Ards, who have been struggling after a recent defeat, look set to exploit Strabane Athletic’s defensive frailties, as the model projects a high-scoring affair with an average of 3.3 goals. The most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 11.1% probability, while the model’s pick for the match result is a home win. Home form shows Ards averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against weaker opposition, whereas Strabane Athletic’s away performance against stronger teams is less convincing. The probabilities for the match result are 40% for a home win, 25% for a draw and 35% for an away win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 98.1%, Under 6.5 at 95.0%, Away under 3.5 goals at 92.4%, Home under 3.5 goals at 90.7%, Under 5.5 at 88.5%, Over 1.5 at 84.9%, Home +2 handicap at 82.5% and Home over 0.5 goals at 81.7%. Each of these selections is presented with its exact probability, reflecting the model’s confidence in a tightly contested, goal-rich match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ards win
36.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Strabane Athletic win
38.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ards
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.30
1.29
1.36
1.81
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.18
1.53
1.00
1.25
1.33
1.78
vs Weaker (13)
2.08
1.00
1.67
1.50
2.43
0.57
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Strabane Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Strabane Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
2.00
0.67
1.67
2.00
2.50
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.33
0.50
1.50
3.00
1.00
vs Similar (2)
1.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
4.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
0% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.9%
Under 1.5
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.6%
Under 2.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.5%
Under 3.5
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
65.9%
No
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.2%
2-2
6.8%
0-1
5.3%
0-2
5.2%
1-0
5.1%
2-0
4.9%
Ards goals ↓
Strabane Athletic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.8%
5.3%
5.2%
2.9%
1.2%
1
5.1%
11%
8.4%
4.7%
2.0%
2
4.9%
8.2%
6.8%
3.8%
1.6%
3
2.6%
4.4%
3.6%
2.0%
0.8%
4
1.1%
1.8%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ards goals (down), columns = Strabane Athletic goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Ards is 0.80 points better than Strabane Athletic in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 0.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Ards is 0.60 goals better than Strabane Athletic in terms of goals scored per game (1.80 vs 1.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Ards is 0.20 goals better than Strabane Athletic in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ards or Draw
61.4%
Avg Implied -
36%
25%
39%
covers Ards + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ards or Strabane Athletic
74.9%
Avg Implied -
36%
25%
39%
covers Ards + Strabane Athletic
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Strabane Athletic
63.8%
Avg Implied -
36%
25%
39%
covers Draw + Strabane Athletic
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ards over/under 0.5
Over
80.0%
Under
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5
Over
47.8%
Under
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5
Over
21.9%
Under
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 3.5
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strabane Athletic over/under 0.5
Over
81.1%
Under
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strabane Athletic over/under 1.5
Over
49.7%
Under
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strabane Athletic over/under 2.5
Over
23.4%
Under
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strabane Athletic over/under 3.5
Over
8.8%
Under
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ards, so a minus line means Ards give that many goals of a start and Strabane Athletic receive them. At -1, Ards must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ards win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ards)
Ards -2
7.4%
Draw -2
11.0%
Strabane Athletic +2
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ards)
Ards -1
18.4%
Draw -1
17.8%
Strabane Athletic +1
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ards)
Ards +1
61.4%
Draw +1
18.5%
Strabane Athletic -1
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ards)
Ards +2
79.8%
Draw +2
11.8%
Strabane Athletic -2
8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ards
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.47
0.50
0.50
0.88
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.59
0.50
0.50
0.56
0.67
vs Weaker (13)
0.92
0.31
0.50
0.50
1.29
0.14
Clean sheet %
67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Strabane Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Strabane Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.20
0.33
1.00
1.50
1.50
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
0% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ards over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strabane Athletic over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strabane Athletic over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strabane Athletic over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ards
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.83
0.79
0.86
0.94
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.94
0.50
0.75
0.78
1.11
vs Weaker (13)
1.15
0.69
1.17
1.00
1.14
0.43
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Strabane Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Strabane Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.80
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ards over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strabane Athletic over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strabane Athletic over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strabane Athletic over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →