Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI Result & Analysis

Aris Thessalonikis are the clear favourites, with a 56% chance of victory, 26% for a draw and 17% that OFI will win. The model predicts an average of 2.5 goals, most likely a 2-goal match, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.5% probability. Aris, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 0.5 conceded, while OFI, on the road, averages 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded. The suggested selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 99%, Over 21.5 fouls at 97.2%, Over 23.5 fouls at 93.5%, Over 25.5 fouls at 87%, Over 2.5 cards at 86.8%, Under 11.5 corners at 84.9%, Under 10.5 corners at 76.4% and Under 3.5 at 75.5%. Aris are on a five-game winning streak, having beaten OFI 2-1 last time, while OFI are coming off a loss to Aris 1-2. The match is likely to see a tight contest, with Aris holding the edge but a 1-1 draw remaining a realistic outcome.

The 1-1 draw stunned the pre-match favourite, Aris Thessalonikis, who had been on a five-game winning run at home. The model had tipped a home win with a 56% probability, but the result was a stalemate, so the model’s call was wrong. The match finished 1-1, matching the most likely score of 1-1 at 12.5% probability. The only other selection, Under 3.5 goals, hit its 75.5% target. The outcome reflected the balanced form: Aris had been scoring an average of one goal per game while conceding half, whereas OFI had been conceding 1.67 goals on average. The game ended in a draw, leaving the model’s prediction off the mark.