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Ards vs Rathfriland Prediction & Stats

Date: 12/09/2026
Time: 14:00
Ards
Ards
Vs
50%
24%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Rathfriland
Rathfriland
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Ards enter the match on a shaky run, having lost their opening game before winning two of the next three, yet they have been able to keep the scoreline close, conceding only 1.5 goals on average at home against weaker opposition. Rathfriland, however, has suffered four straight defeats, has struggled to score away from home, and has given up four goals on average against stronger teams. The model therefore favours a home win, with a 52 % chance, a draw at 23 % and an away win at 25 %. The expected total of 3.4 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 10.4 % probability. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (97.8 %), Away under 3.5 goals (95.2 %), Under 6.5 (94.5 %), Home +2 handicap (89.1 %), Under 5.5 (87.5 %), Home over 0.5 goals (86.7 %), Over 1.5 (85.8 %) and Home under 3.5 goals (85.5 %).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ards win
50.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland win
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ArdsArds

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L21W13L10W31W22D31W12L03LA·BAL28/03H·DUN04/04H·ARM10/04A·INS18/04A·WAR25/04A·GLE08/08H·DUN11/08A·WAR15/08H·LOU22/08H·QUE28/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.301.291.361.811.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.181.531.001.251.331.78
vs Weaker (13)2.081.001.671.502.430.57
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Rathfriland) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RathfrilandRathfriland

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L24L12L04L13LH·LOU08/08A·ANN11/08H·NEW15/08A·NEW22/08A·GLE28/08
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
3.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.003.201.002.501.003.67
vs Stronger (5)1.003.201.002.501.003.67
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %0% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.8%
Under 1.5
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.3%
Under 2.5
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.4%
Under 3.5
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
65.6%
No
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
6.8%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
6.5%
3-1
6.2%
1-0
5.9%
3-0
4.5%
Ards goals ↓
Rathfriland goals →
01234
04.4%3.9%3.3%1.5%0.5%
15.9%10%6.6%3.0%1.1%
26.8%9.4%6.5%3.0%1.0%
34.5%6.2%4.3%2.0%0.7%
42.2%3.1%2.1%1.0%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ards goals (down), columns = Rathfriland goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Ards is 1.40 points better than Rathfriland in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 0.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Ards is 0.80 goals better than Rathfriland in terms of goals scored per game (1.80 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Ards is 1.40 goals better than Rathfriland in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 3.20).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ards or Draw
74.1%
Avg Implied -
50%
24%
26%
covers Ards + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ards or Rathfriland
76.3%
Avg Implied -
50%
24%
26%
covers Ards + Rathfriland
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Rathfriland
49.7%
Avg Implied -
50%
24%
26%
covers Draw + Rathfriland
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ards over/under 0.5
Over
86.2%
Under
13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5
Over
58.8%
Under
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5
Over
31.7%
Under
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 3.5
Over
13.9%
Under
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 0.5
Over
75.0%
Under
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 1.5
Over
40.3%
Under
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 2.5
Over
16.3%
Under
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 3.5
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Ards, so a minus line means Ards give that many goals of a start and Rathfriland receive them. At -1, Ards must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ards win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ards)
Ards -2
14.2%
Draw -2
15.5%
Rathfriland +2
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ards)
Ards -1
29.7%
Draw -1
20.7%
Rathfriland +1
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ards)
Ards +1
74.1%
Draw +1
14.2%
Rathfriland -1
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ards)
Ards +2
88.3%
Draw +2
7.6%
Rathfriland -2
4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ArdsArds

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W01L10W01L10W10W00D10W11D02LA·BAL28/03H·DUN04/04H·ARM10/04A·INS18/04A·WAR25/04A·GLE08/08H·DUN11/08A·WAR15/08H·LOU22/08H·QUE28/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.470.500.500.880.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.530.590.500.500.560.67
vs Weaker (13)0.920.310.500.501.290.14
Clean sheet %67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Rathfriland) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RathfrilandRathfriland

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L03L02L03L02LH·LOU08/08A·ANN11/08H·NEW15/08A·NEW22/08A·GLE28/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.002.200.001.500.002.67
vs Stronger (5)0.002.200.001.500.002.67
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %0% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.0%
Under 0.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.8%
Under 1.5
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.1%
Under 2.5
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ards over/under 0.5 HT
Over
64.1%
Under
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 HT
Over
28.6%
Under
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 0.5 HT
Over
32.2%
Under
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ArdsArds

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D11D12L00D21W22D21W01L01LA·BAL28/03H·DUN04/04H·ARM10/04A·INS18/04A·WAR25/04A·GLE08/08H·DUN11/08A·WAR15/08H·LOU22/08H·QUE28/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.830.790.860.940.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.650.940.500.750.781.11
vs Weaker (13)1.150.691.171.001.140.43
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Rathfriland) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RathfrilandRathfriland

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L21W10W01L11DH·LOU08/08A·ANN11/08H·NEW15/08A·NEW22/08A·GLE28/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.001.001.001.001.00
vs Stronger (5)1.001.001.001.001.001.00
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.2%
Under 0.5
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
50.9%
Under 1.5
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.4%
Under 2.5
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ards over/under 0.5 2H
Over
68.8%
Under
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 2H
Over
35.2%
Under
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 2H
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 0.5 2H
Over
36.6%
Under
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals99.3%-------
Away under 2.5 2H goals98.7%-------
Under 7.597.8%-------
Away under 1.5 HT goals94.9%-------
Away under 3.5 goals94.8%-------
Under 6.594.5%-------
Home under 2.5 HT goals93.2%-------
Away under 1.5 2H goals90.3%-------
Home under 2.5 2H goals88.6%-------
Home +2 handicap88.3%-------
Under 5.587.5%-------
Home over 0.5 goals86.2%-------
Home under 3.5 goals86.1%-------
Over 1.585.8%-------
Away under 2.5 goals83.7%-------
Under 2.5 HT goals81.9%-------
Over 0.5 2H goals81.2%-------
Home or Away76.3%-------
Under 2.5 2H goals75.6%-------
Under 4.575.1%-------
Away over 0.5 goals75.0%-------
Home or Draw74.1%-------
Home +1 handicap74.1%-------
Over 0.5 HT goals74.0%-------
Home under 1.5 HT goals71.4%-------
Away +2 handicap70.3%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
ARD wins
0
Draws
0
RAT wins

Head-to-head

Ards vs Rathfriland · H/A from ARD
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

ArdsArds

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HARD Vs Queen's University0-3
22/08/26HARD Vs Loughgall1-2
15/08/26AWarrenpoint Town Vs ARD1-3
11/08/26HARD Vs Dundela2-2
08/08/26AGlenavon FC Vs ARD1-3
25/04/26AWarrenpoint Town Vs ARD0-1
18/04/26AInstitute Vs ARD3-1
10/04/26HARD Vs Armagh City2-1
04/04/26HARD Vs Dundela0-1
28/03/26ABallinamallard United Vs ARD0-2

RathfrilandRathfriland

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26AGlenavon FC Vs RAT3-1
22/08/26ANewington Youth Vs RAT4-0
15/08/26HRAT Vs Newry City AFC1-2
11/08/26AAnnagh United Vs RAT4-2
08/08/26HRAT Vs Loughgall1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ards
Ards
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWLL1.34
HomeLWDLL1.33
AwayWLWWW1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%38%38%
AVG goals2.983.082.88
Over 1.5 %76%83%69%
Over 2.5 %60%71%50%
Over 3.5 %38%33%42%
Scored1.521.421.62
Conceded1.461.671.27
BTTS58%67%50%
Clean Sheet20%21%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Rathfriland
Rathfriland
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 0 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.00
HomeLL0.00
AwayLLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %0%0%0%
AVG goals4.203.504.67
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %100%100%100%
Over 3.5 %80%50%100%
Scored1.001.001.00
Conceded3.202.503.67
BTTS80%100%67%
Clean Sheet0%0%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Newington YouthNewington Youth513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
2H&W WeldersH&W Welders512
80%
2.4
93+6
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.6
-
3Glenavon FCGlenavon FC510
60%
2.0
148+6
4.4
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.81.6
-
4QueenQueen's University510
60%
2.0
115+6
3.2
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5Annagh UnitedAnnagh United510
60%
2.0
129+3
4.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.8
-
6LoughgallLoughgall59
40%
1.8
107+3
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
7Newry City AFCNewry City AFC59
60%
1.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
8ArdsArds57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
10Moyola ParkMoyola Park57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United56
40%
1.2
58-3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12InstituteInstitute54
20%
0.8
49-5
2.6
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
13DundelaDundela53
0%
0.6
710-3
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
14Strabane AthleticStrabane Athletic53
20%
0.6
610-4
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
15Armagh CityArmagh City52
0%
0.4
37-4
2.0
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
16RathfrilandRathfriland50
0%
0.0
516-11
4.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.2
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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