Tete Yengi5%
Danny Wilson3%
Joshua Brenet0%
Barrie McKay0%
Andrew Shinnie0%
Shane Blaney0%
Andy Winter0%
Alex Matthias Tamm0%
Jon Nouble0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Barrie McKay29%
Jon Nouble20%
Graham Carey14%
Adam Montgomery12%
Cristian Montaño12%
Macaulay Tait9%
Emmanuel Danso8%
Joshua Brenet7%
Robbie Muirhead6%
Stevie May6%
Scott Pittman6%
Lewis Smith6%
Ryan McGowan4%
Danny Finlayson3%
Jérôme Prior3%
Scott Arfield0%
Jeremy Bokila0%
Mohammad Sylla0%
Andrew Shinnie0%
Shane Blaney0%
Connor McLennan0%
Andy Winter0%
Cammy Kerr0%
Danny Wilson0%
Alex Matthias Tamm0%
Joshua Zimmerman0%
Babacar Fati0%
Tete Yengi0%
Mahamadou Susoho0%
Samson Lawal0%
Brooklyn Kabongolo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tete Yengi11%
Jon Nouble10%
Robbie Muirhead9%
Stevie May9%
Connor McLennan6%
Brooklyn Kabongolo6%
Lewis Smith6%
Cristian Montaño4%
Joshua Brenet0%
Scott Arfield0%
Jeremy Bokila0%
Mohammad Sylla0%
Barrie McKay0%
Andrew Shinnie0%
Shane Blaney0%
Graham Carey0%
Scott Pittman0%
Andy Winter0%
Cammy Kerr0%
Ryan McGowan0%
Danny Wilson0%
Alex Matthias Tamm0%
Jérôme Prior0%
Danny Finlayson0%
Joshua Zimmerman0%
Emmanuel Danso0%
Babacar Fati0%
Adam Montgomery0%
Mahamadou Susoho0%
Macaulay Tait0%
Samson Lawal0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
STE (2)
€0m
Arbroath's squad is €3m less valuable than Livingston's (€1m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (9)
€2m
LIV (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
Arbroath's attack is €1m less valuable than Livingston's (€0m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
Arbroath's midfield is €1m less valuable than Livingston's (€0m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Arbroath's defence is €1m less valuable than Livingston's (€0m vs €1m).
Scotland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stenhousemuir
Partick
Raith Rovers
Ayr Utd
Dunfermline
Inverness CT
Morton
Queen's Park