Arda Kardzhali are tipped to win, a 52% chance against Botev Plovdiv’s 19% and a 29% draw. The match is expected to see about 2.3 goals, with the most likely total of two goals. The single most probable scoreline is 1-0 for the home side, a 14.1% probability. Arda’s home form shows they average 1.36 goals scored and 0.82 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Botev’s away numbers are 0.92 scored and 0.75 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.3%), Under 6.5 (99.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.1% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.3% with a 6% edge), Under 5.5 (97.2% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.8% with a 5% edge), and Away under 2.5 goals (95.3% with a 6% edge). The home side’s recent four-game winning streak and a 2-0 victory over Botev Vratsa contrast with Botev’s three straight defeats and a 1-3 loss to Levski Sofia, underscoring Arda’s advantage.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Arda Kardzhali win
51.6%
Avg Implied 45.9% · @ 2.01
Edge
+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.10
Unibet
2.08
SBO
2.06
Superbet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
Draw
29.1%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.18
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.33
Superbet
3.25
Unibet
3.25
Dafabet
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Botev Plovdiv win
19.3%
Avg Implied 25.2% · @ 3.65
Edge
-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.20
Pinnacle
3.96
Dafabet
3.95
1xBet
3.79
Marathonbet
3.72
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Arda Kardzhali
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.80
1.50
0.57
1.25
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.80
0.50
1.50
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.48
0.61
1.64
0.45
1.33
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Botev Plovdiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Botev Plovdiv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.27
1.80
1.13
0.93
1.40
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
2.33
1.50
2.00
0.75
2.50
vs Similar (24)
1.46
1.00
1.85
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Arda Kardzhali) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.1%
@ 1.33-2.4%
Under 1.5
32.9%
@ 3.05+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Under
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.10
BetVictor
3.10
Pinnacle
3.10
Unibet
3.10
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.3%
@ 2.08-5.6%
Under 2.5
60.7%
@ 1.69+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.18
1xBet
2.11
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.09
Under
Betano
1.72
SBO
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.2%
@ 3.71-5.8%
Under 3.5
80.8%
@ 1.24+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.93
BetVictor
3.90
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Under
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Both teams to score
Yes
43.4%
@ 1.84-6.8%
No
56.6%
@ 1.85+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
No
Betfair
1.91
Betano
1.90
Superbet
1.87
Unibet
1.86
William Hil
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.1%@ 6.11+7.0%
1-1
13.4%@ 5.60+5.7%
0-0
11.7%@ 7.98+6.3%
2-0
11.1%@ 8.55+6.1%
2-1
8.9%@ 7.82+3.4%
0-1
7.1%@ 8.81+2.2%
3-0
5.4%@ 16.52+2.8%
1-2
4.9%@ 11.36+1.1%
Arda Kardzhali goals ↓
Botev Plovdiv goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
7.1%
3.3%
0.9%
0.2%
1
14%
13%
4.9%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
8.9%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
3
5.4%
4.3%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.0%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arda Kardzhali goals (down), columns = Botev Plovdiv goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Levski Sofia
3.00
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.50
Ludogorets
2.43
Arda Kardzhali
2.29
Spartak Varna
1.17
Septemvri Sofia
1.14
Botev Plovdiv
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Dunav Ruse
0.57
Cherno More Varna
0.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
0.50
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Arda Kardzhali is 1.29 points better than Botev Plovdiv in terms of average points per game (2.29 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levski Sofia
2.86
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.17
Ludogorets
1.71
Arda Kardzhali
1.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.17
Spartak Varna
1.17
Botev Plovdiv
1.14
Cherno More Varna
1.14
Dunav Ruse
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Septemvri Sofia
0.71
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Arda Kardzhali is 0.43 goals better than Botev Plovdiv in terms of goals scored per game (1.57 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arda Kardzhali
0.57
Levski Sofia
0.57
CSKA Sofia
0.67
Ludogorets
0.71
CSKA 1948
0.83
Slavia Sofia
0.86
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.43
Septemvri Sofia
1.43
Botev Plovdiv
1.71
Spartak Varna
1.83
Lokomotiv Sofia
2.00
Dunav Ruse
2.00
Botev Vratsa
2.14
Cherno More Varna
2.29
Arda Kardzhali is 1.14 goals better than Botev Plovdiv in terms of goals conceded per game (0.57 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Levski Sofia
63%
Slavia Sofia
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Arda Kardzhali
For 4.1 · Against 3.7 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 12.3 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Botev Plovdiv
For 4.6 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 12.0 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arda Kardzhali
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
9.2
7.6
2.9
3.0
2.7
24.7
23.9
25.5
vs Stronger (9)
9.5
9.3
9.7
3.6
4.6
2.2
23.7
24.3
23.0
vs Similar (38)
8.4
9.2
7.6
2.7
2.7
2.8
24.4
23.8
25.1
vs Weaker (3)
2.0
-
2.0
2.7
2.0
4.0
37.0
-
37.0
% over line
35%
38%
31%
46%
44%
48%
77%
69%
85%
% under line
65%
62%
69%
54%
56%
52%
23%
31%
15%
This opponent (Botev Plovdiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Botev Plovdiv
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.3
9.9
2.7
3.3
2.2
21.9
22.9
20.9
vs Stronger (11)
9.7
8.3
11.0
3.1
4.2
2.2
22.2
22.7
21.7
vs Similar (39)
9.5
9.5
9.5
2.6
3.0
2.2
21.8
22.9
20.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
50%
50%
36%
44%
28%
64%
71%
57%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
64%
56%
72%
36%
29%
43%
This opponent (Arda Kardzhali) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Sofia
10.6
Botev Plovdiv
10.1
Spartak Varna
10.0
CSKA Sofia
9.6
Levski Sofia
9.5
CSKA 1948
9.4
Ludogorets
9.4
Lokomotiv Sofia
9.4
Botev Vratsa
9.4
Septemvri Sofia
9.1
Cherno More Varna
9.0
Arda Kardzhali
8.7
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arda Kardzhali
5.2
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5.0
Septemvri Sofia
5.0
Botev Vratsa
4.8
Spartak Varna
4.8
CSKA Sofia
4.8
Ludogorets
4.8
Cherno More Varna
4.7
Slavia Sofia
4.7
Levski Sofia
4.6
Botev Plovdiv
4.5
Dunav Ruse
4.5
CSKA 1948
4.2
Lokomotiv Sofia
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cherno More Varna
25.1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
25.0
Botev Vratsa
24.7
Levski Sofia
24.5
Arda Kardzhali
24.4
Slavia Sofia
23.9
Lokomotiv Sofia
23.9
Septemvri Sofia
22.8
CSKA 1948
22.7
Spartak Varna
22.7
CSKA Sofia
22.6
Botev Plovdiv
22.4
Ludogorets
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
44.8%
@ 2.20+2.8%
Under 9.5
55.2%
@ 1.60-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
1xBet
2.19
Marathonbet
2.15
Pinnacle
2.15
Unibet
2.08
Under
Pinnacle
1.65
Unibet
1.64
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.58
Betano
1.52
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
64.2%
Under 3.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
55.6%
Under 21.5
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Arda Kardzhali or Draw
80.7%
Avg Implied 74.8% · @ 1.24
Edge
+5.9%
52%
29%
19%
covers Arda Kardzhali + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.32
BetVictor
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Unibet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Arda Kardzhali or Botev Plovdiv
70.9%
Avg Implied 71.4% · @ 1.30
Edge
-0.5%
52%
29%
19%
covers Arda Kardzhali + Botev Plovdiv
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Draw or Botev Plovdiv
48.4%
Avg Implied 53.8% · @ 1.72
Edge
-5.4%
52%
29%
19%
covers Draw + Botev Plovdiv
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.73
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Arda Kardzhali over/under 0.5
Over
76.8%
@ 1.22+1.2%
Under
23.2%
@ 3.77-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.01
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
BetVictor
3.80
1xBet
3.80
Arda Kardzhali over/under 1.5
Over
42.9%
@ 2.15-0.2%
Under
57.1%
@ 1.63+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.22
Betfair
2.20
BetVictor
2.20
Betano
2.20
Marathonbet
2.17
Under
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
1xBet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
Superbet
1.64
Arda Kardzhali over/under 2.5
Over
18.1%
@ 4.74-1.4%
Under
81.9%
@ 1.15+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.70
Under
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Betfair
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Arda Kardzhali over/under 3.5
Over
6.1%
@ 10.67-2.8%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.04+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Botev Plovdiv over/under 0.5
Over
55.0%
@ 1.47-8.2%
Under
45.0%
@ 2.51+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.52
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.50
BetVictor
1.47
Betano
1.47
Under
Betfair
2.63
Betano
2.57
Pinnacle
2.55
Superbet
2.52
Unibet
2.50
Botev Plovdiv over/under 1.5
Over
19.0%
@ 3.27-9.3%
Under
81.0%
@ 1.29+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.62
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
Betfair
3.25
Under
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.31
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Botev Plovdiv over/under 2.5
Over
4.7%
@ 9.20-5.4%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.04+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
9.70
Marathonbet
9.70
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
8.10
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Botev Plovdiv over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
@ 20.50-3.8%
Under
99.1%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Arda Kardzhali, so a minus line means Arda Kardzhali give that many goals of a start and Botev Plovdiv receive them. At -1, Arda Kardzhali must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Arda Kardzhali win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Arda Kardzhali)
Arda Kardzhali -2
10.6%
@ 8.50+0.1%
Draw -2
16.2%
@ 5.81+0.7%
Botev Plovdiv +2
73.3%
@ 1.21-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
9.00
Unibet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Draw
Marathonbet
6.15
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
5.60
Bet365
5.50
Away
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Betfair
1.17
Handicap -1 (Arda Kardzhali)
Arda Kardzhali -1
26.7%
@ 3.74+2.9%
Draw -1
24.8%
@ 3.58-0.1%
Botev Plovdiv +1
48.4%
@ 1.74-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Bet365
3.60
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
10Bet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Away
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Betfair
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Unibet
1.68
Handicap +1 (Arda Kardzhali)
Arda Kardzhali +1
80.7%
@ 1.24+7.9%
Draw +1
13.0%
@ 5.38-3.8%
Botev Plovdiv -1
6.3%
@ 8.73-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.40
Unibet
4.75
Away
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
8.70
Unibet
7.50
Handicap +2 (Arda Kardzhali)
Arda Kardzhali +2
93.7%
@ 1.05+4.5%
Draw +2
4.8%
@ 13.00-2.4%
Botev Plovdiv -2
1.4%
@ 26.00-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Away
Bet365
26.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arda Kardzhali
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.30
0.79
0.29
0.56
0.31
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.60
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.26
0.91
0.27
0.50
0.25
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Botev Plovdiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Botev Plovdiv
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.47
0.73
0.27
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.62
0.42
0.85
0.31
0.36
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Arda Kardzhali) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.2%
@ 1.43+1.4%
Under 0.5
33.8%
@ 2.64-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
BetVictor
1.45
Pinnacle
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.77
Betfair
2.75
William Hil
2.70
Unibet
2.65
Superbet
2.65
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.2%
@ 3.02+1.4%
Under 1.5
67.8%
@ 1.34-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.23
Betano
3.10
William Hil
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Under
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.35
BetVictor
1.35
Superbet
1.35
William Hil
1.35
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.8%
@ 8.09-0.7%
Under 2.5
89.2%
@ 1.05+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
BetVictor
9.00
William Hil
8.50
1xBet
8.10
Betfair
8.00
Under
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arda Kardzhali over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.4%
@ 1.95+3.6%
Under
48.6%
@ 1.78-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
1.97
Marathonbet
1.94
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.91
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
1xBet
1.80
Superbet
1.78
Unibet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.75
Arda Kardzhali over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.8%
@ 6.17+1.7%
Under
83.2%
@ 1.09-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.30
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Arda Kardzhali over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.1%
@ 11.75-4.9%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.02+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Botev Plovdiv over/under 0.5 HT
Over
33.8%
@ 2.53-2.9%
Under
66.2%
@ 1.46+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.73
Marathonbet
2.55
Superbet
2.52
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.50
Under
Betano
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Superbet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
Botev Plovdiv over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.4%
@ 9.55-3.4%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.03+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.00
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
Botev Plovdiv over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arda Kardzhali
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.71
0.29
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.20
0.00
1.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.35
0.73
0.18
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Botev Plovdiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Botev Plovdiv
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.80
1.07
0.87
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.67
1.50
2.00
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.58
1.00
0.69
0.64
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Arda Kardzhali) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.8%
@ 1.27+2.7%
Under 0.5
24.2%
@ 3.45-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.24
Under
Betano
3.60
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.44
Marathonbet
3.44
Superbet
3.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.2%
@ 2.25-1.0%
Under 1.5
59.8%
@ 1.58+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.31
Marathonbet
2.29
Superbet
2.27
Bet365
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Under
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Superbet
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.0%
@ 5.10-2.1%
Under 2.5
84.0%
@ 1.13+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.20
Superbet
5.00
William Hil
5.00
Under
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.12
1xBet
1.10
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arda Kardzhali over/under 0.5 2H
Over
60.8%
@ 1.66+5.0%
Under
39.2%
@ 2.09-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.67
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
Under
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
Superbet
2.07
Arda Kardzhali over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.9%
@ 4.25+0.0%
Under
78.1%
@ 1.19-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.20
Betano
4.10
Under
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Arda Kardzhali over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.9%
@ 9.25-5.2%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.04+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Botev Plovdiv over/under 0.5 2H
Over
38.9%
@ 2.10-5.3%
Under
61.1%
@ 1.66+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.11
Superbet
2.10
Betano
2.02
Under
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.61
Botev Plovdiv over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.4%
@ 6.90-4.1%
Under
90.6%
@ 1.07+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.60
1xBet
7.30
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.11
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Botev Plovdiv over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.9%
@ 11.75-6.1%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.02+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.8%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.1%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.1%
Under 5.5
97.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+3.1%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.9%
Away under 2.5 goals
95.3%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.01
+5.4%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.1%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.2%
Home under 3.5 goals
93.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+2.8%
Home +2 handicap
93.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+4.5%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.6%
1.03
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
+3.4%
Under 4.5
92.1%
1.06
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Superbet
1.07
BetVictor
1.05
+4.5%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.6%
1.07
Betano
1.11
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
-
+4.1%
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.2%
1.05
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
+0.7%
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.0%
1.13
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.12
1xBet
1.10
+2.1%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.2%
1.09
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
-
-
-1.7%
Home under 2.5 goals
81.9%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Betfair
1.14
1xBet
1.14
+1.4%
Over 2.5 cards
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
81.0%
1.29
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.31
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.29
+9.3%
Under 3.5
80.8%
1.24
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+5.8%
Home or Draw
80.7%
1.24
Betano
1.32
BetVictor
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Unibet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
+5.9%
Home +1 handicap
80.7%
1.24
Unibet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
-
-
+7.9%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.1%
1.19
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
-
-
-0.0%
Under 11.5 corners
77.6%
1.18
Unibet
1.23
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-0.4%
Home over 0.5 goals
76.8%
1.22
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
+1.2%
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.8%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.24
+2.7%
Under 25.5 fouls
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
73.3%
1.21
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Betfair
1.17
-
-0.8%
Under 5.5 cards
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.9%
1.30
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
-0.5%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Arda Kardzhali · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ivelin Popov30%
Birsent Karagaren28%
Antonio Vutov27%
Wilson Samaké18%
Dimitar Velkovski17%
Isnaba Mané17%
Andre Shinyashiki12%
Atanas Kabov6%
Idowu David Akintola6%
Gustavo Cascardo5%
Patrick Luan5%
Svetoslav Kovachev5%
Félix Eboa Eboa4%
Serkan Yussein4%
Anatoli Gospodinov0%
Lachezar Kotev0%
Martin Paskalev0%
Ivan Tilev0%
Plamen Krachunov0%
Vyacheslav Velev0%
Emil Viyachki0%
Jalal Huseynov0%
Georgi Nikolov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dimitar Velkovski33%
Gustavo Cascardo30%
Svetoslav Kovachev29%
Idowu David Akintola28%
Georgi Nikolov22%
Wilson Samaké18%
Félix Eboa Eboa17%
Emil Viyachki17%
Isnaba Mané17%
Lachezar Kotev13%
Martin Paskalev12%
Atanas Kabov12%
Ivelin Popov10%
Patrick Luan10%
Antonio Vutov9%
Vyacheslav Velev9%
Serkan Yussein8%
Anatoli Gospodinov8%
Birsent Karagaren8%
Andre Shinyashiki6%
Jalal Huseynov5%
Ivan Tilev0%
Plamen Krachunov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lachezar Kotev17%
Isnaba Mané17%
Svetoslav Kovachev14%
Atanas Kabov12%
Andre Shinyashiki12%
Ivan Tilev11%
Gustavo Cascardo10%
Birsent Karagaren8%
Patrick Luan5%
Antonio Vutov5%
Serkan Yussein4%
Anatoli Gospodinov0%
Dimitar Velkovski0%
Martin Paskalev0%
Félix Eboa Eboa0%
Plamen Krachunov0%
Ivelin Popov0%
Vyacheslav Velev0%
Emil Viyachki0%
Idowu David Akintola0%
Jalal Huseynov0%
Georgi Nikolov0%
Wilson Samaké0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Georgi Nikolov22%
Andre Shinyashiki12%
Ivelin Popov10%
Birsent Karagaren8%
Dimitar Velkovski6%
Idowu David Akintola6%
Patrick Luan5%
Vyacheslav Velev5%
Serkan Yussein0%
Atanas Kabov0%
Antonio Vutov0%
Anatoli Gospodinov0%
Lachezar Kotev0%
Martin Paskalev0%
Ivan Tilev0%
Svetoslav Kovachev0%
Félix Eboa Eboa0%
Plamen Krachunov0%
Gustavo Cascardo0%
Emil Viyachki0%
Jalal Huseynov0%
Isnaba Mané0%
Wilson Samaké0%
Botev Plovdiv · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Armstrong Oko-Flex50%
Franklin Mascote32%
Pedro Igor25%
Dimitar Mitkov17%
Nikolay Minkov15%
Carlos Algarra López11%
Edson Silva11%
Samuil Tsonov9%
Enock Kwateng8%
Lucas Araujo7%
Samuel Kalu6%
Ivaylo Videv6%
Nikola Soldo6%
Todor Nedelev5%
Daniel Naumov0%
Konstantinos Balogiannis0%
Tailson0%
Andrey Yordanov0%
Stivan Petkov0%
Ivelin Popov0%
Emil Martinov0%
Antoine Conte0%
Simeon Petrov0%
Emerson Rodríguez0%
Nikola Iliev0%
Henrique Jocu0%
Bryan-Anthony Chibuike Hein0%
Gabriel Noga0%
Emmanuel John0%
Aleksa Maraš0%
Abraham Emmanuel Ojo0%
Williams Chimezie Oluebube0%
Emmanuel Abraham0%
Zakaria Tindano0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Edson Silva56%
Antoine Conte43%
Abraham Emmanuel Ojo38%
Dimitar Mitkov33%
Andrey Yordanov30%
Konstantinos Balogiannis25%
Gabriel Noga25%
Ivaylo Videv25%
Enock Kwateng23%
Carlos Algarra López22%
Lucas Araujo21%
Nikola Iliev21%
Simeon Petrov20%
Samuil Tsonov18%
Nikola Soldo18%
Emil Martinov17%
Aleksa Maraš14%
Armstrong Oko-Flex12%
Samuel Kalu12%
Stivan Petkov12%
Pedro Igor12%
Nikolay Minkov10%
Todor Nedelev5%
Daniel Naumov5%
Tailson0%
Franklin Mascote0%
Ivelin Popov0%
Emerson Rodríguez0%
Henrique Jocu0%
Bryan-Anthony Chibuike Hein0%
Emmanuel John0%
Williams Chimezie Oluebube0%
Emmanuel Abraham0%
Zakaria Tindano0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Armstrong Oko-Flex25%
Zakaria Tindano20%
Aleksa Maraš14%
Konstantinos Balogiannis12%
Henrique Jocu11%
Todor Nedelev11%
Nikola Iliev11%
Nikolay Minkov10%
Emerson Rodríguez10%
Samuel Kalu6%
Nikola Soldo6%
Daniel Naumov0%
Tailson0%
Andrey Yordanov0%
Enock Kwateng0%
Stivan Petkov0%
Franklin Mascote0%
Ivelin Popov0%
Dimitar Mitkov0%
Emil Martinov0%
Antoine Conte0%
Simeon Petrov0%
Carlos Algarra López0%
Bryan-Anthony Chibuike Hein0%
Lucas Araujo0%
Gabriel Noga0%
Edson Silva0%
Emmanuel John0%
Pedro Igor0%
Ivaylo Videv0%
Abraham Emmanuel Ojo0%
Samuil Tsonov0%
Williams Chimezie Oluebube0%
Emmanuel Abraham0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Samuel Kalu12%
Abraham Emmanuel Ojo12%
Todor Nedelev11%
Franklin Mascote11%
Emerson Rodríguez10%
Lucas Araujo7%
Konstantinos Balogiannis6%
Nikola Soldo6%
Nikolay Minkov5%
Daniel Naumov0%
Armstrong Oko-Flex0%
Tailson0%
Andrey Yordanov0%
Enock Kwateng0%
Stivan Petkov0%
Ivelin Popov0%
Dimitar Mitkov0%
Emil Martinov0%
Antoine Conte0%
Simeon Petrov0%
Carlos Algarra López0%
Nikola Iliev0%
Henrique Jocu0%
Bryan-Anthony Chibuike Hein0%
Gabriel Noga0%
Edson Silva0%
Emmanuel John0%
Pedro Igor0%
Aleksa Maraš0%
Ivaylo Videv0%
Samuil Tsonov0%
Williams Chimezie Oluebube0%
Emmanuel Abraham0%
Zakaria Tindano0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (29)
€46m
LS (27)
€38m
CS (25)
€26m
C1 (30)
€18m
BP (29)
€11m
AK (20)
€10m
LP (23)
€9m
LS (25)
€8m
SS (25)
€7m
CMV (22)
€6m
SV (22)
€6m
BV (23)
€6m
DR (22)
€4m
SS (20)
€3m
Arda Kardzhali's squad is €2m less valuable than Botev Plovdiv's (€10m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (12)
€27m
LS (10)
€11m
CS (9)
€10m
C1 (14)
€9m
BP (12)
€5m
AK (7)
€3m
LS (11)
€3m
CMV (8)
€3m
LP (8)
€3m
SS (11)
€2m
BV (8)
€2m
SV (7)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
SS (8)
€1m
Arda Kardzhali's attack is €1m less valuable than Botev Plovdiv's (€3m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (5)
€8m
CS (6)
€6m
LUD (4)
€6m
AK (3)
€3m
LS (6)
€2m
C1 (4)
€2m
BP (6)
€2m
LP (5)
€2m
SS (4)
€2m
BV (5)
€1m
CMV (5)
€1m
DR (5)
€1m
SV (4)
€1m
SS (4)
€1m
Arda Kardzhali and Botev Plovdiv have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (12)
€19m
LUD (13)
€13m
CS (10)
€10m
C1 (12)
€7m
BP (11)
€4m
LP (10)
€4m
AK (10)
€3m
SS (10)
€3m
LS (8)
€3m
SV (11)
€3m
CMV (9)
€2m
BV (10)
€2m
DR (11)
€2m
SS (8)
€2m
Arda Kardzhali and Botev Plovdiv have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Bulgaria: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Levski Sofia
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
CSKA 1948
Septemvri Sofia
Slavia Sofia
Spartak Varna
Dunav Ruse
Cherno More Varna
Botev Vratsa
Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv