Arda Kardzhali are the clear favourites, with a 61 % chance of victory, 26 % for a draw and 14 % for Botev Vratsa to win. The model picks a home win and expects about 2.4 goals, most likely a single 1-0 scoreline with a 14.3 % probability. Arda’s home form shows they average 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against weaker opponents, while Botev, playing away against stronger teams, averages 0.56 goals scored and 1.89 conceded. The match is expected to be low-scoring, reflected in the high probabilities for under-goal selections: Under 7.5 (99.7 %), Away under 3.5 goals (99.4 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.1 %), Under 6.5 (98.8 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.5 %), Away under 2.5 goals (96.6 % with a 1 % edge), Under 5.5 (96.4 % with a 2 % edge) and Home +2 handicap (96.0 % with a 2 % edge). Arda’s recent two-game winning streak, highlighted by a 3-1 win over Lokomotiv Sofia, contrasts with Botev’s four-match losing run that ended with a 0-5 defeat to CSKA Sofia.
Results analysis
Arda Kardzhali extended a four-game winning streak with a 2-0 victory over Botev Vratsa, confirming the model’s prediction of a home win. The Pythia model, giving the home side a 61% chance, was right, and the final score matched the most likely 2-0 outcome. Every suggested pick settled in the model’s favour: Under 7.5 (99.7%) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (99.4%) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.3%) hit, Under 6.5 (98.8%) hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.7%) hit, Away under 2.5 goals (96.6%) hit, Under 5.5 (96.4%) hit, and Home +2 handicap (96.0%) hit. The predictions proved remarkably accurate, with all probabilities expressed as percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Arda Kardzhali win✓ Hit
60.6%
Avg Implied 61.7% · @ 1.50
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.54
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Draw✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied 24.9% · @ 3.71
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.89
Dafabet
3.85
Superbet
3.85
BetVictor
3.80
Unibet
3.80
Botev Vratsa win✗ Miss
13.8%
Avg Implied 13.5% · @ 6.84
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
7.50
Bet365
7.50
Pinnacle
7.44
1xBet
7.26
Marathonbet
7.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Arda Kardzhali
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.83
1.46
0.62
1.24
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.80
0.50
1.50
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.46
0.62
1.64
0.45
1.31
0.77
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Botev Vratsa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Botev Vratsa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.07
1.00
0.69
0.86
1.50
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.78
0.50
0.00
0.43
2.29
vs Similar (21)
1.14
0.76
1.07
0.79
1.29
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Arda Kardzhali) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.4%
@ 1.39+3.9%
Under 1.5
29.6%
@ 2.77-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.42
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Under
Unibet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.94
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.2%
@ 2.24+1.5%
Under 2.5
56.8%
@ 1.60-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.32
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.27
Superbet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.25
Under
10Bet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.62
Unibet
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.3%
@ 4.16-0.1%
Under 3.5
77.7%
@ 1.20+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Pinnacle
4.27
10Bet
4.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
42.2%
@ 2.30+2.0%
No
57.8%
@ 1.54-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.42
BetVictor
2.38
Marathonbet
2.35
1xBet
2.35
Betano
2.32
No
Unibet
1.58
Bet365
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Betfair
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.3%@ 4.70+5.2%
2-0 ✓
13.2%@ 5.63+5.5%
1-1
11.8%@ 6.81+5.5%
0-0
10.1%@ 7.06+4.0%
2-1
9.2%@ 7.92+3.8%
3-0
7.5%@ 9.39+2.9%
3-1
5.2%@ 13.52+2.1%
0-1
5.2%@ 11.63+1.5%
Arda Kardzhali goals ↓
Botev Vratsa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
5.2%
2.2%
0.5%
0.1%
1
14%
12%
3.7%
0.9%
0.2%
2
13%
9.2%
3.2%
0.7%
0.1%
3
7.5%
5.2%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
4
3.2%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arda Kardzhali goals (down), columns = Botev Vratsa goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Levski Sofia
3.00
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.50
Ludogorets
2.43
Arda Kardzhali
2.29
Spartak Varna
1.17
Septemvri Sofia
1.14
Botev Plovdiv
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Dunav Ruse
0.57
Cherno More Varna
0.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
0.50
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Arda Kardzhali is 1.71 points better than Botev Vratsa in terms of average points per game (2.29 vs 0.57).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levski Sofia
2.86
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.17
Ludogorets
1.71
Arda Kardzhali
1.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.17
Spartak Varna
1.17
Botev Plovdiv
1.14
Cherno More Varna
1.14
Dunav Ruse
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Septemvri Sofia
0.71
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Arda Kardzhali is 1.00 goals better than Botev Vratsa in terms of goals scored per game (1.57 vs 0.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arda Kardzhali
0.57
Levski Sofia
0.57
CSKA Sofia
0.67
Ludogorets
0.71
CSKA 1948
0.83
Slavia Sofia
0.86
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.43
Septemvri Sofia
1.43
Botev Plovdiv
1.71
Spartak Varna
1.83
Lokomotiv Sofia
2.00
Dunav Ruse
2.00
Botev Vratsa
2.14
Cherno More Varna
2.29
Arda Kardzhali is 1.57 goals better than Botev Vratsa in terms of goals conceded per game (0.57 vs 2.14).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Levski Sofia
63%
Slavia Sofia
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Arda Kardzhali
For 4.1 · Against 3.7 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 12.3 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Botev Vratsa
For 3.8 · Against 4.0 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 11.6 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arda Kardzhali
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
9.2
8.1
2.8
3.0
2.7
24.3
23.9
24.6
vs Stronger (10)
10.1
9.3
10.8
3.4
4.6
2.2
22.1
24.3
20.5
vs Similar (38)
8.4
9.2
7.6
2.7
2.7
2.8
24.4
23.8
25.1
vs Weaker (2)
2.0
-
2.0
2.0
0.0
4.0
37.0
-
37.0
% over line
37%
38%
36%
44%
42%
46%
74%
69%
79%
% under line
63%
62%
64%
56%
58%
54%
26%
31%
21%
This opponent (Botev Vratsa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Botev Vratsa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.3
7.8
8.8
2.4
2.6
2.2
23.2
23.2
23.1
vs Stronger (13)
8.7
5.7
11.7
1.8
3.6
0.8
20.3
26.7
14.0
vs Similar (37)
8.2
8.5
7.8
2.6
2.3
2.9
24.1
22.2
26.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
32%
15%
50%
36%
42%
29%
60%
46%
75%
% under line
68%
85%
50%
64%
58%
71%
40%
54%
25%
This opponent (Arda Kardzhali) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Sofia
10.6
Botev Plovdiv
10.1
Spartak Varna
10.0
Levski Sofia
9.6
CSKA Sofia
9.6
Botev Vratsa
9.5
CSKA 1948
9.4
Ludogorets
9.4
Lokomotiv Sofia
9.3
Septemvri Sofia
9.1
Cherno More Varna
9.0
Arda Kardzhali
8.8
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arda Kardzhali
5.2
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5.0
Septemvri Sofia
5.0
Botev Vratsa
4.9
Spartak Varna
4.8
CSKA Sofia
4.8
Ludogorets
4.8
Slavia Sofia
4.7
Cherno More Varna
4.7
Levski Sofia
4.6
Botev Plovdiv
4.5
CSKA 1948
4.2
Lokomotiv Sofia
4.1
Dunav Ruse
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cherno More Varna
25.1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
25.0
Levski Sofia
24.7
Botev Vratsa
24.6
Arda Kardzhali
24.2
Slavia Sofia
23.8
Lokomotiv Sofia
23.8
Septemvri Sofia
22.8
CSKA 1948
22.7
Spartak Varna
22.7
CSKA Sofia
22.6
Botev Plovdiv
22.4
Ludogorets
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
42.1%
@ 2.25+1.0%
Under 9.5
57.9%
@ 1.57-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.30
Pinnacle
2.28
Marathonbet
2.27
1xBet
2.22
Unibet
2.20
Under
Superbet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
64.4%
@ 1.60+7.4%
Under 3.5
35.6%
@ 2.12-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.60
Under
Superbet
2.12
Betano
2.12
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
57.8%
Under 21.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Arda Kardzhali or Draw✓ Hit
86.2%
Avg Implied 85.9% · @ 1.08
Edge
+0.3%
61%
26%
14%
covers Arda Kardzhali + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Arda Kardzhali or Botev Vratsa✓ Hit
74.4%
Avg Implied 75.7% · @ 1.23
Edge
-1.2%
61%
26%
14%
covers Arda Kardzhali + Botev Vratsa
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Draw or Botev Vratsa✗ Miss
39.4%
Avg Implied 38.4% · @ 2.42
Edge
+1.0%
61%
26%
14%
covers Draw + Botev Vratsa
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.57
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.46
1xBet
2.46
BetVictor
2.45
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Arda Kardzhali over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
81.9%
@ 1.15+1.8%
Under
18.1%
@ 4.62-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.75
1xBet
4.60
Unibet
4.50
Arda Kardzhali over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
50.9%
@ 1.82+0.2%
Under
49.1%
@ 1.87-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.97
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
Unibet
1.87
BetVictor
1.87
Arda Kardzhali over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
24.5%
@ 3.60-1.2%
Under
75.5%
@ 1.24+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.81
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.70
Superbet
3.65
Under
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Arda Kardzhali over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.4%
@ 7.80-2.6%
Under
90.6%
@ 1.06+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
Betano
6.90
1xBet
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Botev Vratsa over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
50.2%
@ 1.96+2.9%
Under
49.8%
@ 1.75-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.05
BetVictor
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
1.99
Under
Pinnacle
1.82
Betfair
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.79
Betano
1.75
Botev Vratsa over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
15.5%
@ 5.90-0.2%
Under
84.5%
@ 1.10+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.40
Superbet
6.30
BetVictor
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.11
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Botev Vratsa over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 18.58-1.8%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.01+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Botev Vratsa over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Arda Kardzhali, so a minus line means Arda Kardzhali give that many goals of a start and Botev Vratsa receive them. At -1, Arda Kardzhali must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Arda Kardzhali win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Botev Vratsa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Botev Vratsa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.33
0.31
0.12
0.36
0.57
vs Stronger (9)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.86
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.19
0.36
0.14
0.71
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
77% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Arda Kardzhali) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
70.2%
@ 1.46+6.7%
Under 0.5
29.8%
@ 2.53-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
BetVictor
1.49
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
Under
Pinnacle
2.66
Betfair
2.63
10Bet
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Unibet
2.60
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
35.4%
@ 3.18+6.1%
Under 1.5
64.6%
@ 1.32-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.40
Pinnacle
3.40
Betano
3.35
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Under
10Bet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.3%
@ 8.54+2.4%
Under 2.5
86.7%
@ 1.04-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
William Hil
9.50
BetVictor
9.50
Betfair
8.50
Superbet
7.90
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
William Hil
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arda Kardzhali over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
57.5%
@ 1.74+4.3%
Under
42.5%
@ 1.99-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.74
1xBet
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.07
Unibet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.94
Arda Kardzhali over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
17.7%
@ 4.88-1.4%
Under
82.3%
@ 1.15+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.20
Marathonbet
4.75
Betano
4.70
Under
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Arda Kardzhali over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.5%
@ 10.25-4.6%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.03+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Botev Vratsa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
31.9%
@ 3.66+6.5%
Under
68.1%
@ 1.24-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.10
Betano
3.65
Superbet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
1xBet
3.60
Under
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
Botev Vratsa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.4%
@ 11.25-1.9%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.02+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Botev Vratsa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arda Kardzhali
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.62
0.31
0.65
0.65
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.20
0.00
1.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.33
0.73
0.18
0.77
0.46
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Botev Vratsa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Botev Vratsa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.69
0.56
0.50
0.93
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.11
0.50
0.00
0.43
1.43
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.57
0.71
0.64
0.57
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Arda Kardzhali) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.4%
@ 1.31+6.6%
Under 0.5
22.6%
@ 3.19-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.35
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.30
1xBet
3.16
Marathonbet
3.16
Superbet
3.15
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
44.9%
@ 2.42+6.6%
Under 1.5
55.1%
@ 1.50-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.50
Superbet
2.47
10Bet
2.45
1xBet
2.41
Marathonbet
2.41
Under
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Unibet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.6%
@ 5.58+2.0%
Under 2.5
81.4%
@ 1.11-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
6.00
Superbet
5.65
1xBet
5.30
Marathonbet
5.30
Under
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arda Kardzhali over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
62.4%
@ 1.53+1.8%
Under
37.6%
@ 2.36-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.56
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.51
Under
Betano
2.40
1xBet
2.38
Superbet
2.30
Arda Kardzhali over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
25.2%
@ 3.41-2.0%
Under
74.8%
@ 1.27+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.48
1xBet
3.40
Betano
3.35
Under
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Arda Kardzhali over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.1%
@ 8.60-3.6%
Under
92.9%
@ 1.03+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.50
Betano
7.70
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.01
Botev Vratsa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
37.2%
@ 2.99+6.3%
Under
62.8%
@ 1.34-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.05
Marathonbet
3.04
1xBet
3.00
Betano
2.87
Under
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.34
Superbet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Botev Vratsa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.0%
@ 10.90-1.7%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.04+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.75
1xBet
11.70
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Botev Vratsa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
96.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
96.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.5%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.6%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
93.0%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.9%
1.03
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
90.6%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.3%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.04
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.7%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
William Hil
1.05
-2.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
86.2%
1.08
Betano
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Unibet
1.09
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
86.2%
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.10
-
-
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
84.5%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.11
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.3%
1.15
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
-
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
81.9%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
10Bet
1.15
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.4%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
79.7%
1.18
Unibet
1.22
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.13
-
-
+1.9%
-
Under 3.5
77.7%
1.20
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.4%
1.31
William Hil
1.35
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
75.5%
1.24
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
74.8%
1.27
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
-
-
+2.0%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
74.4%
1.23
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
71.7%
1.29
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.4%
1.39
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.42
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.2%
1.46
Betano
1.53
BetVictor
1.49
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
+6.7%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Arda Kardzhali · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ivelin Popov30%
Birsent Karagaren28%
Antonio Vutov27%
Wilson Samaké18%
Dimitar Velkovski17%
Isnaba Mané17%
Andre Shinyashiki12%
Atanas Kabov6%
Idowu David Akintola6%
Gustavo Cascardo5%
Patrick Luan5%
Svetoslav Kovachev5%
Félix Eboa Eboa4%
Serkan Yussein4%
Anatoli Gospodinov0%
Lachezar Kotev0%
Martin Paskalev0%
Ivan Tilev0%
Plamen Krachunov0%
Vyacheslav Velev0%
Emil Viyachki0%
Jalal Huseynov0%
Georgi Nikolov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dimitar Velkovski33%
Gustavo Cascardo30%
Svetoslav Kovachev29%
Idowu David Akintola28%
Georgi Nikolov22%
Wilson Samaké18%
Félix Eboa Eboa17%
Emil Viyachki17%
Isnaba Mané17%
Lachezar Kotev13%
Martin Paskalev12%
Atanas Kabov12%
Ivelin Popov10%
Patrick Luan10%
Antonio Vutov9%
Vyacheslav Velev9%
Serkan Yussein8%
Anatoli Gospodinov8%
Birsent Karagaren8%
Andre Shinyashiki6%
Jalal Huseynov5%
Ivan Tilev0%
Plamen Krachunov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lachezar Kotev17%
Isnaba Mané17%
Svetoslav Kovachev14%
Atanas Kabov12%
Andre Shinyashiki12%
Ivan Tilev11%
Gustavo Cascardo10%
Birsent Karagaren8%
Patrick Luan5%
Antonio Vutov5%
Serkan Yussein4%
Anatoli Gospodinov0%
Dimitar Velkovski0%
Martin Paskalev0%
Félix Eboa Eboa0%
Plamen Krachunov0%
Ivelin Popov0%
Vyacheslav Velev0%
Emil Viyachki0%
Idowu David Akintola0%
Jalal Huseynov0%
Georgi Nikolov0%
Wilson Samaké0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Georgi Nikolov22%
Andre Shinyashiki12%
Ivelin Popov10%
Birsent Karagaren8%
Dimitar Velkovski6%
Idowu David Akintola6%
Patrick Luan5%
Vyacheslav Velev5%
Serkan Yussein0%
Atanas Kabov0%
Antonio Vutov0%
Anatoli Gospodinov0%
Lachezar Kotev0%
Martin Paskalev0%
Ivan Tilev0%
Svetoslav Kovachev0%
Félix Eboa Eboa0%
Plamen Krachunov0%
Gustavo Cascardo0%
Emil Viyachki0%
Jalal Huseynov0%
Isnaba Mané0%
Wilson Samaké0%
Botev Vratsa · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martin Petkov24%
Mitchy Ntelo14%
Kassim Hadji14%
Martin Smolenski12%
Radoslav Tsonev12%
Sainey Sanyang11%
Arian Kabashi11%
José Gallegos6%
Milen Stoev5%
Daniel Genov5%
Antoan Stoyanov5%
Marin Orlinov0%
Martin Achkov0%
Bozhidar Chorbadzhiyski0%
Kristiyan Malinov0%
Ivan Goranov0%
Iliya Yurukov0%
Dimitar Evtimov0%
Aymen Souda0%
Romeesh Ivey0%
Martin Dichev0%
Nikola Vlajković0%
Mohamed Bukassi0%
Vladislav Naydenov0%
Đorđe Jovičić0%
Martin Stoychev0%
Bozhidar Penchev0%
Danilo Gennadievich Polonsky0%
Yoan Bornosuzov0%
Lazar Boyanov0%
Martin Stanislavov Bachev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mohamed Bukassi67%
Nikola Vlajković40%
Aymen Souda33%
Arian Kabashi33%
Ivan Goranov27%
Yoan Bornosuzov25%
Martin Petkov24%
Milen Stoev20%
Kristiyan Malinov20%
Dimitar Evtimov18%
Martin Smolenski18%
Vladislav Naydenov18%
Bozhidar Chorbadzhiyski17%
Daniel Genov15%
Iliya Yurukov13%
Radoslav Tsonev12%
Romeesh Ivey11%
Bozhidar Penchev11%
Antoan Stoyanov10%
José Gallegos6%
Marin Orlinov0%
Martin Achkov0%
Martin Dichev0%
Đorđe Jovičić0%
Mitchy Ntelo0%
Martin Stoychev0%
Kassim Hadji0%
Danilo Gennadievich Polonsky0%
Sainey Sanyang0%
Lazar Boyanov0%
Martin Stanislavov Bachev0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Radoslav Tsonev18%
Martin Petkov12%
Vladislav Naydenov12%
José Gallegos11%
Kristiyan Malinov10%
Martin Smolenski6%
Daniel Genov5%
Marin Orlinov0%
Martin Achkov0%
Milen Stoev0%
Bozhidar Chorbadzhiyski0%
Ivan Goranov0%
Iliya Yurukov0%
Dimitar Evtimov0%
Aymen Souda0%
Romeesh Ivey0%
Martin Dichev0%
Nikola Vlajković0%
Mohamed Bukassi0%
Đorđe Jovičić0%
Mitchy Ntelo0%
Martin Stoychev0%
Kassim Hadji0%
Bozhidar Penchev0%
Danilo Gennadievich Polonsky0%
Antoan Stoyanov0%
Yoan Bornosuzov0%
Sainey Sanyang0%
Lazar Boyanov0%
Martin Stanislavov Bachev0%
Arian Kabashi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Martin Petkov18%
Aymen Souda17%
Daniel Genov15%
Radoslav Tsonev12%
Romeesh Ivey11%
Martin Smolenski6%
Marin Orlinov0%
Martin Achkov0%
Milen Stoev0%
Bozhidar Chorbadzhiyski0%
Kristiyan Malinov0%
Ivan Goranov0%
Iliya Yurukov0%
Dimitar Evtimov0%
Martin Dichev0%
Nikola Vlajković0%
Mohamed Bukassi0%
José Gallegos0%
Vladislav Naydenov0%
Đorđe Jovičić0%
Mitchy Ntelo0%
Martin Stoychev0%
Kassim Hadji0%
Bozhidar Penchev0%
Danilo Gennadievich Polonsky0%
Antoan Stoyanov0%
Yoan Bornosuzov0%
Sainey Sanyang0%
Lazar Boyanov0%
Martin Stanislavov Bachev0%
Arian Kabashi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (29)
€46m
LS (27)
€38m
CS (25)
€26m
C1 (30)
€18m
BP (29)
€11m
AK (20)
€10m
LP (23)
€9m
LS (25)
€8m
SS (25)
€7m
CMV (22)
€6m
SV (22)
€6m
BV (23)
€6m
DR (22)
€4m
SS (20)
€3m
Arda Kardzhali's squad is €4m more valuable than Botev Vratsa's (€10m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (12)
€27m
LS (10)
€11m
CS (9)
€10m
C1 (14)
€9m
BP (12)
€5m
AK (7)
€3m
LS (11)
€3m
CMV (8)
€3m
LP (8)
€3m
SS (11)
€2m
BV (8)
€2m
SV (7)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
SS (8)
€1m
Arda Kardzhali's attack is €1m more valuable than Botev Vratsa's (€3m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (5)
€8m
CS (6)
€6m
LUD (4)
€6m
AK (3)
€3m
LS (6)
€2m
C1 (4)
€2m
BP (6)
€2m
LP (5)
€2m
SS (4)
€2m
BV (5)
€1m
CMV (5)
€1m
DR (5)
€1m
SV (4)
€1m
SS (4)
€1m
Arda Kardzhali's midfield is €1m more valuable than Botev Vratsa's (€3m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (12)
€19m
LUD (13)
€13m
CS (10)
€10m
C1 (12)
€7m
BP (11)
€4m
LP (10)
€4m
AK (10)
€3m
SS (10)
€3m
LS (8)
€3m
SV (11)
€3m
CMV (9)
€2m
BV (10)
€2m
DR (11)
€2m
SS (8)
€2m
Arda Kardzhali's defence is €1m more valuable than Botev Vratsa's (€3m vs €2m).
Bulgaria: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Levski Sofia
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
CSKA 1948
Septemvri Sofia
Slavia Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
Spartak Varna
Dunav Ruse
Cherno More Varna
Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv