Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC Result & Analysis

Aris Thessalonikis will look to keep their five-game winning streak alive, but the odds favour an AEK Athens FC away victory. The model assigns a 47% chance to the away win, 27% to a draw and 26% to a home win, making the AEK win the single most likely outcome. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, with the most probable scoreline being 1-1 at 12.8%. Aris, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while AEK, on the road to a weaker opponent, averages 1.89 goals scored and 1.11 conceded. The model’s selections include an over 1.5 goals at 77.9%, an over 2.5 cards at 93.0%, an over 19.5 fouls at 98.1%, an over 21.5 fouls at 95.3%, an over 23.5 fouls at 89.8%, an over 25.5 fouls at 81.1%, an over 3.5 cards at 83.3% and an under 11.5 corners at 75.4%. Each pick is presented with its probability, and the overall match probabilities are 26% home win, 27% draw, 47% away win.

Aris Thessalonikis, riding a five-game winning streak at home, shocked the pre-match favourite AEK Athens FC, who had been unbeaten on the road. The final score was 3-3, a draw that left the model’s pick of an away win wrong. The model had given the away side a 47% chance of victory, but the match finished level. Every suggested selection from the model hit: Over 19.5 fouls at 98.1%, Over 21.5 fouls at 95.3%, Over 2.5 cards at 93.0%, Over 23.5 fouls at 89.8%, Over 3.5 cards at 83.3%, Over 25.5 fouls at 81.1%, Over 1.5 goals at 77.9%, and Under 11.5 corners at 75.4%. The outcome was a surprise, proving that even a strong home run can be overturned by a resilient away side.