Arbroath are the favoured side, with a 48% chance of victory, a 29% chance of a draw and a 24% chance of Morton winning. The model expects 2.5 goals on average, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.6% probability. Arbroath, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 1.0 goal scored and 0.45 conceded, while Morton, on the road, average 1.08 scored and 2.23 conceded. The suggested selections are Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.2%), Under 5.5 (96.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.3%), Home +2 handicap (91.1%) and Under 4.5 (89.5%). Arbroath’s recent form shows a two-game winning run, while Morton has just drawn, both against teams of similar strength.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Arbroath win
48.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Morton win
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Arbroath
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.03
1.06
0.81
0.64
1.29
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
1.67
1.25
2.00
0.80
1.40
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.80
1.00
0.45
0.56
1.22
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Morton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.67
0.71
0.86
1.00
2.38
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
0.92
1.58
0.77
0.92
1.08
2.23
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.1%
Under 1.5
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
45.2%
Under 2.5
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
23.9%
Under 3.5
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.6%
No
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0
11.4%
0-0
9.6%
2-0
9.6%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
6.9%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
4.8%
Arbroath goals ↓
Morton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.6%
6.9%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.9%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.6%
9.3%
4.5%
1.5%
0.4%
3
4.8%
4.7%
2.3%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.8%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arbroath goals (down), columns = Morton goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Partick
1.85
Livingston
1.73
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Inverness CT
0.99
Arbroath is 0.44 points better than Morton in terms of average points per game (1.48 vs 1.04).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Livingston
1.52
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Arbroath
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr Utd
1.06
Morton
1.00
Queen's Park
0.97
Inverness CT
0.87
Arbroath is 0.25 goals better than Morton in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Livingston
0.91
Partick
0.96
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queen's Park
1.33
Morton
1.38
Inverness CT
1.59
Arbroath is 0.23 goals better than Morton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Arbroath
For 4.6 · Against 3.4 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 11.6 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Morton
For 5.0 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 11.1 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arbroath
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.6
7.8
7.4
1.0
1.1
0.9
23.9
22.0
26.2
vs Stronger (15)
7.0
6.7
7.3
1.6
1.8
1.4
24.8
21.3
28.3
vs Similar (33)
9.2
11.0
7.5
0.6
0.7
0.6
22.2
21.5
23.0
vs Weaker (2)
5.0
5.0
-
1.5
3.0
0.0
25.0
25.0
-
% over line
27%
33%
20%
16%
17%
15%
73%
50%
100%
% under line
73%
67%
80%
84%
83%
85%
27%
50%
0%
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Morton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.8
10.0
0.7
0.6
0.8
23.1
23.6
22.6
vs Stronger (3)
10.3
9.0
11.0
4.3
8.0
2.5
22.7
29.0
19.5
vs Similar (45)
9.7
10.0
9.3
0.5
0.3
0.7
23.3
22.2
24.7
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
60%
60%
60%
6%
4%
8%
60%
60%
60%
% under line
40%
40%
40%
94%
96%
92%
40%
40%
40%
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Morton
10.9
Partick
10.4
Ayr Utd
10.0
Livingston
9.9
Arbroath
9.6
Dunfermline
9.3
Inverness CT
9.1
Queen's Park
9.0
Stenhousemuir
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Morton
4.5
Partick
4.4
Livingston
4.2
Ayr Utd
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Arbroath
3.6
Inverness CT
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
Queen's Park
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
25.4
Livingston
25.3
Ayr Utd
22.0
Morton
21.6
Inverness CT
21.6
Arbroath
20.9
Dunfermline
20.7
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
42.3%
Under 9.5
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
62.2%
Under 3.5
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
52.5%
Under 21.5
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Arbroath or Draw
77.0%
Avg Implied -
49%
28%
23%
covers Arbroath + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arbroath or Morton
71.6%
Avg Implied -
49%
28%
23%
covers Arbroath + Morton
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Morton
51.4%
Avg Implied -
49%
28%
23%
covers Draw + Morton
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Arbroath over/under 0.5
Over
78.0%
Under
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5
Over
44.6%
Under
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5
Over
19.4%
Under
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 3.5
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 0.5
Over
62.1%
Under
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5
Over
25.3%
Under
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 3.5
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Arbroath, so a minus line means Arbroath give that many goals of a start and Morton receive them. At -1, Arbroath must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Arbroath win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Arbroath)
Arbroath -2
10.2%
Draw -2
15.2%
Morton +2
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Arbroath)
Arbroath -1
25.4%
Draw -1
23.2%
Morton +1
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Arbroath)
Arbroath +1
77.0%
Draw +1
14.5%
Morton -1
8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Arbroath)
Arbroath +2
91.4%
Draw +2
6.2%
Morton -2
2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arbroath
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.47
0.38
0.25
0.36
0.71
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
0.56
0.50
0.75
0.20
0.40
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.45
0.36
0.09
0.44
0.89
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Morton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.36
0.36
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.50
0.38
0.38
0.69
0.62
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arbroath
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.69
0.56
0.29
0.57
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.11
0.75
1.25
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.35
0.64
0.36
0.11
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Morton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.17
0.36
0.50
0.38
1.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
0.38
1.08
0.38
0.54
0.38
1.62
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
STE (2)
€0m
Arbroath and Morton have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (9)
€2m
LIV (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
Arbroath and Morton have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
Arbroath and Morton have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Arbroath and Morton have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stenhousemuir
Partick
Raith Rovers
Livingston
Ayr Utd
Dunfermline
Inverness CT
Queen's Park