Ards are expected to emerge victorious, capitalizing on their recent momentum, having won their last two matches. They've been on a roll, and this form will be crucial in determining the outcome of their encounter with Dundela. The model predicts a home win, with a 47% probability of Ards taking all three points. The probability of a draw stands at 26%, while Dundela's chances of winning sit at 27%.
The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12.5%. Ards have been scoring at an average of 1 goal per match at home, while conceding 0.88 goals on average. Dundela, on the other hand, have been scoring 1.09 goals away from home, but conceding 2.18 goals on average.
The model's selection is the Over 1.5 goals, which is predicted to happen with a probability of 79.5%. In terms of probabilities, Ards have a 47% chance of winning, a 26% chance of drawing, and a 27% chance of losing. The model also suggests the Over 1.5 goals, which has a 79.5% probability.
Results analysis
The draw between Ards and Dundela extends Dundela's unbeaten run to six games, coming off a 2-2 result against the same opponents in their previous match. However, the pre-match favourite, Ards, failed to come through, with their home win selection being incorrect. The model's call was wrong, as Ards were expected to win with a 47% probability. Meanwhile, the model's selection of home win came up short. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 hit, with a probability of 79.5%. The final score was 2-2, resulting in a draw, which was the actual result.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ards win✗ Miss
46.7%
Avg Implied 56.7% · @ 1.60
Edge
-10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Dafabet
1.66
Superbet
1.65
Betano
1.62
Draw✓ Hit
26.4%
Avg Implied 24.4% · @ 3.71
Edge
+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
4.20
Dafabet
3.85
Betano
3.80
Superbet
3.75
BetVictor
3.75
Dundela win✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied 18.8% · @ 4.81
Edge
+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
5.40
10Bet
5.25
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
1xBet
4.98
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ards
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.30
1.23
1.46
1.71
1.18
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.17
1.50
0.86
1.43
1.36
1.55
vs Weaker (12)
2.00
1.00
1.67
1.50
2.33
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundela
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.90
1.20
1.80
1.13
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.00
1.62
1.00
1.86
1.00
1.44
vs Weaker (14)
1.36
2.21
1.38
1.75
1.33
2.83
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.5%
@ 1.22+4.6%
Under 1.5
20.5%
@ 3.63-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Under
Unibet
3.95
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.58
Marathonbet
3.58
Superbet
3.55
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.2%
@ 1.73+2.2%
Under 2.5
44.8%
@ 1.96-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
1xBet
1.76
BetVictor
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
Under
Unibet
2.10
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.93
Betano
1.93
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.8%
@ 2.70-0.8%
Under 3.5
67.2%
@ 1.37+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.83
Marathonbet
2.83
Superbet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Pinnacle
2.66
Under
Unibet
1.43
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.35
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.4%
@ 1.76+6.4%
No
41.6%
@ 1.91-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.83
BetVictor
1.78
Superbet
1.77
1xBet
1.75
Unibet
1.75
No
Superbet
1.95
Unibet
1.94
BetVictor
1.93
1xBet
1.93
William Hil
1.91
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%@ 6.75+6.2%
2-1
9.5%@ 7.33+3.7%
1-0
8.1%@ 6.50+1.6%
2-0
7.7%@ 7.17+1.9%
1-2
6.9%@ 13.83+3.9%
0-0
6.7%@ 11.00+2.8%
2-2 ✓
5.8%@ 13.67+2.7%
0-1
5.6%@ 13.00+2.4%
Ards goals ↓
Dundela goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
5.6%
4.1%
1.7%
0.5%
1
8.1%
12%
6.9%
2.8%
0.9%
2
7.7%
9.5%
5.8%
2.4%
0.7%
3
4.3%
5.3%
3.2%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.8%
2.2%
1.3%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ards goals (down), columns = Dundela goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Ards is 0.80 points better than Dundela in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 0.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Ards is 0.40 goals better than Dundela in terms of goals scored per game (1.80 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Ards is 0.20 goals better than Dundela in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ards
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.43
0.46
0.46
0.82
0.41
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.50
0.43
0.43
0.55
0.55
vs Weaker (12)
0.92
0.33
0.50
0.50
1.33
0.17
Clean sheet %
67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundela
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.73
0.53
0.53
0.33
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.25
0.62
0.29
0.86
0.22
0.44
vs Weaker (14)
0.64
0.86
0.75
0.25
0.50
1.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ards over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ards
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.87
0.77
1.00
0.88
0.76
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.67
1.00
0.43
1.00
0.82
1.00
vs Weaker (12)
1.08
0.67
1.17
1.00
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundela
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.17
0.67
1.27
0.80
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.75
1.00
0.71
1.00
0.78
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
0.71
1.36
0.62
1.50
0.83
1.17
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ards over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
+4.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →