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Ards vs Dundela Result & Analysis

Date: 11/08/2026
Time: 18:45
Final 2-2
Ards
Ards
Vs
47%
26%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dundela
Dundela
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Ards are expected to emerge victorious, capitalizing on their recent momentum, having won their last two matches. They've been on a roll, and this form will be crucial in determining the outcome of their encounter with Dundela. The model predicts a home win, with a 47% probability of Ards taking all three points. The probability of a draw stands at 26%, while Dundela's chances of winning sit at 27%.

The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12.5%. Ards have been scoring at an average of 1 goal per match at home, while conceding 0.88 goals on average. Dundela, on the other hand, have been scoring 1.09 goals away from home, but conceding 2.18 goals on average.

The model's selection is the Over 1.5 goals, which is predicted to happen with a probability of 79.5%. In terms of probabilities, Ards have a 47% chance of winning, a 26% chance of drawing, and a 27% chance of losing. The model also suggests the Over 1.5 goals, which has a 79.5% probability.

Results analysis

The draw between Ards and Dundela extends Dundela's unbeaten run to six games, coming off a 2-2 result against the same opponents in their previous match. However, the pre-match favourite, Ards, failed to come through, with their home win selection being incorrect. The model's call was wrong, as Ards were expected to win with a 47% probability. Meanwhile, the model's selection of home win came up short. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 hit, with a probability of 79.5%. The final score was 2-2, resulting in a draw, which was the actual result.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ards win✗ Miss
46.7%
Avg Implied 56.7% · @ 1.60
Edge
-10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Dafabet
1.66
Superbet
1.65
Betano
1.62
Draw✓ Hit
26.4%
Avg Implied 24.4% · @ 3.71
Edge
+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
4.20
Dafabet
3.85
Betano
3.80
Superbet
3.75
BetVictor
3.75
Dundela win✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied 18.8% · @ 4.81
Edge
+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
5.40
10Bet
5.25
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
1xBet
4.98

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ArdsArds

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-323L10W11D30W20W01L21W13L10W31WA·ANN07/03A·LOU10/03A·DUN14/03H·WAR21/03A·BAL28/03H·DUN04/04H·ARM10/04A·INS18/04A·WAR25/04A·GLE08/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.301.231.461.711.18
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.171.500.861.431.361.55
vs Weaker (12)2.001.001.671.502.330.50
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DundelaDundela

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D13L11D11D12L10W20W00D22D22DH·LIM27/02A·H&W10/03H·ARD14/03A·ANN21/03H·INS28/03A·ARD04/04H·WAR11/04H·ARM18/04A·BAL25/04H·MOY08/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.901.201.801.132.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.001.621.001.861.001.44
vs Weaker (14)1.362.211.381.751.332.83
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.5%
@ 1.22+4.6%
Under 1.5
20.5%
@ 3.63-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Under
Unibet
3.95
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.58
Marathonbet
3.58
Superbet
3.55
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.2%
@ 1.73+2.2%
Under 2.5
44.8%
@ 1.96-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
1xBet
1.76
BetVictor
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
Under
Unibet
2.10
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.93
Betano
1.93
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.8%
@ 2.70-0.8%
Under 3.5
67.2%
@ 1.37+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.83
Marathonbet
2.83
Superbet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Pinnacle
2.66
Under
Unibet
1.43
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.35
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.4%
@ 1.76+6.4%
No
41.6%
@ 1.91-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.83
BetVictor
1.78
Superbet
1.77
1xBet
1.75
Unibet
1.75
No
Superbet
1.95
Unibet
1.94
BetVictor
1.93
1xBet
1.93
William Hil
1.91

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%@ 6.75+6.2%
2-1
9.5%@ 7.33+3.7%
1-0
8.1%@ 6.50+1.6%
2-0
7.7%@ 7.17+1.9%
1-2
6.9%@ 13.83+3.9%
0-0
6.7%@ 11.00+2.8%
2-2 ✓
5.8%@ 13.67+2.7%
0-1
5.6%@ 13.00+2.4%
Ards goals ↓
Dundela goals →
01234
06.7%5.6%4.1%1.7%0.5%
18.1%12%6.9%2.8%0.9%
27.7%9.5%5.8%2.4%0.7%
34.3%5.3%3.2%1.3%0.4%
41.8%2.2%1.3%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ards goals (down), columns = Dundela goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Ards is 0.80 points better than Dundela in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 0.60).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Ards is 0.40 goals better than Dundela in terms of goals scored per game (1.80 vs 1.40).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Ards is 0.20 goals better than Dundela in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 2.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ArdsArds

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L00D10W10W20W01L10W01L10W10WA·ANN07/03A·LOU10/03A·DUN14/03H·WAR21/03A·BAL28/03H·DUN04/04H·ARM10/04A·INS18/04A·WAR25/04A·GLE08/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.430.460.460.820.41
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.500.500.430.430.550.55
vs Weaker (12)0.920.330.500.501.330.17
Clean sheet %67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DundelaDundela

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W02L01L01L01L10W20W00D10W10WH·LIM27/02A·H&W10/03H·ARD14/03A·ANN21/03H·INS28/03A·ARD04/04H·WAR11/04H·ARM18/04A·BAL25/04H·MOY08/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.730.530.530.330.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.250.620.290.860.220.44
vs Weaker (14)0.640.860.750.250.501.67
Clean sheet %53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ards over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ArdsArds

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W01L20W00D00D11D12L00D21WA·ANN07/03A·LOU10/03A·DUN14/03H·WAR21/03A·BAL28/03H·DUN04/04H·ARM10/04A·INS18/04A·WAR25/04A·GLE08/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.870.771.000.880.76
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.671.000.431.000.821.00
vs Weaker (12)1.080.671.171.001.000.33
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DundelaDundela

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L11D10W10W11D00D00D00D12L12LH·LIM27/02A·H&W10/03H·ARD14/03A·ANN21/03H·INS28/03A·ARD04/04H·WAR11/04H·ARM18/04A·BAL25/04H·MOY08/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.170.671.270.801.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.751.000.711.000.781.00
vs Weaker (14)0.711.360.621.500.831.17
Clean sheet %23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ards over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.5%1.22
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
+4.6%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
ARD wins
1
Draws
5
DUN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ards vs Dundela · H/A from ARD
DateH/AGameScore
04/04/26HARD Vs Dundela0-1
14/03/26ADundela Vs ARD1-1
20/12/25ADundela Vs ARD1-4
29/08/25HARD Vs Dundela1-0
19/04/25ADundela Vs ARD1-0
31/12/24HARD Vs Dundela1-3
19/10/24ADundela Vs ARD1-0
07/09/24HARD Vs Dundela0-1

ArdsArds

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/08/26AGlenavon FC Vs ARD1-3
25/04/26AWarrenpoint Town Vs ARD0-1
18/04/26AInstitute Vs ARD3-1
10/04/26HARD Vs Armagh City2-1
04/04/26HARD Vs Dundela0-1
28/03/26ABallinamallard United Vs ARD0-2
21/03/26HARD Vs Warrenpoint Town3-0
14/03/26ADundela Vs ARD1-1
10/03/26ALoughgall Vs ARD0-1
07/03/26AAnnagh United Vs ARD3-2

DundelaDundela

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/08/26HDUN Vs Moyola Park2-2
25/04/26ABallinamallard United Vs DUN2-2
18/04/26HDUN Vs Armagh City0-0
11/04/26HDUN Vs Warrenpoint Town2-0
04/04/26AArds Vs DUN0-1
28/03/26HDUN Vs Institute1-2
21/03/26AAnnagh United Vs DUN1-1
14/03/26HDUN Vs Ards1-1
10/03/26AH&W Welders Vs DUN3-1
27/02/26HDUN Vs Limavady United1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ards
Ards
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWW1.40
HomeWWWLW1.52
AwayDWLWW1.30
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%43%37%
AVG goals2.842.962.74
Over 1.5 %74%83%67%
Over 2.5 %52%61%44%
Over 3.5 %34%30%37%
Scored1.481.481.48
Conceded1.361.481.26
BTTS54%65%44%
Clean Sheet24%26%22%
Corners---
Cards---
Dundela
Dundela
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 6 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDDD0.76
HomeDLWDD0.96
AwayLLDWD0.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %14%19%8%
AVG goals3.063.152.96
Over 1.5 %88%85%92%
Over 2.5 %62%62%62%
Over 3.5 %38%46%29%
Scored1.121.270.96
Conceded1.941.882.00
BTTS68%69%67%
Clean Sheet12%15%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Newington YouthNewington Youth513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
2H&W WeldersH&W Welders512
80%
2.4
93+6
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.6
-
3Glenavon FCGlenavon FC510
60%
2.0
148+6
4.4
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.81.6
-
4QueenQueen's University510
60%
2.0
115+6
3.2
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5Annagh UnitedAnnagh United510
60%
2.0
129+3
4.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.8
-
6LoughgallLoughgall59
40%
1.8
107+3
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
7Newry City AFCNewry City AFC59
60%
1.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
8ArdsArds57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
10Moyola ParkMoyola Park57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United56
40%
1.2
58-3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12InstituteInstitute54
20%
0.8
49-5
2.6
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
13DundelaDundela53
0%
0.6
710-3
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
14Strabane AthleticStrabane Athletic53
20%
0.6
610-4
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
15Armagh CityArmagh City52
0%
0.4
37-4
2.0
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
16RathfrilandRathfriland50
0%
0.0
516-11
4.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.2
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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