PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Ards vs Newington Youth Result & Analysis

Date: 10/12/2022
Time: 15:00
Final 2-1
Ards
Ards
Vs
43%
25%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Newington Youth
Newington Youth
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Ards win✓ Hit
43.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth win✗ Miss
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

ArdsArds

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-641W02L21W16L20W12L52W33D41W11DA·KNO08/10A·INS15/10H·ANN22/10A·LOU29/10H·BAL05/11H·NEW08/11A·H&W12/11H·BAL19/11A·WAR26/11H·INS03/12
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.001.941.891.672.112.22
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)1.552.271.881.880.673.33
vs Weaker (7)2.711.432.000.002.831.67
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L12L10W34L13L21W14L02L43W01LA·LOU23/09A·DUN01/10A·H&W08/10H·BAL28/10A·ANN05/11A·ARD08/11H·INS12/11H·LOU19/11A·DUN25/11H·WAR03/12
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.752.122.122.621.381.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)2.092.452.332.671.802.20
vs Weaker (5)1.001.401.502.500.670.67
Clean sheet %6% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%120%222%318%412%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.0%
Under 1.5
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.5%
Under 2.5
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.6%
Under 3.5
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.1%
No
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
2-1 ✓
8.8%
1-2
7.6%
2-2
6.9%
2-0
5.6%
3-1
5.3%
1-0
5.2%
0-0
4.4%
Ards goals ↓
Newington Youth goals →
01234
04.4%4.4%4.2%2.2%0.8%
15.2%11%7.6%3.9%1.5%
25.6%8.8%6.9%3.6%1.4%
33.4%5.3%4.1%2.2%0.8%
41.5%2.4%1.9%1.0%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ards goals (down), columns = Newington Youth goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Loughgall
2.03
Warrenpoint Town
1.87
Annagh United
1.55
Dundela
1.53
Ards
1.47
Ballyclare Comrades
1.45
H&W Welders
1.45
Ballinamallard United
1.37
Dergview
1.08
Newington Youth
1.05
Knockbreda
1.00
Institute
1.00
Ballymacash Rangers
0.50
Ards is 0.42 points better than Newington Youth in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 1.05).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Loughgall
1.97
Ards
1.89
H&W Welders
1.82
Warrenpoint Town
1.76
Ballyclare Comrades
1.74
Newington Youth
1.61
Annagh United
1.53
Dundela
1.50
Dergview
1.34
Knockbreda
1.32
Ballinamallard United
1.32
Institute
1.32
Ballymacash Rangers
1.00
Ards is 0.29 goals better than Newington Youth in terms of goals scored per game (1.89 vs 1.61).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Loughgall
0.66
Annagh United
1.13
Warrenpoint Town
1.16
Dundela
1.53
Ballinamallard United
1.55
Institute
1.66
Ballyclare Comrades
1.66
H&W Welders
1.71
Dergview
1.79
Ards
1.97
Newington Youth
1.97
Ballymacash Rangers
2.00
Knockbreda
2.23
Ards and Newington Youth are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.97).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ArdsArds

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L10W01L20W01L01L21W11D00DA·KNO08/10A·INS15/10H·ANN22/10A·LOU29/10H·BAL05/11H·NEW08/11A·H&W12/11H·BAL19/11A·WAR26/11H·INS03/12
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.890.611.220.670.560.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.820.731.120.750.000.67
vs Weaker (7)1.000.432.000.000.830.50
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W10W32W03L10W03L01L31W01LA·LOU23/09A·DUN01/10A·H&W08/10H·BAL28/10A·ANN05/11A·ARD08/11H·INS12/11H·LOU19/11A·DUN25/11H·WAR03/12
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.121.191.251.621.000.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)1.181.361.171.671.201.00
vs Weaker (5)1.000.801.501.500.670.33
Clean sheet %25% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ards over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ArdsArds

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-531W01L11D15L00D11D51W12L30W11DA·KNO08/10A·INS15/10H·ANN22/10A·LOU29/10H·BAL05/11H·NEW08/11A·H&W12/11H·BAL19/11A·WAR26/11H·INS03/12
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.111.330.671.001.561.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.731.550.751.120.672.67
vs Weaker (7)1.711.000.000.002.001.17
Clean sheet %22% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L00D02L10W11D11D01L12L00DA·LOU23/09A·DUN01/10A·H&W08/10H·BAL28/10A·ANN05/11A·ARD08/11H·INS12/11H·LOU19/11A·DUN25/11H·WAR03/12
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.620.940.881.000.380.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.911.091.171.000.601.20
vs Weaker (5)0.000.600.001.000.000.33
Clean sheet %38% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ards over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
ARD wins
0
Draws
1
NY wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ards vs Newington Youth · H/A from ARD
DateH/AGameScore
08/11/22HARD Vs Newington Youth1-2

ArdsArds

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/12/22HARD Vs Institute1-1
26/11/22AWarrenpoint Town Vs ARD1-4
19/11/22HARD Vs Ballyclare Comrades3-3
12/11/22AH&W Welders Vs ARD2-5
08/11/22HARD Vs Newington Youth1-2
05/11/22HARD Vs Ballinamallard United2-0
29/10/22ALoughgall Vs ARD6-1
22/10/22HARD Vs Annagh United2-1
15/10/22AInstitute Vs ARD2-0
08/10/22AKnockbreda Vs ARD1-4

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/12/22HNY Vs Warrenpoint Town0-1
25/11/22ADundela Vs NY3-4
19/11/22HNY Vs Loughgall0-2
12/11/22HNY Vs Institute1-4
08/11/22AArds Vs NY1-2
05/11/22AAnnagh United Vs NY3-1
28/10/22HNY Vs Ballinamallard United3-4
08/10/22AH&W Welders Vs NY0-1
01/10/22ADundela Vs NY2-1
23/09/22ALoughgall Vs NY2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ards
Ards
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWD1.61
HomeWWLDD1.89
AwayWLLWW1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%56%44%
AVG goals3.943.564.33
Over 1.5 %94%89%100%
Over 2.5 %72%67%78%
Over 3.5 %44%33%56%
Scored2.001.892.11
Conceded1.941.672.22
BTTS72%67%78%
Clean Sheet17%22%11%
Corners---
Cards---
Newington Youth
Newington Youth
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWL1.06
HomeWLLLL0.88
AwayLWLWW1.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %31%25%38%
AVG goals3.884.753.00
Over 1.5 %81%88%75%
Over 2.5 %69%75%62%
Over 3.5 %50%75%25%
Scored1.752.121.38
Conceded2.122.621.62
BTTS75%75%75%
Clean Sheet6%0%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LoughgallLoughgall3877
61%
2.0
7525+50
2.6
71%
50%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.7
-
2Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town3871
55%
1.9
6744+23
2.9
84%
53%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
3Annagh UnitedAnnagh United3859
45%
1.6
5843+15
2.7
84%
63%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
4DundelaDundela3858
47%
1.5
5758-1
3.0
74%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
5ArdsArds3856
45%
1.5
7275-3
3.9
89%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.92.0
-
6H&W WeldersH&W Welders3855
45%
1.4
6965+4
3.5
79%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
7Ballyclare ComradesBallyclare Comrades3855
37%
1.4
6663+3
3.4
84%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.7
-
8Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United3852
37%
1.4
5059-9
2.9
84%
55%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
9DergviewDergview3841
29%
1.1
5168-17
3.1
82%
66%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.8
-
10Newington YouthNewington Youth3840
29%
1.1
6175-14
3.6
89%
68%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.0
-
11KnockbredaKnockbreda4040
25%
1.0
5389-36
3.5
85%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.2
-
12InstituteInstitute3838
26%
1.0
5063-13
3.0
82%
45%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
13Ballymacash RangersBallymacash Rangers21
0%
0.5
24-2
3.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

← all matches