PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Ards vs Warrenpoint Town Result & Analysis

Date: 11/04/2023
Time: 18:45
Final 1-0
Ards
Ards
Vs
30%
24%
46%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Warrenpoint Town
Warrenpoint Town
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Ards win✓ Hit
29.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town win✗ Miss
45.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

ArdsArds

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L23L03L32W12L20W22D41W51W05LH·H&W11/02A·BAL14/02H·LOU18/02A·DER25/02A·DER28/02H·ANN04/03A·NEW14/03H·KNO18/03A·DUN25/03A·LOU08/04
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.971.971.931.502.002.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.742.001.801.401.672.67
vs Weaker (11)2.361.912.251.752.432.00
Clean sheet %10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D41W13L10W21W12L21W23L30W11DA·BAL04/02A·KNO11/02H·LOU14/02A·ANN18/02H·BAL25/02A·DUN04/03H·INS11/03A·BAL18/03H·DER25/03H·DUN08/04
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.931.132.001.061.851.23
vs Stronger (27)2.001.152.071.071.921.25
vs Similar (3)1.331.001.501.001.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
85.7%
Under 1.5
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
65.1%
Under 2.5
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.1%
Under 3.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.3%
No
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
1-2
9.1%
2-1
7.2%
2-2
6.7%
0-2
6.1%
1-3
5.6%
0-1
5.6%
0-0
4.5%
Ards goals ↓
Warrenpoint Town goals →
01234
04.5%5.6%6.1%3.8%1.8%
14.2%11%9.1%5.6%2.6%
23.9%7.2%6.7%4.2%2.0%
31.9%3.6%3.3%2.1%1.0%
40.7%1.3%1.2%0.8%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ards goals (down), columns = Warrenpoint Town goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Loughgall
2.03
Warrenpoint Town
1.87
Annagh United
1.55
Dundela
1.53
Ards
1.47
Ballyclare Comrades
1.45
H&W Welders
1.45
Ballinamallard United
1.37
Dergview
1.08
Newington Youth
1.05
Knockbreda
1.00
Institute
1.00
Ballymacash Rangers
0.50
Ards is 0.39 points worse than Warrenpoint Town in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 1.87).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Loughgall
1.97
Ards
1.89
H&W Welders
1.82
Warrenpoint Town
1.76
Ballyclare Comrades
1.74
Newington Youth
1.61
Annagh United
1.53
Dundela
1.50
Dergview
1.34
Knockbreda
1.32
Ballinamallard United
1.32
Institute
1.32
Ballymacash Rangers
1.00
Ards is 0.13 goals better than Warrenpoint Town in terms of goals scored per game (1.89 vs 1.76).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Loughgall
0.66
Annagh United
1.13
Warrenpoint Town
1.16
Dundela
1.53
Ballinamallard United
1.55
Institute
1.66
Ballyclare Comrades
1.66
H&W Welders
1.71
Dergview
1.79
Ards
1.97
Newington Youth
1.97
Ballymacash Rangers
2.00
Knockbreda
2.23
Ards is 0.82 goals worse than Warrenpoint Town in terms of goals conceded per game (1.97 vs 1.16).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ArdsArds

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L01L21W10W10W11D00D11D02LH·H&W11/02A·BAL14/02H·LOU18/02A·DER25/02A·DER28/02H·ANN04/03A·NEW14/03H·KNO18/03A·DUN25/03A·LOU08/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.601.070.430.620.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.890.681.100.400.671.00
vs Weaker (11)0.730.451.000.500.570.43
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W01L10W01L01L10W11D20W01LA·BAL04/02A·KNO11/02H·LOU14/02A·ANN18/02H·BAL25/02A·DUN04/03H·INS11/03A·BAL18/03H·DER25/03H·DUN08/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.430.880.410.770.46
vs Stronger (27)0.890.440.930.400.830.50
vs Similar (3)0.330.330.500.500.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ards over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ArdsArds

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L22D02L11D02L10W11D41W40W03LH·H&W11/02A·BAL14/02H·LOU18/02A·DER25/02A·DER28/02H·ANN04/03A·NEW14/03H·KNO18/03A·DUN25/03A·LOU08/04
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.370.861.071.381.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.841.320.701.001.001.67
vs Weaker (11)1.641.451.251.251.861.57
Clean sheet %20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D21W12L00D20W11D11D12L10W10WA·BAL04/02A·KNO11/02H·LOU14/02A·ANN18/02H·BAL25/02A·DUN04/03H·INS11/03A·BAL18/03H·DER25/03H·DUN08/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.701.120.651.080.77
vs Stronger (27)1.110.701.130.671.080.75
vs Similar (3)1.000.671.000.501.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ards over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.7%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
ARD wins
0
Draws
2
WT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ards vs Warrenpoint Town · H/A from ARD
DateH/AGameScore
21/01/23HARD Vs Warrenpoint Town3-5
26/11/22AWarrenpoint Town Vs ARD1-4
03/09/22AWarrenpoint Town Vs ARD2-1

ArdsArds

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/04/23ALoughgall Vs ARD5-0
25/03/23ADundela Vs ARD1-5
18/03/23HARD Vs Knockbreda4-1
14/03/23ANewington Youth Vs ARD2-2
04/03/23HARD Vs Annagh United2-0
28/02/23ADergview Vs ARD2-1
25/02/23ADergview Vs ARD2-3
18/02/23HARD Vs Loughgall0-3
14/02/23ABallyclare Comrades Vs ARD3-2
11/02/23HARD Vs H&W Welders0-1

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/04/23HWT Vs Dundela1-1
25/03/23HWT Vs Dergview3-0
18/03/23ABallyclare Comrades Vs WT3-2
11/03/23HWT Vs Institute2-1
04/03/23ADundela Vs WT2-1
25/02/23HWT Vs Ballinamallard United2-1
18/02/23AAnnagh United Vs WT0-1
14/02/23HWT Vs Loughgall1-3
11/02/23AKnockbreda Vs WT1-4
04/02/23ABallinamallard United Vs WT1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ards
Ards
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWL1.38
HomeLLLWW1.69
AwayWLDWL1.11
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %41%50%33%
AVG goals3.853.504.17
Over 1.5 %91%88%94%
Over 2.5 %71%62%78%
Over 3.5 %47%31%61%
Scored1.881.811.94
Conceded1.971.692.22
BTTS71%62%78%
Clean Sheet12%19%6%
Corners---
Cards---
Warrenpoint Town
Warrenpoint Town
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWD1.88
HomeLWWWD2.11
AwayDWWLL1.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%67%44%
AVG goals3.003.062.94
Over 1.5 %85%89%81%
Over 2.5 %53%61%44%
Over 3.5 %29%33%25%
Scored1.821.891.75
Conceded1.181.171.19
BTTS62%56%69%
Clean Sheet26%33%19%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LoughgallLoughgall3877
61%
2.0
7525+50
2.6
71%
50%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.7
-
2Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town3871
55%
1.9
6744+23
2.9
84%
53%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
3Annagh UnitedAnnagh United3859
45%
1.6
5843+15
2.7
84%
63%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
4DundelaDundela3858
47%
1.5
5758-1
3.0
74%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
5ArdsArds3856
45%
1.5
7275-3
3.9
89%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.92.0
-
6H&W WeldersH&W Welders3855
45%
1.4
6965+4
3.5
79%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
7Ballyclare ComradesBallyclare Comrades3855
37%
1.4
6663+3
3.4
84%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.7
-
8Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United3852
37%
1.4
5059-9
2.9
84%
55%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
9DergviewDergview3841
29%
1.1
5168-17
3.1
82%
66%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.8
-
10Newington YouthNewington Youth3840
29%
1.1
6175-14
3.6
89%
68%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.0
-
11KnockbredaKnockbreda4040
25%
1.0
5389-36
3.5
85%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.2
-
12InstituteInstitute3838
26%
1.0
5063-13
3.0
82%
45%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
13Ballymacash RangersBallymacash Rangers21
0%
0.5
24-2
3.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

← all matches