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Ards vs Institute Prediction & Stats

Date: 16/10/2026
Time: 18:45
Ards
Ards
Vs
31%
26%
43%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Institute
Institute
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Ards are tipped to lose as the model favours an Institute victory, with a 43% chance of the away side winning, a 31% chance of a home win and a 26% chance of a draw. The expected total goals is 3.0, but the most likely total is two, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 12.3%. Ards, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, average 1.0 goal scored and 1.25 conceded. Institute, on the road, average 1.29 scored and 2.14 conceded against comparable teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.8%), Under 6.5 (96.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.1%), Under 5.5 (91.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (91.6%), Away +2 handicap (85.9%), Home under 2.5 goals (84.5%) and Under 4.5 (81.7%). The recent form shows Ards with two straight defeats before a 0-3 loss to Queen’s University, while Institute also suffered two defeats before a 1-3 loss to Newry City AFC.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ards win
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Institute win
43.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ArdsArds

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L21W13L10W31W22D31W12L03LA·BAL28/03H·DUN04/04H·ARM10/04A·INS18/04A·WAR25/04A·GLE08/08H·DUN11/08A·WAR15/08H·LOU22/08H·QUE28/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.301.291.361.811.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.181.531.001.251.331.78
vs Weaker (13)2.081.001.671.502.430.57
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

InstituteInstitute

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W00D30W31W41W10W12L00D14L13LA·DUN28/03H·WAR04/04H·BAL11/04H·ARD18/04A·ARM25/04A·STR07/08H·BAL11/08H·LOU15/08A·QUE22/08H·NEW29/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.331.671.201.531.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.431.501.570.861.292.14
vs Weaker (16)1.751.191.751.501.750.88
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.1%
Under 1.5
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.5%
Under 2.5
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.1%
Under 3.5
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.9%
No
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-2
9.1%
2-1
7.5%
0-1
7.1%
0-2
6.7%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
6.1%
1-0
5.7%
Ards goals ↓
Institute goals →
01234
06.1%7.1%6.7%3.7%1.5%
15.7%12%9.1%5.0%2.0%
24.6%7.5%6.2%3.4%1.4%
32.1%3.4%2.8%1.5%0.6%
40.7%1.2%0.9%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ards goals (down), columns = Institute goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Ards is 0.60 points better than Institute in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 0.80).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Ards is 1.00 goals better than Institute in terms of goals scored per game (1.80 vs 0.80).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Ards and Institute are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.80).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ards or Draw
57.0%
Avg Implied -
31%
26%
43%
covers Ards + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ards or Institute
73.7%
Avg Implied -
31%
26%
43%
covers Ards + Institute
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Institute
69.4%
Avg Implied -
31%
26%
43%
covers Draw + Institute
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ards over/under 0.5
Over
74.2%
Under
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5
Over
39.2%
Under
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5
Over
15.5%
Under
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 3.5
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 0.5
Over
80.5%
Under
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 1.5
Over
48.7%
Under
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 2.5
Over
22.6%
Under
77.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 3.5
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Ards, so a minus line means Ards give that many goals of a start and Institute receive them. At -1, Ards must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ards win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ards)
Ards -2
4.9%
Draw -2
9.1%
Institute +2
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ards)
Ards -1
14.1%
Draw -1
16.6%
Institute +1
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ards)
Ards +1
57.0%
Draw +1
20.3%
Institute -1
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ards)
Ards +2
77.2%
Draw +2
13.3%
Institute -2
9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ArdsArds

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W01L10W01L10W10W00D10W11D02LA·BAL28/03H·DUN04/04H·ARM10/04A·INS18/04A·WAR25/04A·GLE08/08H·DUN11/08A·WAR15/08H·LOU22/08H·QUE28/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.470.500.500.880.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.530.590.500.500.560.67
vs Weaker (13)0.920.310.500.501.290.14
Clean sheet %67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

InstituteInstitute

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D30W10W10W10W00D00D11D01LA·DUN28/03H·WAR04/04H·BAL11/04H·ARD18/04A·ARM25/04A·STR07/08H·BAL11/08H·LOU15/08A·QUE22/08H·NEW29/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.470.800.400.530.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.570.570.430.140.711.00
vs Weaker (16)0.750.381.120.620.380.12
Clean sheet %67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ards over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ArdsArds

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D11D12L00D21W22D21W01L01LA·BAL28/03H·DUN04/04H·ARM10/04A·INS18/04A·WAR25/04A·GLE08/08H·DUN11/08A·WAR15/08H·LOU22/08H·QUE28/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.830.790.860.940.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.650.940.500.750.781.11
vs Weaker (13)1.150.691.171.001.140.43
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

InstituteInstitute

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D00D21W31W00D12L00D03L12LA·DUN28/03H·WAR04/04H·BAL11/04H·ARD18/04A·ARM25/04A·STR07/08H·BAL11/08H·LOU15/08A·QUE22/08H·NEW29/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.870.870.801.000.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.860.931.140.710.571.14
vs Weaker (16)1.000.810.620.881.380.75
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ards over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.8%-------
Under 6.596.7%-------
Home under 3.5 goals95.1%-------
Under 5.591.7%-------
Away under 3.5 goals91.6%-------
Away +2 handicap85.9%-------
Home under 2.5 goals84.5%-------
Under 4.581.7%-------
Over 1.581.1%-------
Away over 0.5 goals80.5%-------
Away under 2.5 goals77.4%-------
Home +2 handicap77.2%-------
Home over 0.5 goals74.2%-------
Home or Away73.7%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
ARD wins
4
Draws
2
INS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ards vs Institute · H/A from ARD
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26AInstitute Vs ARD3-1
24/01/26HARD Vs Institute0-0
25/10/25HARD Vs Institute0-3
16/08/25AInstitute Vs ARD2-2
18/03/25AInstitute Vs ARD2-3
16/11/24AInstitute Vs ARD2-4
28/09/24HARD Vs Institute0-0
27/01/24HARD Vs Institute2-2

ArdsArds

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HARD Vs Queen's University0-3
22/08/26HARD Vs Loughgall1-2
15/08/26AWarrenpoint Town Vs ARD1-3
11/08/26HARD Vs Dundela2-2
08/08/26AGlenavon FC Vs ARD1-3
25/04/26AWarrenpoint Town Vs ARD0-1
18/04/26AInstitute Vs ARD3-1
10/04/26HARD Vs Armagh City2-1
04/04/26HARD Vs Dundela0-1
28/03/26ABallinamallard United Vs ARD0-2

InstituteInstitute

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HINS Vs Newry City AFC1-3
22/08/26AQueen's University Vs INS4-1
15/08/26HINS Vs Loughgall0-0
11/08/26HINS Vs Ballinamallard United1-2
07/08/26AStrabane Athletic Vs INS0-1
25/04/26AArmagh City Vs INS1-4
18/04/26HINS Vs Ards3-1
11/04/26HINS Vs Ballinamallard United3-0
04/04/26HINS Vs Warrenpoint Town0-0
28/03/26ADundela Vs INS1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ards
Ards
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWLL1.34
HomeLWDLL1.33
AwayWLWWW1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%38%38%
AVG goals2.983.082.88
Over 1.5 %76%83%69%
Over 2.5 %60%71%50%
Over 3.5 %38%33%42%
Scored1.521.421.62
Conceded1.461.671.27
BTTS58%67%50%
Clean Sheet20%21%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Institute
Institute
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDLL1.46
HomeWWLDL1.48
AwayWWWWL1.43
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%41%43%
AVG goals3.043.112.96
Over 1.5 %74%70%78%
Over 2.5 %64%63%65%
Over 3.5 %38%37%39%
Scored1.581.631.52
Conceded1.461.481.43
BTTS56%56%57%
Clean Sheet28%33%22%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Newington YouthNewington Youth513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
2H&W WeldersH&W Welders512
80%
2.4
93+6
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.6
-
3Glenavon FCGlenavon FC510
60%
2.0
148+6
4.4
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.81.6
-
4QueenQueen's University510
60%
2.0
115+6
3.2
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5Annagh UnitedAnnagh United510
60%
2.0
129+3
4.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.8
-
6LoughgallLoughgall59
40%
1.8
107+3
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
7Newry City AFCNewry City AFC59
60%
1.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
8ArdsArds57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
10Moyola ParkMoyola Park57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United56
40%
1.2
58-3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12InstituteInstitute54
20%
0.8
49-5
2.6
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
13DundelaDundela53
0%
0.6
710-3
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
14Strabane AthleticStrabane Athletic53
20%
0.6
610-4
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
15Armagh CityArmagh City52
0%
0.4
37-4
2.0
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
16RathfrilandRathfriland50
0%
0.0
516-11
4.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.2
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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