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Ards vs Armagh City Result & Analysis

Date: 26/10/2024
Time: 14:00
Final 3-1
Ards
Ards
Vs
39%
27%
34%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Armagh City
Armagh City
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Ards win✓ Hit
38.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Armagh City win✗ Miss
33.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

ArdsArds

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D04L14L01L23L31W00D41W11D01LA·BAL24/08H·BAN27/08A·ARM31/08H·DUN07/09A·BAL14/09H·H&W21/09H·INS28/09A·NEW04/10H·ANN12/10A·DUN19/10
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.771.131.531.802.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)1.191.951.181.641.202.30
vs Weaker (9)2.111.331.001.253.001.40
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Armagh City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Armagh CityArmagh City

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-533D21W41W03L05L14L31W01L10W22DH·NEW24/08A·ANN27/08H·ARD31/08A·LIM07/09A·H&W14/09H·BAN21/09A·BAL28/09H·NEW05/10A·DUN12/10H·LIM19/10
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.861.862.001.141.71
vs Stronger (13)1.381.921.862.000.831.83
vs Similar (1)3.001.00--3.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.1%
Under 1.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.5%
Under 2.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.2%
Under 3.5
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.0%
No
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
8.0%
1-0
7.3%
0-0
6.9%
0-1
6.7%
2-0
6.3%
2-2
6.0%
Ards goals ↓
Armagh City goals →
01234
06.9%6.7%5.4%2.5%0.9%
17.3%13%8.0%3.7%1.3%
26.3%8.7%6.0%2.7%0.9%
33.1%4.3%3.0%1.4%0.5%
41.2%1.6%1.1%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ards goals (down), columns = Armagh City goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Bangor
2.00
Annagh United
1.87
Limavady United
1.74
H&W Welders
1.74
Queen's University
1.50
Ards
1.37
Dundela
1.37
Institute
1.34
Ballinamallard United
1.16
Armagh City
1.11
Newington Youth
1.11
Ballyclare Comrades
1.07
Newry City AFC
0.82
Ards is 0.26 points better than Armagh City in terms of average points per game (1.37 vs 1.11).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Bangor
2.16
H&W Welders
2.08
Annagh United
1.84
Limavady United
1.76
Armagh City
1.63
Institute
1.63
Dundela
1.53
Queen's University
1.50
Ballinamallard United
1.45
Ards
1.45
Ballyclare Comrades
1.35
Newington Youth
1.34
Newry City AFC
1.21
Ards is 0.18 goals worse than Armagh City in terms of goals scored per game (1.45 vs 1.63).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Annagh United
0.97
Queen's University
1.00
Limavady United
1.16
Bangor
1.21
H&W Welders
1.39
Ards
1.50
Ballinamallard United
1.63
Dundela
1.63
Institute
1.66
Newington Youth
1.95
Armagh City
2.05
Newry City AFC
2.05
Ballyclare Comrades
2.20
Ards is 0.55 goals better than Armagh City in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 2.05).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ArdsArds

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L03L11D01L11D11D00D20W00D01LA·BAL24/08H·BAN27/08A·ARM31/08H·DUN07/09A·BAL14/09H·H&W21/09H·INS28/09A·NEW04/10H·ANN12/10A·DUN19/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.730.400.730.930.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.430.760.360.730.500.80
vs Weaker (9)1.220.670.500.751.800.60
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Armagh City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Armagh CityArmagh City

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-222D11D11D02L02L12L10W00D00D11DH·NEW24/08A·ANN27/08H·ARD31/08A·LIM07/09A·H&W14/09H·BAN21/09A·BAL28/09H·NEW05/10A·DUN12/10H·LIM19/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.690.921.001.170.430.71
vs Stronger (12)0.671.001.001.170.330.83
vs Similar (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %38% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ards over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ArdsArds

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L03L00D12L20W00D21W11D00DA·BAL24/08H·BAN27/08A·ARM31/08H·DUN07/09A·BAL14/09H·H&W21/09H·INS28/09A·NEW04/10H·ANN12/10A·DUN19/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.030.730.800.871.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.761.190.820.910.701.50
vs Weaker (9)0.890.670.500.501.200.80
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Armagh City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Armagh CityArmagh City

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W30W01L03L02L21W01L10W11DH·NEW24/08A·ANN27/08H·ARD31/08A·LIM07/09A·H&W14/09H·BAN21/09A·BAL28/09H·NEW05/10A·DUN12/10H·LIM19/10
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.851.001.001.000.711.00
vs Stronger (12)0.751.001.001.000.501.00
vs Similar (1)2.001.00--2.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ards over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (20)
€2m
LU (5)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (4)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (5)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (11)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
ARD wins
0
Draws
1
AC wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ards vs Armagh City · H/A from ARD
DateH/AGameScore
31/08/24AArmagh City Vs ARD4-1

ArdsArds

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/10/24ADundela Vs ARD1-0
12/10/24HARD Vs Annagh United1-1
04/10/24ANewry City AFC Vs ARD1-4
28/09/24HARD Vs Institute0-0
21/09/24HARD Vs H&W Welders3-1
14/09/24ABallyclare Comrades Vs ARD3-2
07/09/24HARD Vs Dundela0-1
31/08/24AArmagh City Vs ARD4-1
27/08/24HARD Vs Bangor0-4
24/08/24ABallinamallard United Vs ARD2-2

Armagh CityArmagh City

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/10/24HAC Vs Limavady United2-2
12/10/24ADundela Vs AC0-1
05/10/24HAC Vs Newington Youth0-1
28/09/24ABallinamallard United Vs AC1-3
21/09/24HAC Vs Bangor1-4
14/09/24AH&W Welders Vs AC5-0
07/09/24ALimavady United Vs AC3-0
31/08/24HAC Vs Ards4-1
27/08/24AAnnagh United Vs AC1-2
24/08/24HAC Vs Newry City AFC3-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ards
Ards
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWDL1.04
HomeLLWDD0.96
AwayDLLWL1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%20%32%
AVG goals3.363.163.56
Over 1.5 %82%84%80%
Over 2.5 %68%64%72%
Over 3.5 %52%52%52%
Scored1.581.481.68
Conceded1.781.681.88
BTTS60%72%48%
Clean Sheet20%12%28%
Corners---
Cards---
Armagh City
Armagh City
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWD1.29
HomeDWLLD1.00
AwayWLLWW1.57
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %29%14%43%
AVG goals3.363.862.86
Over 1.5 %86%86%86%
Over 2.5 %64%71%57%
Over 3.5 %50%71%29%
Scored1.501.861.14
Conceded1.862.001.71
BTTS71%86%57%
Clean Sheet7%0%14%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BangorBangor3876
61%
2.0
8246+36
3.4
79%
71%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.21.2
-
2Annagh UnitedAnnagh United3871
58%
1.9
7037+33
2.8
76%
53%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.0
-
3H&W WeldersH&W Welders3866
53%
1.7
7953+26
3.5
82%
71%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.4
-
4Limavady UnitedLimavady United3866
47%
1.7
6744+23
2.9
84%
63%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
5ArdsArds3852
37%
1.4
5557-2
2.9
68%
53%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
6DundelaDundela3852
39%
1.4
5862-4
3.2
82%
61%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
7InstituteInstitute3851
34%
1.3
6263-1
3.3
84%
66%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.7
-
8Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United3844
34%
1.2
5562-7
3.1
79%
68%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
9Ballyclare ComradesBallyclare Comrades4043
30%
1.1
5488-34
3.5
95%
75%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.2
-
10Armagh CityArmagh City3842
26%
1.1
6278-16
3.7
87%
71%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.1
-
11Newington YouthNewington Youth3842
29%
1.1
5174-23
3.3
82%
61%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
12Newry City AFCNewry City AFC3831
18%
0.8
4678-32
3.3
87%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.1
-
13QueenQueen's University23
50%
1.5
32+1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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