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Ards vs Dundela Result & Analysis

Date: 31/12/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 1-3
Ards
Ards
Vs
28%
27%
45%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dundela
Dundela
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Ards win✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dundela win✓ Hit
45.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

ArdsArds

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W22D13L42W20W04L01L01L10W00DH·ARM26/10A·NEW02/11H·BAL09/11A·INS16/11H·LIM22/11A·H&W30/11H·BAL07/12H·NEW14/12A·ANN21/12A·BAN26/12
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.531.201.401.931.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.301.551.091.551.561.56
vs Weaker (10)2.101.501.501.002.501.83
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DundelaDundela

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D23L13L31W20W21W43W21W12LH·ARD19/10A·ANN25/10A·LIM02/11H·BAN09/11H·NEW16/11A·NEW22/11A·BAL30/11A·ARM14/12H·BAL21/12H·H&W27/12
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.501.501.621.861.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.531.291.561.561.501.00
vs Weaker (13)1.851.771.431.712.331.83
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.8%
Under 1.5
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.5%
Under 2.5
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.1%
Under 3.5
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.0%
No
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-2
9.3%
0-1
7.8%
0-2
7.4%
2-1
7.2%
0-0
6.6%
2-2
5.9%
1-0
5.8%
Ards goals ↓
Dundela goals →
01234
06.6%7.8%7.4%4.0%1.6%
15.8%12%9.3%5.1%2.1%
24.4%7.2%5.9%3.2%1.3%
31.9%3.0%2.5%1.4%0.6%
40.6%1.0%0.8%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ards goals (down), columns = Dundela goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Bangor
2.00
Annagh United
1.87
Limavady United
1.74
H&W Welders
1.74
Queen's University
1.50
Ards
1.37
Dundela
1.37
Institute
1.34
Ballinamallard United
1.16
Armagh City
1.11
Newington Youth
1.11
Ballyclare Comrades
1.07
Newry City AFC
0.82
Ards and Dundela are level in average points per game (both 1.37).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Bangor
2.16
H&W Welders
2.08
Annagh United
1.84
Limavady United
1.76
Armagh City
1.63
Institute
1.63
Dundela
1.53
Queen's University
1.50
Ballinamallard United
1.45
Ards
1.45
Ballyclare Comrades
1.35
Newington Youth
1.34
Newry City AFC
1.21
Ards is 0.08 goals worse than Dundela in terms of goals scored per game (1.45 vs 1.53).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Annagh United
0.97
Queen's University
1.00
Limavady United
1.16
Bangor
1.21
H&W Welders
1.39
Ards
1.50
Ballinamallard United
1.63
Dundela
1.63
Institute
1.66
Newington Youth
1.95
Armagh City
2.05
Newry City AFC
2.05
Ballyclare Comrades
2.20
Ards is 0.13 goals better than Dundela in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.63).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ArdsArds

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L13L21W00D01L01L00D10W00DH·ARM26/10A·NEW02/11H·BAL09/11A·INS16/11H·LIM22/11A·H&W30/11H·BAL07/12H·NEW14/12A·ANN21/12A·BAN26/12
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.700.470.731.000.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.500.750.360.820.670.67
vs Weaker (10)1.200.600.750.501.500.67
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DundelaDundela

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D20W03L11D20W20W20W01L00DH·ARD19/10A·ANN25/10A·LIM02/11H·BAN09/11H·NEW16/11A·NEW22/11A·BAL30/11A·ARM14/12H·BAL21/12H·H&W27/12
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.470.560.561.210.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.650.710.560.780.750.62
vs Weaker (13)1.150.150.570.291.830.00
Clean sheet %67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ards over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ArdsArds

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D21W00D21W20W03L00D01L00D00DH·ARM26/10A·NEW02/11H·BAL09/11A·INS16/11H·LIM22/11A·H&W30/11H·BAL07/12H·NEW14/12A·ANN21/12A·BAN26/12
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.830.730.670.931.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.800.800.730.730.890.89
vs Weaker (10)0.900.900.750.501.001.17
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DundelaDundela

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D03L10W20W00D01L23L20W12LH·ARD19/10A·ANN25/10A·LIM02/11H·BAN09/11H·NEW16/11A·NEW22/11A·BAL30/11A·ARM14/12H·BAL21/12H·H&W27/12
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.030.941.060.641.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.880.591.000.780.750.38
vs Weaker (13)0.691.620.861.430.501.83
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ards over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (20)
€2m
LU (5)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (4)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (5)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (11)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
ARD wins
1
Draws
3
DUN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ards vs Dundela · H/A from ARD
DateH/AGameScore
19/10/24ADundela Vs ARD1-0
07/09/24HARD Vs Dundela0-1
02/03/24ADundela Vs ARD4-0
25/11/23HARD Vs Dundela4-0
23/09/23ADundela Vs ARD0-1
29/04/23ADundela Vs ARD2-4
25/03/23ADundela Vs ARD1-5
31/12/22HARD Vs Dundela1-1

ArdsArds

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/12/24ABangor Vs ARD0-0
21/12/24AAnnagh United Vs ARD0-1
14/12/24HARD Vs Newry City AFC0-1
07/12/24HARD Vs Ballinamallard United0-1
30/11/24AH&W Welders Vs ARD4-0
22/11/24HARD Vs Limavady United2-0
16/11/24AInstitute Vs ARD2-4
09/11/24HARD Vs Ballyclare Comrades1-3
02/11/24ANewington Youth Vs ARD2-2
26/10/24HARD Vs Armagh City3-1

DundelaDundela

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/12/24HDUN Vs H&W Welders1-2
21/12/24HDUN Vs Ballyclare Comrades2-1
14/12/24AArmagh City Vs DUN3-4
30/11/24ABallinamallard United Vs DUN1-2
22/11/24ANewry City AFC Vs DUN0-2
16/11/24HDUN Vs Newington Youth3-1
09/11/24HDUN Vs Bangor1-3
02/11/24ALimavady United Vs DUN3-2
25/10/24AAnnagh United Vs DUN0-0
19/10/24HDUN Vs Ards1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ards
Ards
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWD1.06
HomeWLWLL1.00
AwayDWLWD1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%24%32%
AVG goals3.342.883.80
Over 1.5 %80%76%84%
Over 2.5 %68%56%80%
Over 3.5 %54%48%60%
Scored1.561.361.76
Conceded1.781.522.04
BTTS54%60%48%
Clean Sheet22%16%28%
Corners---
Cards---
Dundela
Dundela
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWL1.72
HomeWLWWL1.73
AwayDLWWW1.71
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%54%50%
AVG goals3.383.623.12
Over 1.5 %80%81%79%
Over 2.5 %66%65%67%
Over 3.5 %50%50%50%
Scored1.882.121.62
Conceded1.501.501.50
BTTS64%69%58%
Clean Sheet26%23%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BangorBangor3876
61%
2.0
8246+36
3.4
79%
71%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.21.2
-
2Annagh UnitedAnnagh United3871
58%
1.9
7037+33
2.8
76%
53%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.0
-
3H&W WeldersH&W Welders3866
53%
1.7
7953+26
3.5
82%
71%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.4
-
4Limavady UnitedLimavady United3866
47%
1.7
6744+23
2.9
84%
63%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
5ArdsArds3852
37%
1.4
5557-2
2.9
68%
53%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
6DundelaDundela3852
39%
1.4
5862-4
3.2
82%
61%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
7InstituteInstitute3851
34%
1.3
6263-1
3.3
84%
66%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.7
-
8Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United3844
34%
1.2
5562-7
3.1
79%
68%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
9Ballyclare ComradesBallyclare Comrades4043
30%
1.1
5488-34
3.5
95%
75%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.2
-
10Armagh CityArmagh City3842
26%
1.1
6278-16
3.7
87%
71%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.1
-
11Newington YouthNewington Youth3842
29%
1.1
5174-23
3.3
82%
61%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
12Newry City AFCNewry City AFC3831
18%
0.8
4678-32
3.3
87%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.1
-
13QueenQueen's University23
50%
1.5
32+1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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